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Some thoughts on how we might get from where we’re at now to a Second Civil War
Foriegn Policy ^ | October 10, 2017 | Thomas E. Ricks

Posted on 10/11/2017 8:33:29 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Lt. Col. Robert F. McTague, U.S. Army (Ret.) Best Defense office of Second Civil War affairs

If we have a second Civil War, trying to understand what is happening will feel more like Ukraine in 2014 than Virginia in 1861.

Our first Civil War was primarily about slavery, but that was in the context of social and economic models in the South that were ripe for extinction. The South’s reaction was to launch a last-ditch effort to maintain and prop up its way of life at all costs, so it was visceral and violent.

Likewise, Trump’s election was an angry, defiant death throe, a angry cry against demographic and economic changes that are in fact irreversible. So, if you are a New Right strategist today — call them the Great Disruptors — the question is, how do you confront those inevitabilities?

First, you continue at the low level, with some really advanced, effective gerrymandering, as in Wisconsin. You continue to enflame working class whites, who have been ignored by the Democrats for decades. You also try to limit immigration and free trade as much as possible.

Even so, even as they do this, the New Right’s Disruptors know they can slow down changes to the nation, but they can’t stop them. So what’s the next step? You up the ante. You make it holy war. You persuade your base that there is no other way but violence. I believe many, perhaps most, of the members of Trump’s base will sign up for that.

Why? Because they will believe they are on the side of good, of right, of Americanism.

Many people in the South and heartland in general often think of themselves as patriotic, loyal Americans, more so than “liberals,” “Yankees,” “elites” and people from the North and urban areas.....

(Excerpt) Read more at foreignpolicy.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS: california; civilwar; cw2; cwii; demographics; shtf; trump
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To: jeffersondem

I say upon this occasion I do not perceive that because the white man is to have the superior position the negro should be denied every thing. I do not understand that because I do not want a negro woman for a slave I must necessarily want her for a wife. [Cheers and laughter.]

My understanding is that I can just let her alone.

I am now in my fiftieth year, and I certainly never have had a black woman for either a slave or a wife. So it seems to me quite possible for us to get along without making either slaves or wives of negroes. I will add to this that I have never seen, to my knowledge, a man, woman or child who was in favor of producing a perfect equality, social and political, between negroes and white men.

I recollect of but one distinguished instance that I ever heard of so frequently as to be entirely satisfied of its correctness—and that is the case of Judge Douglas’s old friend Col. Richard M. Johnson. [Laughter.] I will also add to the remarks I have made (for I am not going to enter at large upon this subject), that I have never had the least apprehension that I or my friends would marry negroes if there was no law to keep them from it, [laughter] but as Judge Douglas and his friends seem to be in great apprehension that they might, if there were no law to keep them from it, [roars of laughter] I give him the most solemn pledge that I will to the very last stand by the law of this State, which forbids the marrying of white people with negroes. [Continued laughter and applause.] I will add one further word, which is this: that I do not understand that there is any place where an alteration of the social and political relations of the negro and the white man can be made except in the State Legislature—not in the Congress of the United States—and as I do not really apprehend the approach of any such thing myself, and as Judge Douglas seems to be in constant horror that some such danger is rapidly approaching, I propose as the best means to prevent it that the Judge be kept at home and placed in the State Legislature to fight the measure. [Uproarious laughter and applause.] I do not propose dwelling longer at this time on this subject.

http://teachingamericanhistory.org/library/document/the-lincoln-douglas-debates-4th-debate-part-i/http://teachingamericanhistory.org/library/document/the-lincoln-douglas-debates-4th-debate-part-i/


181 posted on 10/15/2017 3:30:16 AM PDT by GOPJ (NFL SAYS THEIR FANS ARE RACISTS WHO MUST BE EDUCATED BY THEIR PLAYERS? So insulting.)
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To: GOPJ

“Here’s the northern version of Dixie - what song are you referring to?”

The song I referenced in my post 170 was “The Star-Spangled Banner.”

Verse three.


182 posted on 10/15/2017 6:02:30 AM PDT by jeffersondem
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To: jeffersondem

I know - I had looked it up. I was adding perspective.


183 posted on 10/15/2017 7:17:02 AM PDT by GOPJ (NFL SAYS THEIR FANS ARE RACISTS WHO MUST BE EDUCATED BY THEIR PLAYERS? So insulting.)
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To: GOPJ
Have you read the Lincoln/Douglas Debates? Take the time and do it... you'll be pleasantly surprised. This cherry picked section you've chosen has to be read within context...

Lincoln is mocking Douglas here and totally entertaining his supporters with Douglas's irrational fears that if slaves are freed that they will immediately marry white citizens. It's a debate - Lincoln makes the case that slavery's immoral - builds an elegant case against it. You need to read that... But he also takes on the fears of those who want to keep slavery... and that's what this section does. Please, read all of the debates.

