Hurricane Irma Live Thread Part II

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[NautiNurse]

Dangerous Category 5 Hurricane Irma had a devastating impact on islands in the Caribbean.

Hurricane and Storm surge watches were issued Thursday morning for South Florida. The Florida Keys began evacuating visitors and residents, followed by flood zones in Miami and Miami Beach. Sarasota FL declared a local state of emergency Thursday morning.

Polk County FL Sheriff Grady Judd said Wednesday that law enforcement authorities would check the identities of people who turn up at shelters--and take to jail anyone found to have an active arrest warrant. “If you go to a shelter for Irma and you have a warrant, we’ll gladly escort you to the safe and secure shelter called the Polk County Jail... “If you have a warrant, turn yourself in to the jail — it’s a secure shelter.” Judd also posted that sex offenders and sex predators would not be admitted to the shelters. "We cannot and we will not have innocent children in a shelter with sexual offenders & predators. Period." Judd's statements unleashed a liberal firestorm via Twitter.

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Hurricane Irma Live Thread I

[alancarp]

The slower a storm is moving, the more there's a chance for other influences in the weather to re-steer it. Katina was going 7mph in your chart above. Irma has been going 12-14.

Add to that: None of the major models show anything like that. The Euro and the UKMet especially have been on target all along.

So is there a 0% chance that Irma does something weird? No, but those odds are probably no more than 1-2%.

So y'all stop cherry-picking rogue storms to confuse people.

[maggief]

[Dustoff45]

Irma's going that way,

Doing refresh on the predicted paths, and the path just jumped 20-25 miles to the west.

It really looks like Irma is determined to pay a visit to Havana!

[maggief]

Key West radar:

https://weather.com/weather/radar/interactive/l/USFL0244:1:US

[Baldwin77]

I was replying to this:

Oh no

All those retirees

And Sanibel/Captiva

Oh no

1,874 posted on 9/9/2017, 2:08:32 AM by combat_boots

[exit82]

Not the same guy who did the Mandela funeral, I hope! ;)

[dfwgator]

I hope it levels the Che Guevara Museum in Santa Clara.

[alancarp]

Euro model shows re-intensification prior to landfall near Port Charlotte Sun PM. (H/T Joe Bastardi tweet)

[combat_boots]

I was being serious, though. My mother and father were snowbirds down that way.

[xzins]

Irma is still tracking west with no northerly turn as of an hour ago

[alancarp]

@RyanMaue: "Eastern Gulf of Mexico ocean temperatures (SST) are bath water just like Straits of Florida. Some vertical shear won't overcome this fuel."

[dfwgator]

Looking more and more that Miami and Fort Lauderdale will be spared. We should know by this afternoon.

[Baldwin77]

The Euro track is the heavy black line on Sept. 4th. They have not been right all along.:

[fatima]

New video: another intense squall well ahead of Hurricane #Irma over the Florida Keys @breakingweather pic.twitter.com/A292jZ3Yjv— Reed Timmer (@ReedTimmerAccu) September 9, 2017

[Baldwin77]

Sorry, misunderstanding. My home is on the water in St. Pete,- I’m edgy !!!

[KC Burke]

Are you evacuated?

If you are “on the water” you are probably in a surge zone.

[boycott]

I agree that it is unlikely to go very far off the projected path. But I will tell you that there is a hell of a lot of difference if it goes into Miami or Tampa. Weren’t they saying Miami yesterday morning? There’s also a lot of difference if you live in Destin and it goes in there instead of Naples. So my point stands.

I am not “cherry-picking rogue storms to confuse people.” What I stated is truth. You could pick most hurricanes over the last 30 years and you would find that I am correct. My evacuation plans for both Katrina and Ivan were based on the experts. I wish I had done the opposite in both cases.

Lighten up. I don’t get off in confusing people. It’s just a discussion board. I am west of the cone and I will still be keeping an eye on it regardless of what the “experts” say.

[NonValueAdded]

The EGR2 model track has Irma going to visit the Liebrary. Will they have to evacuate the double-wide?

[combat_boots]

OH!

S’OK.

I work with people who live in FL. They’re battening down the hatches, too, talking about it just yesterday. One guy did say it would be a good day to drop by Disney World, however.

Apparently, there is a guy on Facebook, Denis Phillips, who isn’t fearmongering badly the way the national people are.

Many’s the fond memory I have of going to FL. My first trip with my folks went to Sarasota. Loved it.

[nfldgirl]

Darn if I can make heads or tails of that. Glad somebody can!