Presumably they've learned a thing or two since Pajama Boy's "Victory for the Ages"
Posted on 08/08/2018 6:56:21 AM PDT by LS
No matter what else you hear or read, keep this in mind: for the next three months Troy Balderson (R) will be voting in the US House, not a fruitball DemoKKKrat.
It's time we all readjust our thinking. There is too much analysis of how "red" or "blue" districts are, and, I think, a little too much expectation of a blowout because a district has a lot of Republicans.
While I don't watch the NFL anymore, this is akin to those games on the schedule where you used to say, "Oh, it's the Browns. The Dallas Cowboys should win by 30," and almost inevitably it would be a tight game. (Down memory lane: the Cowboys played the bad Buffalo Bills on MNF one night & Tony Romo threw five INTs . . . yet won the game in the last seconds---it was a great "game" and a terrible performance).
Anyway, I think this is the mindset the fake news media has been pushing us to all along: huge expectations of blowouts so they can then report on what a "disappointment" it was and how "close" it was and how the "DemoKKKrats can take satisfaction that, gee, they're really close."
Folks, our view must be to win is all that matters. By one point, by 50,000 votes, by 3 million. In November, if we have 226 seats, each won by a single vote, I'm thrilled. It does us no good to have 200 seats won in blowouts and lose 50 seats by razor-thin margins.
I think most of you would agree with that. Roy Moore left home 685,000 Republicans on election night. But we didn't need 685,000. We only needed 30,000 of them to hold a senate seat.
Now, as to the OH12 district itself: As some of you have already pointed out, the Rs got wise. They withheld a lot of Delaware (red) county's votes until all of Franklin (blue) had come in. Brilliant. This must be the strategy all over the US. (Note that this was what happened on election night 2016 in FL, MI, and PA. I don't recall how WI came in.
Second, it's obvious to anyone but the numbskull pus-bubbles on CNN that Trump literally carried Troy Balderson across the line kicking and screaming. I spoke with Richard Baris a lot yesterday, as well as with "OhioWan," my superb source in Ohio. They agreed that Balderson had seen a big (8-10 point) lead slip in the days prior to the election, and that Trump stopped the bleeding. FWIW, Baris also told me that in PA18, which we lost by 500 votes, Saccone was down six before Trump came in.
If candidates don't run arm-in-arm with Trump, EVEN IN RED DISTRICTS, they will be in trouble.
Third, and this is troubling: Ohio Wan told me that they were speaking with callers into the district who were telling the OH GOP that many of the Republicans they called in Licking, Franklin, and Delaware were not aware there was a special election taking place! (This was just prior to Trump's visit). I don't know how that's possible, but it does reinforce my position that especially on our side---but I think on both---there still is a lot of election fatigue.
The overall turnout was right at 200,000 on the low, low side of many pundits' predictions (some estimated it would be about 227,000).
Baris, @ABPatriotWriter Alex Bedhaze, and I all concur that high turnout in the Trump era HELPS Republicans, and it's important in November that the turnouts are higher.
Also, starting in the next couple of weeks, the OH GOP is sending mailers to all Republicans urging them to vote early, and to address concerns people have about voting early. The reason for this has to do with the GOP's research that shows that people voting early tend to vote more consistently the whole ticket/slate of candidates than people who vote in the booth. They find their down ticket races have much better results with a lot of early votes.
So, a good result. "Any airplane landing you walk away from is a good landing."
Now a word on AZ: I got word yesterday there is a major hitjob coming (I think in RollCall) on Kelli Ward's husband over "harassment" from a disgruntled staffer and a medical case brought years ago which resulted in a small judgment against him. I'm not going to go into details, but what the TIMING of this tells me is that the poll last week showing Kelli down about six or seven to McSally is deeply troubling to the Swamp and to McSally.
I'm certain this is a Swamp hit specifically because Ward has been strongly eating into Joe Arpaio's numbers. A few months ago, he was at 24% and even second in a poll. Now he's a distant third, at 15%, while Ward has jumped six points. Clearly she is pulling in the Joe voters who realize he can't win, and to vote for Joe is to nominate McSally. Ward's new ad "mentioning" (I would not say "attacking") Joe is very respectful and "nice," but says a senator needs to address all issues. Good ad.
Right now, AZ has about a 260,000 R advantage, but I expect that will grow by 3,000 or more in three weeks when the new registration numbers appear from the Secretary of State. We know about "red" and "blue" as I just said, but in theory, no Republican should lose an AZ senate seat. I think either Ward or McSally can beat Enema for different reasons (Ward will turn out more conservatives, McSally will turn out more indies). But what this new RollCall hit tells me is that the Swamp now is seriously concerned about Ward.
Unfortunately, Army Guy, she is for open borders, did not endorse Trump, has spoken ill about him, and is generally perceived as Ms McTurd if she gets in there.
Kelli Ward is the option, also a vet, a doctor who understands health care (which McSally doesn’t), and if she gets the nomination, you can bet Trump will endorse her too.
The real question is who is funding Joe to torpedo Ward? McSally?
That fact notwithstanding, we are being out raised and out spent by the rats in most of the key races. Rat enthusiasm is higher than the good guys, and without the cash, the headwinds just get stronger.
Hawley will beat McCaskill. I don’t think Peterson could.
Good one...will have to remember that.
Thanks, and agree.
Faux News keeps repeating the lib blather about how voters who turned out for Trump did not turn out, in this (OH) election.
They failed to mention whether or not the van loads of Somalians, who voted for 0 in 2012, turned out for O’Conner.
Larry, who can convince Arpaio to drop out?
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My only question is, does Joe know he is being used by the Cheap Labor Express to get another Amnesty Senator?
McSallycain is a Cheap Labor Express stooge and as much of a patriot as any of the Amnesty Senators who want to abandon the rule of law and give the country to fraudulently documented foreigners.
Presumably they've learned a thing or two since Pajama Boy's "Victory for the Ages"
I read in a the media that if you add in outside groups, the R's outspent the Ds.
I’m not sure even Trump can get Joe out at this point.
The good news is that Ward only needs 2/3 of his remaining votes to overtake McSally. He’s at 15% (was 24%) and Ward gained almost exactly what he lost. If she can get him to 5%, she’ll gain enough to beat McSally, who can’t beat her head to head.
That is why he is running.
Kaisch...
I don’t know. I rarely look at $.
Just too many memories of Phil Gramm and Steve Forbes not winning anything despite having far more money than any other candidate.
I donated to Joe to keep him in office because I thought he was on our side, this really ticks me off.
He has to know he’s being used to get another Amnesty Senator.
Bkmk
No argument from me, on that.
For me it was a protest vote over Hawley’s somewhat weak stance on the 2A issue. There was no doubt that he was going to crush all opposition in the primary, and is likely to send McCaskill into retirement.
If there were even any mild hint of it being close I’d have switched to Hawley, unless it was close between Pedersen and Hawley and no one else.
I don’t think any reasonable conservative loses to McCaskill at this point, unless the R nominee commits a biblical level public flub like Akin did. Basically as long as the Rs avoid nominating the dumbest of all asses in the entire state, they’re good. It would appear that they have done that.
Thanks, LS. Good analysis. We’d better get out the vote and Republicans had all better realize how critical the situation is.
A Blue Wave is coming unless we get our stuff together.
As a Show-Me stater, if Auntie Claire wins in Nov, my fellow citizens in Missouri deserves every bad thing that comes from it. McCaskill has proven time and again that she only cares about her own personal profit and adherence to the left's program.
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