Some thoughts on how we might get from where we’re at now to a Second Civil War

Foriegn Policy ^ | October 10, 2017 | Thomas E. Ricks

[2ndDivisionVet]

Lt. Col. Robert F. McTague, U.S. Army (Ret.) Best Defense office of Second Civil War affairs

If we have a second Civil War, trying to understand what is happening will feel more like Ukraine in 2014 than Virginia in 1861.

Our first Civil War was primarily about slavery, but that was in the context of social and economic models in the South that were ripe for extinction. The South’s reaction was to launch a last-ditch effort to maintain and prop up its way of life at all costs, so it was visceral and violent.

Likewise, Trump’s election was an angry, defiant death throe, a angry cry against demographic and economic changes that are in fact irreversible. So, if you are a New Right strategist today — call them the Great Disruptors — the question is, how do you confront those inevitabilities?

First, you continue at the low level, with some really advanced, effective gerrymandering, as in Wisconsin. You continue to enflame working class whites, who have been ignored by the Democrats for decades. You also try to limit immigration and free trade as much as possible.

Even so, even as they do this, the New Right’s Disruptors know they can slow down changes to the nation, but they can’t stop them. So what’s the next step? You up the ante. You make it holy war. You persuade your base that there is no other way but violence. I believe many, perhaps most, of the members of Trump’s base will sign up for that.

Why? Because they will believe they are on the side of good, of right, of Americanism.

Many people in the South and heartland in general often think of themselves as patriotic, loyal Americans, more so than “liberals,” “Yankees,” “elites” and people from the North and urban areas.....

[Pelham]

It must have grieved the saints in the North terribly to be forced into a Union led by a Virginia slave owner. Washington.

Well actually it did. Which is why the Massachusetts Essex Junto began flirting with secession as early as the election of Thomas Jefferson, the man they called “the Negro President” the agent of “the Slave Power”. They got closer to leaving the Union with their 1814 Hartford Convention, when they planned to join up with England when we were at war with England. Patriots, those New Englanders.

[PaulZe]

I never said the north were saints. The issue of slavery was a contentious issue from the very beginning of the founding. The fact still remains the South seceded because of slavery. To say otherwise is to whistle past the graveyard.

[going hot]

it is not us that is going to start the shooting.

Cornered rats will, however.

[HandyDandy]

Thank you, GOPJ, for giving the supporting text to the cherry-picked extract from our own cheap-shot artist, jeffersondem. I would like to also add that Lincoln ad-libbed all of it in an unplanned preamble to his planned speech (which then followed). He was reacting to a campaign poster that had been tacked on the door to the hall where the debate was held. The poster was a crude depiction of a white man and a black woman with a child between them (as if, according to Lincoln’s opponents, that would become the model American family if Abe was elected to the Senate.) The entirety of what you posted, together with the cheap-shot artists cherry-picked smear, was Lincoln’s off the cuff responding to that campaign poster. The meat of his rebuttal to Douglas was to follow.

[GOPJ]

Read ALL of the Lincoln Douglas Debates...

[GOPJ]

I would like to also add that Lincoln ad-libbed all of it in an unplanned preamble to his planned speech (which then followed). He was reacting to a campaign poster that had been tacked on the door to the hall where the debate was held. The poster was a crude depiction of a white man and a black woman with a child between them (as if, according to Lincoln’s opponents, that would become the model American family if Abe was elected to the Senate.) The entirety of what you posted, together with the cheap-shot artists cherry-picked smear, was Lincoln’s off the cuff responding to that campaign poster. The meat of his rebuttal to Douglas was to follow.

You've just added nice texture to the story... thanks Handy...

[GOPJ]

it is not us that is going to start the shooting. Cornered rats will, however.

Then it'll be treated as a police problem and the shooters will be arrested.

[reasonisfaith]

“You persuade your base that there is no other way but violence.”

Who does he think will be doing the persuading in this scenario?

[reasonisfaith]

It must be easier than ever in the Army for low quality thinkers to achieve Lt. Colonel.

A major flaw in his analysis is to believe there are “strategists” somewhere organizing Trump supporters. And that the Trump revolution has any similarity at all with the ideas of Machiavelli.

[BroJoeK]

Jeffersondom: " He said he still does not like the 1853 Illinois 'Black Law.' "

That's only because you neglected to remind him the percentage of increase in Illinois freed black population was the highest of any US state.

Context, context.

[jeffersondem]

“I will say then that I am not, nor ever have been in favor of bringing about in any way the social and political equality of the white and black races, that I am not nor ever have been in favor of making voters or jurors of negroes, nor of qualifying them to hold office, nor to intermarry with white people; and I will say in addition to this that there is a physical difference between the white and black races which I believe will forever forbid the two races living together on terms of social and political equality. And inasmuch as they cannot so live, while they do remain together there must be the position of superior and inferior, and I as much as any other man am in favor of having the superior position assigned to the white race.”

