Posted on 08/08/2018 6:56:21 AM PDT by LS
No matter what else you hear or read, keep this in mind: for the next three months Troy Balderson (R) will be voting in the US House, not a fruitball DemoKKKrat.
It's time we all readjust our thinking. There is too much analysis of how "red" or "blue" districts are, and, I think, a little too much expectation of a blowout because a district has a lot of Republicans.
While I don't watch the NFL anymore, this is akin to those games on the schedule where you used to say, "Oh, it's the Browns. The Dallas Cowboys should win by 30," and almost inevitably it would be a tight game. (Down memory lane: the Cowboys played the bad Buffalo Bills on MNF one night & Tony Romo threw five INTs . . . yet won the game in the last seconds---it was a great "game" and a terrible performance).
Anyway, I think this is the mindset the fake news media has been pushing us to all along: huge expectations of blowouts so they can then report on what a "disappointment" it was and how "close" it was and how the "DemoKKKrats can take satisfaction that, gee, they're really close."
Folks, our view must be to win is all that matters. By one point, by 50,000 votes, by 3 million. In November, if we have 226 seats, each won by a single vote, I'm thrilled. It does us no good to have 200 seats won in blowouts and lose 50 seats by razor-thin margins.
I think most of you would agree with that. Roy Moore left home 685,000 Republicans on election night. But we didn't need 685,000. We only needed 30,000 of them to hold a senate seat.
Now, as to the OH12 district itself: As some of you have already pointed out, the Rs got wise. They withheld a lot of Delaware (red) county's votes until all of Franklin (blue) had come in. Brilliant. This must be the strategy all over the US. (Note that this was what happened on election night 2016 in FL, MI, and PA. I don't recall how WI came in.
Second, it's obvious to anyone but the numbskull pus-bubbles on CNN that Trump literally carried Troy Balderson across the line kicking and screaming. I spoke with Richard Baris a lot yesterday, as well as with "OhioWan," my superb source in Ohio. They agreed that Balderson had seen a big (8-10 point) lead slip in the days prior to the election, and that Trump stopped the bleeding. FWIW, Baris also told me that in PA18, which we lost by 500 votes, Saccone was down six before Trump came in.
If candidates don't run arm-in-arm with Trump, EVEN IN RED DISTRICTS, they will be in trouble.
Third, and this is troubling: Ohio Wan told me that they were speaking with callers into the district who were telling the OH GOP that many of the Republicans they called in Licking, Franklin, and Delaware were not aware there was a special election taking place! (This was just prior to Trump's visit). I don't know how that's possible, but it does reinforce my position that especially on our side---but I think on both---there still is a lot of election fatigue.
The overall turnout was right at 200,000 on the low, low side of many pundits' predictions (some estimated it would be about 227,000).
Baris, @ABPatriotWriter Alex Bedhaze, and I all concur that high turnout in the Trump era HELPS Republicans, and it's important in November that the turnouts are higher.
Also, starting in the next couple of weeks, the OH GOP is sending mailers to all Republicans urging them to vote early, and to address concerns people have about voting early. The reason for this has to do with the GOP's research that shows that people voting early tend to vote more consistently the whole ticket/slate of candidates than people who vote in the booth. They find their down ticket races have much better results with a lot of early votes.
So, a good result. "Any airplane landing you walk away from is a good landing."
Now a word on AZ: I got word yesterday there is a major hitjob coming (I think in RollCall) on Kelli Ward's husband over "harassment" from a disgruntled staffer and a medical case brought years ago which resulted in a small judgment against him. I'm not going to go into details, but what the TIMING of this tells me is that the poll last week showing Kelli down about six or seven to McSally is deeply troubling to the Swamp and to McSally.
I'm certain this is a Swamp hit specifically because Ward has been strongly eating into Joe Arpaio's numbers. A few months ago, he was at 24% and even second in a poll. Now he's a distant third, at 15%, while Ward has jumped six points. Clearly she is pulling in the Joe voters who realize he can't win, and to vote for Joe is to nominate McSally. Ward's new ad "mentioning" (I would not say "attacking") Joe is very respectful and "nice," but says a senator needs to address all issues. Good ad.