184 posted on 10/15/2017 7:29:56 AM PDT by GOPJ (NFL SAYS THEIR FANS ARE RACISTS WHO MUST BE EDUCATED BY THEIR PLAYERS? So insulting.)
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To: x
McTague doesn't seem to have left much of a trail on the Internet. I would be surprised if he was Black, but I guess anything is possible.

You're right I should have left 'that guess' out...

He put the cart before the horse. He assumed a civil war was coming and then looked for a way in which it could happen, rather than start with the way things are now and see if a civil war is really likely.

I agree with you... but what's he going for here? Is this a clarion call to liberal elites that they're at risk? Or 'elites' period?

185 posted on 10/15/2017 7:42:19 AM PDT by GOPJ (NFL SAYS THEIR FANS ARE RACISTS WHO MUST BE EDUCATED BY THEIR PLAYERS? So insulting.)
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To: jeffersondem

That was vice president of the confederacy..not me


186 posted on 10/15/2017 2:05:01 PM PDT by PaulZe
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To: jeffersondem

Stop using abe lincoln quotes. Part of what Lincoln said was motivated by political expediency. The majority of the country at the time did not believe in the social equality of black and white. You are scambling and distracting from the main point that the south seceded because of slavery. No amount of your rationalizations will change that simple truth.


187 posted on 10/15/2017 2:13:44 PM PDT by PaulZe
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To: central_va; rockrr; x
central_va: "Only an idiot would think the Confederate grand strategy was to conquer the North. "

Like I said, that's just semantics because it totally depends on your definition of the word "North".
Of course Confederates intended 100% to conquer Union states like Missouri, Kentucky, West Virginia & Maryland.
Confederates also used military force to terrorize Unionist regions of Eastern Tennessee, Western North Carolina & Northern Arkansas.

Pro-Confederates on these threads also tell us that had the Confederacy controlled Union shipping on the Mississippi and New Orleans export/imports, they would have forced many mid-Western Union states to secede & join or ally with the South.

So your constant suggestions that Confederates never wanted to destroy "the North" is sheer sophistry, and begins with defining as "the North" whatever Confederates might not have wanted, for the time being!

central_va: "The reason why a mentally ill person, cognitively stupid, or evil person would deny historical reality is unknown to me."

Believe me, I don't think you're "mentally ill", "cognitively stupid" or "evil person", so you don't need to self-flagellate over it, but why you continually deny historical reality is truly unknown to me.

central_va: "If the North had moved it's capitol from DC to NYC in 1861 and its Army had stayed above the Potomac there would have been no battles in the Civil War.
It wouldn't even had been a war."

Of course, if there was no war, there'd be no need to move the US capital from Washington, DC to NYC would there?
So how about if you allow us to leave it there?

As for staying "above the Potomac", did you forget the Confederacy had already declared war against the United States on May 6, 1861?
And that was long before any Union force crossed the Potomac or killed a single Confederate soldier in battle.
So what would you suggest the Union should do about the Confederate Declaration of War, immediately sue for peace?
What should the Union do about Confederate troops in Missouri, Kentucky, West Virginia, Oklahoma, & New Mexico?
Ignore them?
Pretend they're not there?

Really?

188 posted on 10/15/2017 2:39:20 PM PDT by BroJoeK (a little historical perspective...)
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To: PaulZe
“The united states of america was not founded on the idea of white supremacy.”

In 1853, the Illinois General Assembly adopted the draconian “Black Law”. For the most part, the law simply brought together in one place several existing laws. Under this law, no black from another state could remain within the Illinois borders for more than ten days. Beyond ten days and he or she was subject to arrest, confinement in jail, and a $50 fine and removal from the state. If unable to pay the fine, the law directed the sheriff to auction the offending African-American to the bidder willing to pay the costs and the fine and to work the “guilty” party the fewest number of days. If the convicted man or woman did not leave within ten days after completing the required service, the process resumed, but the fine was increased $50 for each additional infraction.

About this law, abolitionist Frederick Douglas said: “What kind of people are the people of Illinois? Were they born and nursed of women as other people are? Or are they the offspring of wolves and tigers, and only taught to prey upon all flesh pleasing to their bloody taste? If they are members of the human family, by what spirit are they animated? Is it from heaven or is it from hell?”

It seems Mr. Douglas was quite certain that white people in the Land of Lincoln had an animus against black people.

Are you now absolutely certain - I mean absolutely certain - you were correct in your earlier assertion that only the CSA was founded on white supremacy?

189 posted on 10/15/2017 3:01:14 PM PDT by jeffersondem
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To: PaulZe
“Stop using abe lincoln quotes.”

Why?

190 posted on 10/15/2017 3:03:38 PM PDT by jeffersondem
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To: PaulZe

“Part of what Lincoln said was motivated by political expediency.”

Agreed.

In any other context a politician that speaks out of both sides of this mouth would be known as an insincere charlatan.

The South didn’t trust Lincoln. For good reasons it turned out.


