Hurricane Irma Live Thread Part II

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[NautiNurse]

Dangerous Category 5 Hurricane Irma had a devastating impact on islands in the Caribbean.

Hurricane and Storm surge watches were issued Thursday morning for South Florida. The Florida Keys began evacuating visitors and residents, followed by flood zones in Miami and Miami Beach. Sarasota FL declared a local state of emergency Thursday morning.

Polk County FL Sheriff Grady Judd said Wednesday that law enforcement authorities would check the identities of people who turn up at shelters--and take to jail anyone found to have an active arrest warrant. “If you go to a shelter for Irma and you have a warrant, we’ll gladly escort you to the safe and secure shelter called the Polk County Jail... “If you have a warrant, turn yourself in to the jail — it’s a secure shelter.” Judd also posted that sex offenders and sex predators would not be admitted to the shelters. "We cannot and we will not have innocent children in a shelter with sexual offenders & predators. Period." Judd's statements unleashed a liberal firestorm via Twitter.

Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links

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NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Melbourne, FL
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NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Charleston, SC
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NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Morehead City, FL
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Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Buoy Data NC/SC/GA

Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki

Hurricane Irma Live Thread I

[SomeCallMeTim]

Thanks... that’s an excellent graphic. To me, it confirms that a turn is coming, but... it’s still going to be awhile. Like. maybe another 24 hours.

If that’s the case, Irma will keep moving largely west for a bit longer, and Cuba is going to do some real damage to her. When she does get back over water, the upper level wind shear is going to be strong. I suspect re-development will be much less than what is being projected.

There’s a forecast I predict you will NOT Hear on TV today.

[blam]

Everyone, my sister BOUNCED out of Tampa this morning. She is 34 miles from Orlando presently where she and the kids will stay with a friend there who has a 'big strong house.'

She changed her mind about staying in Tampa after considering her proximity to the bay and that Irma is back to cat-5.

Thanks for the advice.

[TheStickman]

Getting hammered by a nor’ easter here in Jacksonville. This front has nothing to do with Irma according to local weather folks.

[Baldwin77]

Thankfully, we have a home in TN where we spend our summers. We are safe and sound, but would have been under a mandatory evac in FL. My daughter had to leave and is in Bristol, FL, with her husband’s family. Safe for the moment.

[fatima]

She will feel better that she left.:)

[Dustoff45]

Watch the eye of IRMA hug the coast of Cuba headed west.

[KC Burke]

Good. I misunderstood.

[Qiviut]

Just saw this link on FB:

Irma information: Polk County
http://www.fox13news.com/weather/tropics/irma-local-coverage/irma-information-polk-county

Updated: Sep 09 2017 09:45AM EDT

From Link:

EVACUATIONS:

Polk County issued mandatory evacuations on SATURDAY MORNING (emphasis mine). The evacuation is for residents living in manufactured homes or mobile homes and in flood-prone areas. Those areas include:

- Itchepackesassa Creek, bordered by Deeson Road, the County Line, Ariana Street and Chestnut Street
- Gator Creek, in extreme northwest Polk bordered by the County Line on the north and west, Marcum Road on the south and Highway 33 on the east
- Lake Lowery’s northwest side of the lake
- Saddlebag Lake
- River Ranch

SHELTERS:

The following public shelters will be open on Saturday, Sept. 9 at 7 a.m.:

Auburndale High School, 1 Bloodhound Trail, Auburndale
Bartow High School, 1270 S. Broadway, Bartow
Chain of Lakes Elementary, 7001 CR 653, Winter Haven
Davenport School of the Arts, 4751 N CR 547, Davenport
Donald Bronson Community Center, 124 Bronson Trail, Polk City
George Jenkins High School, 6000 Lakeland Highlands, Lakeland
Haines City High School, 2800 Hornet Drive, Haines City
Horizons Elementary, 1700 Forest Lake Drive, Davenport
Kathleen High School: 1100 Red Devil Way in Lakeland
Lake Marion Creek Elem., 3055 Lk. Marion Creek Rd., Poinciana
Lake Region High School, 1995 Thunder Road, Eagle Lake (pet friendly)
Mulberry Middle School, 500 Martin Luther King Ave., Mulberry
Phillip O’Brien Elementary, 1255 E. Lime Street, Lakeland (pet friendly)
R. Bruce Wagner Elementary, 5500 Yates Road, Lakeland
Sleepy Hill Elementary, 2285 Sleepy Hill Drive, Lakeland
Spook Hill Elementary, 321 Dr. J.A. Wiltshire Ave., E., Lake Wales
Tenoroc High School, 4905 Saddle Creek Rd., Lakeland