Right now, AZ has about a 260,000 R advantage, but I expect that will grow by 3,000 or more in three weeks when the new registration numbers appear from the Secretary of State. We know about "red" and "blue" as I just said, but in theory, no Republican should lose an AZ senate seat. I think either Ward or McSally can beat Enema for different reasons (Ward will turn out more conservatives, McSally will turn out more indies). But what this new RollCall hit tells me is that the Swamp now is seriously concerned about Ward.
In that case it was because of candidates that looked like Yoda & Ernie (from ‘My Three Sons’!) respectively.
I would hope President Trump would call Sheriff Joe and ask him to take one for the team. But time running out with Primary Election a short time away...
Joe seems oblivious to his destructive position on the conservative candidate. Who are his “advisors” who are keeping him in?
50% vote required, or simple winner take all in AZ ?
Appreciated
Missouri also dumped right to work by a huge margin.
Any so-called "Republican" or "conservative" who advocates against the Trump Train is actually a Democrat.
Because it's ALL about the judges, as we have seen since the election.
ALL. ALL. ALL. ALL. ALL.
If the Democrats ever get back in control, Joe Scarborough might as well hand his children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren over to the pedophiles to be violated and sodomized, because that's what a Democrat Federal judge-president will "rule".
If McSally is using this then I believe you're right. They are very worried about Kelli Ward winning this primary. I've already voted and Kelli got my vote.
Arpaio could back out now and still get a lot of votes. The ballots are printed and lots of folks like myself have already voted via mail-in ballot.
Still; Arpaio should have never run but he can still do the right thing and bow out but I don't think he will. He accepted donations from a lot of people who expect him to follow through. Age not withstanding.
Democrats have traditionally held back ballot boxes in close races so they know how many votes are needed to 'stuff' the ballot box without it being obvious they're cheating. When our side holds back boxes - - Democrats will be forced to tip their hand and possibly waaaaay overdo it or not add enough.
Best thing the FBI could do is add fake names to the roles in tightly contested areas and when non-existent people 'vote' they can swoop in and arrest the criminals messing with our elections.
Traditionally voter fraud is directed by white elites but done in the black community. The 'no snitch' culture of the black community keeps people from coming forward and saying 'no, I didn't vote in the election'... So it's easy to 'vote the people who don't show up to vote'.
The defeat of Right to Work only emboldened unions/Democrats. Mother McCaskill has TON$ of $$ on hand and more will pour in from unions. Hollywood has already held one fund raiser for her and will hold more. Tough fight ahead.
As one who has never missed voting in a single presidential election since 1972, even I do not rigorously follow congressional elections. So I can understand that totally.
FBI is loaded with democRats in the upper echelons. If not democrats, they are old guard GOP elites favored by the mega-donor class to promote world order cheap labor express, such as Wray.
Joe remembers all the wins in past elections, and thinks he can still win. Ego is very hard to give up.
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>> “I am reading here in the Michigan/Ohio border that it is too close to call.” <<
That always means that the Republican has a significant lead.
The FBI needs to go after voter fraud. No matter what party is doing it. Period.
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Even though AZ is solidly Republican, there is always so much mischief there!
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Lesson everyone in the GOP should be learning, run away from Trump and you lose. Siding with Trump helps, not hurts, you.
Balderson is a standard issue GOPE Chamber of Commerce candida who ran away from Trump on Trade and Immigration issues. GOPE still has not learned they cannot run campaigns in the same old way.
So I'm not sure Trump is losing ground. It appears that the non Trump 2016 Tiberi voters, voted against Balderson.
If you are so scared of the RINOs you need to delete their influence. If you have 60 senators, 3-4 Rhinos have very little influence
When you have 51, ever RINO is a swing vote with disproportionate influence over what legislation gets brought up, which judges get appointed etc.
HOW about you surprise us once in a while and try fighting the Dems half as much as you do “the rhinos”
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