For out of the abundance of the heart his mouth speaks.

[jeffersondem]

“That's only because you neglected to remind him (Frederick Douglas) the percentage of increase in Illinois freed black population was the highest of any US state.”

Chuckle-worthy post.

Your 26th consecutive chuckle-worthy post.

[jeffersondem]

“Read ALL of the Lincoln Douglas Debates...”

Is that necessary?

Could you just cut and paste and post the parts you think relevant on this site so everyone can read them?

If it makes it easier to understand, post in full caps.

[jeffersondem]

HandyDandy says to GOPJ: “Thank you, GOPJ, for giving the supporting text to the cherry-picked extract from our own cheap-shot artist, jeffersondem.”

GOPJ replies to HandyDandy: “You've just added nice texture to the story... thanks Handy...”

I love you both, but . . . if you will stop firing on each others tracers for a moment, you might realize you are both off-target.

[BroJoeK]

jeffersondem: "Chuckle-worthy post.
Your 26th consecutive chuckle-worthy post."

Meaning you confess to losing the point, game & set.
So, you're feeling your "love" score?

Better luck next time.

[GOPJ]

I read them years ago... it wasn't a 'modern' debate with commercials and grandstanding... covering one night. The debates happened over a period of days. If you read the Lincoln Douglas debates it's reading a book... After you read them you'll fall on your knees in gratitude that slavery in this world was essentially stopped by one man. And that man was named Lincoln.

The civil war ended slavery in the United States but Lincoln's ideas ended slavery in the world.

[GOPJ]

HandyDandy says to GOPJ: “Thank you, GOPJ, for giving the supporting text to the cherry-picked extract from our own cheap-shot artist, jeffersondem.” GOPJ replies to HandyDandy: “You've just added nice texture to the story... thanks Handy...” I love you both, but . . . if you will stop firing on each others tracers for a moment, you might realize you are both off-target.

How so?

[BroJoeK]

Pelham: " No one at time argued that the seven seceding states posed 'an existential threat' to the Union.
Which is why he doesn’t link to any source for that claim. "

Sure, on April 1, 1861 you might be correct.
But as of April 30, not so much:

1. Remember on March 6, Confederates had already called up 100,000 troops against the Union's 16,000.

2. On April 17, Virginia switched sides, voted for secession.
   Virginia was soon followed by Arkansas, North Carolina & Tennessee -- so yes, the Confederacy was "aggressive, rapidly expanding" at the Union's expense in April 1861.

3. On April 19, pro-Confederates attacked Union troops in Baltimore, killing four, wounding 36.
   So in April Confederates were aggressive and rapidly expanding into Maryland too.

4. On April 20, Confederates seized the US arsenal at Liberty, Missouri and the Norfolk Naval Yard.
   Actions of an aggressive, rapidly expanding Confederacy.

5. On April 22, pro-Confederates seized the US arsenal at Fayetteville, North Carolina.
   Actions of an aggressive, rapidly expanding Confederacy.

6. On April 23, Jefferson Davis sent military aid to the aggressive, rapidly expanding Confederate forces in Missouri.
   Aggressive, rapidly expanding Confederates also seized Federal Fort Smith, Arkansas.
   In Texas hundreds of Union troops were being held as POWs.

7. On April 26 the rapidly expanding Confederate power in Georgia ordered all debts to Northerners repudiated.

8. On April 27 the rapidly expanding Confederate power offered up Richmond Virginia as its new capital.

9. On April 29 asggressive, rapidly expanding Confederates voted war-powers to Jefferson Davis and will soon (May 6) formally declare war on the United States.

10. On May 6 the Confederacy formally declared war on the United States and on May 9 authorized 400,000 more troops, now 500,000 total.

That's why I posted:

"Even in April 1861 Lincoln well recognized the existential threat an aggressive, rapidly expanding Confederacy represented to the United States."

<

[HandyDandy]

Hey, when you mention a Freeper in a post, you are supposed to enshrine them in the “To:“ field.

Just remember that as the same fire that melts the butter also hardens the egg, so too does the same fire that melts the wax also hardens the clay.

[BroJoeK]

jeffersondem, post #88: "The same fire that melts the butter, hardens the steel. "

HandyDandy: "Just remember that as the same fire that melts the butter also hardens the egg, so too does the same fire that melts the wax also hardens the clay."

Touche.

And thanks for the reminder since, despite jeffersondem's witticism, fire itself does not harden steel.
Fire/heat softens steel, what can make it harder is the method & time used to cool it back down.