“Special Needs” Shelters will also open at 7 a.m. on Saturday, Sept. 9, for those residents with special medical needs:

Polk Co. Health Department, 1255 Brice Blvd., Bartow
Ridge Community H. S., 500 W. Orchid Dr., Davenport
McKeel Academy, 1810 W. Parker St., Lakeland

[Paul R.]

A couple days ago, on Thursday, 5 a.m., NHC was saying:

The hurricane is currently being steered by the subtropical ridge to the north, and for the next 48 h or so this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in the forward speed. After 48 h, a mid- to upper-level trough digging into the eastern United States is expected to create a break in the ridge and allow Irma to turn northward. The timing of the turn is the most important question and one still filled with uncertainty.

The next several hours should tell...

[enumerated]

“The Euro track is the heavy black line on Sept. 4th. They have not been right all along.:”

I keep waiting for some convincing science for why everyone predicts this right turn up through Florida. Low pressure up in the NE?

My guess is they have no idea, but they’d much rather have predicted the worst case scenario for Florida, and be wrong.

If they predict a continues westward path, and it does hit Fla head on, nobody evacuates and they have major egg on their faces.

If they predict it hits Fla, but it continues westward, they are wrong “on the safe side”, because they still have a couple days to get the new potential targets prepared and motivated for evacuation.

I don’t really blame them if they are playing these kind of crowd control psych ops. Getting people to think worst case scenario is probably not a bad idea.

But I don’t think they have a clue where it’s going.

[blam]

"I’m glad to hear that. IIRC, that’s between 7,000 to 8,000 personnel. But if millions are going to be without power for long, I’m wondering if FL will need a lot more than that, Indiana’s for starters."

I was already thinking about Trump 'nationalizing' National Guard troops from other states and sending them into Florida if the scale of damage and need warrant it.(I think he can do that)

[KC Burke]

I think the DOD has some people very busy. Right on the path, in sequence, McDill Central Command, Fort Benning, Fort Campbell. With Redstone Arsenal going to get wet.

[SomeCallMeTim]

I am west of the cone and I will still be keeping an eye on it regardless of what the “experts” say.

Good idea... If I lived in Destin, I'd be puckered a little right now. I DO expect a LATE turn. Which means, Destin landfall is still in play. IF, it goes that far west, there'll be a lot more time to re-intensify.

That said, when/if the "turn" comes, I think it will be fairly sharp. So, yea.... Tampa area is probably still the most likely.

Bottom line is: NO ONE really knows. Which, is the big problem I have with telling millions to evacuate. To where? What place is "safe"? NO WAY I'm staying ANYWHERE NEAR a storm surge area. Outside of that? I'm only going as far as needed to find a sturdy structure. For MANY people, that's the home they're in.

[Paul R.]

Does anyone have firm info. on how many people did not evac from the Keys? Rumors say quite a few.

[longtermmemmory]

what is with all the useless NYC reporters rushing down to south beach? With CNN looking to save money, putting their useless news crews down to Miami seems like somebody wants a free trip.

[xzins]

If it makes it as far as Havana that will be tragic. On TV the buildings there look old and held together with spit and baling wire.

[Miss Didi]

Many thanks for this thread and for all you do, NN...family on both Florida coasts so all of your reports are much appreciated. Be safe, Florida FRiends! ❤️

[metmom]

I have a friend whose got relatives stuck on Longboat Key.

Can’t get out cause of the bad traffic and no gas.

[WorkerbeeCitizen]

still ain’t turned

[SomeCallMeTim]

I keep waiting for some convincing science for why everyone predicts this right turn up through Florida.

Look at post 2063 A high pressure ridge is building in front of Irma. She may crash into it, but she WON'T go through it. Eventually, she'll ride up the edge of it.

Still looks to me like they have to get a little close though... so, more west... for a bit more.