Posted on 03/12/2018 2:31:30 PM PDT by Vigilanteman
updated 2 hours ago
Conor Lamb will win Western Pennsylvania's special election race for Congress on Tuesday if there is a surge in Democratic turnout similar to what has been seen in other special elections over the past year, according to a Monmouth University poll out Monday.
The Monmouth poll's “Democratic surge” model shows Lamb collecting 51 percent of the vote compared with Saccone's 45 percent, while 1 percent of likely voters would opt for a third-party candidate and 3 percent remain undecided. The poll's margin of error is 5.1 percent.
Monmouth said Lamb holds a slim advantage within the margin of error, 49 percent to 47 percent, if the election has a lower turnout similar to what is normally seen in midterm elections. If turnout is higher across the board, similar to a presidential election year, Lamb would defeat Saccone, 51 percent to 44 percent.
Saccone held an advantage over Lamb in all three polling scenarios last month.
(Excerpt) Read more at triblive.com ...
economist projects saccone to win three days ago.
https://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21738400-still-consistent-idea-democratic-wave-conor-lamb-likely-lose
In other words, pure bulls***.
This poll has a 5.1 percent error, making it worthless.
This is Monmouth, famous for these sorts of polls all throughout the Republican campaign. I can’t remember them ever being right. It’s more like flipping a coin.
Well, we'll see, won't we.
He was put on notice by Trump at the rally the other day - if he is elected he will be expected to support every single thing Trump wants him to support. Or else Trump will be the one campaigning for Lamb the next time. He knows this should not even be close and if he wins it’s Trumps influence that did it.
Fake poll? The polls in past elections have been spot on or less favorable to democrats. Your post is a weekly one that ends up false every week. Our party is staying home since November 2016.
You’d get better results by flipping coins than with the liberal dingdongs at Monmouth that has anything to do with Trump.
“Monmouth Polling Director is Rabid Anti-Trump”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3481393/posts
I am predicting Lamb wins 60-39%. But the margin of error for my prediction is 42.1%.
“Monmouth had Clinton over Trump 48 - 44 on election eve. This is a suppress the vote poll.”
Glad you said that, thanks!
I watched the whole rally. Trump’s support for Saccone was anything but tepid.
..“Democratic surge” model shows...
If met by a Trump surge, it's going to be goodbye Dembot.
Which is likely still the correct margin which is why the media has to add some "secret sauce" so their voters don't give up and stay home.
Have no idea who will win but took a look at the poll at RCP.
Sample size just 374,pitifully small.
Looking at other polls at site noticed that the polls with very small samples all seen to favor lamb while the ones with larger samples sometimes two and even three times larger favor Saccone. I don’t know what that means except that I do believe that smaller polls have much greater potentials for error
Don’t know if this is the same pollster that had Moore behind in AL, but they were right on the money! By Wednesday we’ll know all the shenanigans that went down! So if you live in that district...GET your behinds down there and vote and take as many folks as you can with you!! I have that nasty same crapy gut feeling I had the eve of the election we were going to lose Alabama!
Lol, and you don’t think the Democrats were motivated in 2016?
Are you serious?
Polls schmolz. ALL of them are manipulations. They’re trying to cut down turnout
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