[alancarp]

The slower a storm is moving, the more there's a chance for other influences in the weather to re-steer it. Katina was going 7mph in your chart above. Irma has been going 12-14.

Add to that: None of the major models show anything like that. The Euro and the UKMet especially have been on target all along.

So is there a 0% chance that Irma does something weird? No, but those odds are probably no more than 1-2%.

So y'all stop cherry-picking rogue storms to confuse people.

[maggief]

[alancarp]

Euro model shows re-intensification prior to landfall near Port Charlotte Sun PM. (H/T Joe Bastardi tweet)

[Baldwin77]

The Euro track is the heavy black line on Sept. 4th. They have not been right all along.:

[boycott]

I agree that it is unlikely to go very far off the projected path. But I will tell you that there is a hell of a lot of difference if it goes into Miami or Tampa. Weren’t they saying Miami yesterday morning? There’s also a lot of difference if you live in Destin and it goes in there instead of Naples. So my point stands.

I am not “cherry-picking rogue storms to confuse people.” What I stated is truth. You could pick most hurricanes over the last 30 years and you would find that I am correct. My evacuation plans for both Katrina and Ivan were based on the experts. I wish I had done the opposite in both cases.

Lighten up. I don’t get off in confusing people. It’s just a discussion board. I am west of the cone and I will still be keeping an eye on it regardless of what the “experts” say.

[Paul R.]

Does anyone have firm info. on how many people did not evac from the Keys? Rumors say quite a few.