The 35 Senate seats up for grabs in NOV

realclearpolitics and Wikipedia | 8/14/18 | me

[dware]

making the Senate mostly RINO-proof.

Until the RINO party sits the noobs down and helps them understand that they WILL follow the RINO playbook.

[SomeCallMeTim]

Thanks Teach! Excellent analysis.

I have always felt pretty good about this Senate election. The Dems are still defending a bunch of seats they won because Obama was on the ballot in 2012.

The Senate map starts getting harder for Republicans next time... in 2020. But, for now? It looks good for us to hold the Senate, and THAT is the MOST important thing for Trump, and America. It means: Judges get confirmed.

[pacificus]

If that’s the result, then the media and libtards can feel good about all of their destructive bull-$hit!!!

Because they will see that as a win for them.

I can’t for the life of me get past the idea that the Trump voters are going to let that happen.

Polls be damned.

[DoodleDawg]

Because they will see that as a win for them.

It would be a win for them.

[pacificus]

I’ve come to understand it’s the staff and donors of the RINO’s that are the swamp.

Watch Ryan’s spokesperson denounce Trump every time Trump send out a fire tweet before the tweet even gets read by Rino-Ryan.

Draining the swamp means $hitcanning those RINO staffers!

[DoodleDawg]

We will gain seats in the house too!

Blue is collapsing of their own deeds.

We'll see in 12 weeks, won't we?

[editor-surveyor]

.
The more you hear from the MSM, the better we are doing.

They’re usually pretty quiet when the Dems are doing ok.

[tennmountainman]

Don’t know what t think.
I wasn’t on the jury and did not hear or read the testimony.

[hoosiermama]

Agree. It’s the staffers that are the problem. The scum of the swamp.

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

Republicans have 51 senators at present.

Of those,

• 22 were (re)elected in 2016,
• 24 were (re)elected in 2014, and only
• 8 were (re)elected in 2012 (Obama’s reelection year).

That totals to 54, but there has been some attrition (Session’s seat, for example).

In the absence of a seismic event, it figures that there would be some reversion to the mean. Assuming parity between the parties, the mean would be half of 33 and 1/3, or about 17 seats won in the “average” (as if there were such a thing) election. So even if the mean is parity, the Republicans “should" pick up an additional 8 or 9 seats this November. If the results of the past two elections were “the new normal," the Republicans “should" pick up an additional 14 seats this November.

Your study suggests that the Republicans will probably not get 8 additional seats, let alone 14. I sure hope that the results of 2014 and 2016 do not revert to parity in 2020 and 2022, but if they do, the Republicans will be in big trouble if they don’t improve substantially on the results of 2012 this year.

A week can be an eternity in politics, so a lot can happen to upset any predictions now of what will happen Nov. 6, so who knows. I sure hope something like spokeshave2’s prediction does the trick for the Republicans.

[cowboyusa]

GOP loses 17 House seats, and gains 8 senate seats is my call.

[deport]

TEX (Trump +9): Cruz (R) +6 (the fact that TEXAS is this close
gets Dems excited... but that 9% = 813,000 votes to overcome)

*************

Cruz will win. This election is a statewide
race for government positions, Gov on down.

[longtermmemmory]

I would welcome the cnn/msnbc/old media meltdown if there are gains in both houses.

[jyo19]

How is Manchin not in jail for some of the shit he’s pulled? Why isn’t Morrissey hammering on the air 24/7 about how his daughter got a no-work degree from WVU because of his influence? How is he not saying that Manhin’s wife mandated school districts had to pay THEIR DAUGHTER’S COMPANY, Mylan, hundreds extra for epi-pens that she mandated they have? How is the whole family not in jail?

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

My prediction since the beginning of the year was and is: GOP pickups...in the Senate: Six to Twelve seats. In the house, GOP will pickup twelve to twenty seats.

Sure hope you’re right. Ping to my #17.

[Repeal The 17th]

My opinion:
Democrats retain (16):
California
Connecticut
Delaware
Hawaii
Maryland
Massachusetts
Minnesota 1
Minnesota 2
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
Rhode Island
Virginia
Washington
Maine
Vermont
- - -
Republicans retain (9):
Arizona
Mississippi
Nebraska
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Wyoming
Mississippi
Nevada
- - -
Flip from D to R (5):
Indiana
Missouri
Montana
North Dakota
West Virginia
- - -
Battleground (5):
Florida
Michigan
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
- - -

[MarMema]

(3) The close Trump win states, but likely DEM wins... MI (Trump +0.3): Stabenow (D) currently polling at +18

The fat lady is not singing yet.

[cowboyusa]

17 at the most.

[FLT-bird]

The Republican leads in 5, not 4. You forgot to count Rick Scott who leads Bill Nelson. I’d bet dollars to donuts Scott wins that election.

I’m a bit concerned about Tennessee. I’m hopeful Marsha Blackburn wins it. I haven’t seen recent polling there.

I think Heitkamp in North Dakota, Donnelly in Indiana and McCaskill in Missouri go down.

I win in NJ would be stunning.

Nevada could go either way and Arizona looks like a tossup for that seat though I am simply stunned that an openly Lesbian Democrat could actually win a seat in Arizona. Figure the Democrat wins at least one of those two.

So I’ll conservatively estimate the Republicans gain a net +2 or +3 Senate seats. Not a great results but not bad and buys some insurance against Rinos getting wobbly.

[outofsalt]

"GOP loses 17 House seats, and gains 8 senate seats is my call."

If that happens and Manchin wins WV, he will switch parties in January.