191 posted on 10/15/2017 3:10:21 PM PDT by jeffersondem
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To: central_va; x; rockrr
central_va quoting link: "The Confederate States of America recognized from the outset of the Civil War that they had disadvantages in terms of population and industrial output.
Their strategy was to take advantage of their compact geography, with internal lines of communication, their military heritage... etc. "

Right, I "get" all that, however what you ignore is that Confederates' best military minds (i.e., Davis & Lee) believed the very best defense was a great offense.
Offense opens up opportunities you can't even predict so, instead of defending on your own side of a river, ideally, you fight on the enemy's side, with the river to your back.
That way, if you win the battle -- and with a river to their back, your troops are even more highly motivated -- you immediately move forward to exploit your defeated enemy's weaknesses.
Confederates knew all that, it's why Lee & others invaded Maryland, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma & New Mexico.
Davis also made plans to invade Illinois, fortunately never carried out.

Could anything stop the Confederate rampage?
Sure, a preemptive Union surrender, granting Confederates everything they wanted, and then some -- all the slave states, all the Southwest territories, at least half of California, and what else?
Oh, yeh, Washington DC of course.
Why would the Union even need that?

192 posted on 10/15/2017 3:11:17 PM PDT by BroJoeK (a little historical perspective...)
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To: PaulZe; jeffersondem
"You do know the south New England almost seceded in 1850 1814, the Hartford Convention...

"Timothy Pickering of Massachusetts and a few Federalists envisioned creating a separate New England confederation, possibly combining with lower Canada to form a new pro-British nation."

"Federalist party members convened the Hartford Convention on December 15, 1814; they addressed their opposition to the continuing war with England and the domination of the federal government by the 'Virginia dynasty'. Twenty six delegates attended—Massachusetts sent 12, Connecticut seven, and Rhode Island four; New Hampshire and Vermont declined but two counties each from those states sent delegates."

193 posted on 10/15/2017 3:40:36 PM PDT by Pelham (Liberate California. Deport Mexico Now)
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To: jagusafr

Most conservatives are too busy working and parenting to get involved in silly political activisms. Think about what would have to happen to mobilize that cohort.


194 posted on 10/15/2017 3:44:27 PM PDT by Vermont Lt (Burn. It. Down.)
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To: jeffersondem; PaulZe
jeffersondem: "In 1853, the Illinois General Assembly adopted the draconian “Black Law”...."

jeffersondem has seen some of the following numbers before, but naturally ignores them.
According to US census, after Illinois became a state in 1818, its populations of slaves & freed blacks were as follows:

  1. 1820 -- slaves = 917
    1820 -- freed-blacks = 457

  2. 1830 -- slaves = 747 = 19% decrease
    1830 -- freed-blacks = 1,637 = 358% increase

  3. 1840 -- slaves = 331 = 56% decrease
    1840 -- freed-blacks = 3,598 =219% increase

  4. 1850 -- slaves = 0 = 100% decrease
    1850 -- freed-blacks = 5,436 = 51% increase

  5. 1860 -- slaves = 0 = still zero
    1860 -- freed-blacks = 7,628 = 40% increase
In fact, the 1853 Illinois law which jeffersondem here notes was not the first of its kind, but none of those laws prevented a 100% reduction in Illinois' slaves and a 16 times increase in the numbers of freed blacks.
195 posted on 10/15/2017 3:50:27 PM PDT by BroJoeK (a little historical perspective...)
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To: PaulZe

“That was vice president of the confederacy..not me”

That was your reply to my post 165 but it was not responsive to the only question I asked in that post: “Was the USA founded on the principle that the black man was not equal to the white?”


196 posted on 10/15/2017 3:57:20 PM PDT by jeffersondem
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To: jeffersondem; BroJoeK

“Even in April 1861 Lincoln well recognized the existential threat an aggressive, rapidly expanding Confederacy represented to the United States.”

That’s just BJK’s favorite bit of nonsense. No one at time argued that the seven seceding states posed “an existential threat” to the Union. Which is why he doesn’t link to any source for that claim. The North had double the population, a vastly larger industrial base, they were a maritime power. Until Lincoln ordered 75,000 troops to “suppress the rebellion”, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee and Arkansas remained in the Union.


197 posted on 10/15/2017 4:08:14 PM PDT by Pelham (Liberate California. Deport Mexico Now)
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To: Pelham
“That’s just BJK’s favorite bit of nonsense.”

I like to read out loud the phrase “rapidly expanding Confederacy.” Kind-of makes the pulse race.

Think I'll clean the muzzleloader tonight.

198 posted on 10/15/2017 4:17:30 PM PDT by jeffersondem
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To: BroJoeK
“jeffersondem has seen some of the following numbers before, but naturally ignores them.”

Not true.

I showed these numbers to Frederick Douglas just the other day.

He said he still does not like the 1853 Illinois “Black Law.”

199 posted on 10/15/2017 4:36:19 PM PDT by jeffersondem
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To: jeffersondem

Polish up the Napolean 12 Pounder...


200 posted on 10/15/2017 5:03:48 PM PDT by Pelham (Liberate California. Deport Mexico Now)
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