800,000 people are about to flee New York and California because of taxes, say economists

MSN.COM ^ | 04/27/2018 | Robert Frank

[Responsibility2nd]

Conservative economists Arthur Laffer and Stephen Moore are predicting a new mass exodus of wealth from New York and California because of the new tax law. But academics who have studied taxes and migration call the forecast "pure nonsense."

In an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal headlined "So Long, California. Sayonara, New York," Laffer and Moore (who have both advised President Donald Trump) say the new tax bill will cause a net 800,000 people to move out of California and New York over the next three years.

The tax changes limit the deduction of state and local taxes to $10,000, so many high-earning taxpayers in high-tax states will actually face a tax increase under the new tax code.

Laffer and Moore say that the effective income-tax rate (what people actually pay) for high earners in California will jump from 8.5 percent to 13 percent. Wealthy Manhattanites would face a similar increase, they say. Those who make $10 million or more will see a potential tax hike of 50 percent or more, according to their analysis.

Those hikes, they say, will cause an exodus of residents to move to lower or no-income tax states.

"In years to come, millions of people, thousands of businesses and tens of billions of dollars of net income will flee high-tax blue states for low-tax red states," they said. They say 800,000 people will move from California and New York over the next three years. Connecticut, New Jersey and Minnesota will lose a combined 500,000 people over the same period.

[PAR35]

Did the Wharton grad factor in income taxes? Costs to register a car? Comparative home values based on square footage?

Toyota has caused a significant disruption in local housing prices, but the shortage is beginning to ease.

But tell her to stick to her numbers - sounds like the kind of folks we are better off having stay in California.

[steve86]

“Idaho’s real estate is booming because of people leaving California and Washington.”

? Washington has no state income tax to escape, but Idaho DOES have an income tax. Puget Sound, however, the liberal part of WA, does have some fairly onerous transit and vehicle taxes. They’d just be trading one tax for another.

[Cheesehead in Texas]

“Tell all liberal snowflakes exiting these Progressive paradises that Wisconsin during January is colder than Siberia.. They will hate it here. and gasp....people have evil guns....”

But beer is cheaper than water and you have the Packers. And bar stool races.

[Grampa Dave]

Save your venom for the enemy.