My point is that survey data, subject to non-response bias, is no way to draw strong conclusions like The Hill tried to do.
Posted on 05/14/2017 5:58:37 AM PDT by SMGFan
New data released Wednesday by the Census Bureau shows an estimated 61.4 percent of Americans over the age of 18 cast ballots, down from the 61.8 percent who voted in 2012 and well below the 63.8 percent who voted in 2004, the recent high-point of voter participation.
White voters were most likely to turn out; 65.3 percent of whites told Census Bureau surveyors they voted in 2016, more than a full percentage point higher than their participation rate in 2012.
But voter turnout among black voters fell almost seven percentage points, to 59.4 percent, the Census figures show — after hitting an all-time high of 66.2 percent in 2012.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
Neither.
For the first time in their adult lives they were proud to vote for a BHO. Too busy to vote for HRC. /s
Try to get them to vote next year Nov 2018! Reasons Dems want to fine you for not voting.
>>voter turnout among black voters fell almost seven percentage points
Many just weren’t motivated by Hillary to vote more than once.
I’m not going to say a word.
LOL, its because Hillary wasn’t Irish like BHO.
If they stayed home during every election, this country would be better off.
This is self reported data and thus unreliable. And that’s before you factor in the MOE. Anyone who stayed awake in a basic statistics class (a group which includes zero urinalists and a tiny percentage of FReepers) understands this. Regardless, all sorts of “analysis” will follow.
First, if you dig through the details, the Census Bureau admits their data "have historically differed from...official results reported by each state and disseminated...(by) the Federal Election Commission... Potential explanations for this difference include item nonresponse, vote misreporting, problems with memory or knowledge of others’ voting behavior, and methodological issues related to question wording and survey administration. "
In other words, these results don't synchronize with other surveys and are subject to people just making up results.
Relatedly, who answers these surveys? Most people I know don't tell strangers their personal business. Indeed, it is arguable that blacks may have been MORE inclined to opt out of answering this past cycle: couple the media's Trump demonization with the collective 2 Minute Hate demonstrated during the election (and especially thereafter), no rational human being - regardless of race - would volunteer info about what you did on Election Day.
This story and data seemed designed to make it seem like blacks didn't like Trump, when most anecdotal evidence was to the contrary. Sorry, not buying it.
Hillary should have done more ‘no waze tard’ speeches, but she took for granted she had those votes in the bag. Instead, she took time off from the campaign after nearly every brief campaign appearance.
She thought she had the Rust Belt in the bag too. And the South, since BJ was such a popular southern governor.
She wanted the presidency, but she just did not have the energy to campaign. For every one of her campaign appearances PER WEEK, candidate Trump was doing 3 to 6 PER DAY.
The next generation of Blacks will be even less inclined to vote for a White Democrat candidate. They won’t even allow a White speaker at their commencements.
Do you believe blacks supported HRC less than BHO but there is no solid evidence? Did enough stay home that she lost certain states she was expected to win?
JAMES ANDERSON, OF TALLADEGA, AL, SUBMITTED A LETTER TO THE EDITOR IN THE SCOTTSBORO DAILY SENTINEL THAT FEATURED THE 12 REASONS WHY HE VOTES FOR DEMOCRATS EVERY ELECTION CYCLE. HIS REASONS ARE A RIOT, AND SINCE THEIR APPEARANCE IN NOVEMBER OF 2012, THEY HAVE GONE VIRAL, SPREADING LAUGHS ACROSS THE COUNTRY. SINCE WE ARE IN AN ELECTION YEAR, IT MIGHT BE APPROPRIATE TO REVISIT THE ARTICLE.
1. I VOTED DEMOCRATIC BECAUSE I LOVE THE FACT THAT I CAN NOW MARRY WHATEVER I WANT. I NOW MAY MARRY MY LABRADOR.
2. I VOTED DEMOCRATIC BECAUSE I BELIEVE OIL COMPANIES’ PROFITS OF 4% ON A GALLON OF GAS ARE OBSCENE BUT THE GOVERNMENT TAXING THE SAME GALLON OF GAS AT 15% ISN’T.
3. I VOTED DEMOCRATIC BECAUSE I BELIEVE THE GOVERNMENT WILL DO A BETTER JOB OF SPENDING THE MONEY I EARN THAN I WOULD.
4. I VOTED DEMOCRATIC BECAUSE FREEDOM OF SPEECH IS FINE AS LONG AS I AGREE WITH WHAT IS SAID AND NOBODY ELSE IS OFFENDED BY IT.
5. I VOTED DEMOCRATIC BECAUSE I’M WAY TOO IRRESPONSIBLE TO OWN A GUN AND I KNOW THAT MY LOCAL POLICE ARE ALL I NEED TO PROTECT ME FROM MURDERERS AND THIEVES.
6. I VOTED DEMOCRATIC BECAUSE I BELIEVE THAT PEOPLE WHO CAN’T TELL US IF IT WILL RAIN ON FRIDAY CAN TELL US THAT THE POLAR ICE CAPS WILL MELT AWAY IN 10 YEARS IF I DON’T START DRIVING A PRIUS.
7. I VOTED DEMOCRATIC BECAUSE I’M NOT CONCERNED ABOUT MILLIONS OF BABIES BEING ABORTED SO LONG AS WE KEEP ALL DEATH ROW INMATES ALIVE.
8. I VOTED DEMOCRATIC BECAUSE I THINK ILLEGAL ALIENS HAVE A RIGHT TO FREE HEALTH CARE, EDUCATION, AND SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS, AND WE SHOULD TAKE AWAY THE SOCIAL SECURITY FROM THOSE WHO PAID INTO IT.
9. I VOTED DEMOCRATIC BECAUSE I BELIEVE THAT BUSINESSES SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO MAKE PROFITS FOR THEMSELVES. THEY NEED TO BREAK EVEN AND GIVE THE REST AWAY TO THE GOVERNMENT FOR REDISTRIBUTION AS THE DEMOCRATS SEE FIT.
10. I VOTED DEMOCRATIC BECAUSE I BELIEVE LIBERAL JUDGES NEED TO REWRITE THE CONSTITUTION EVERY FEW DAYS TO SUIT SOME FRINGE KOOKS WHO WOULD NEVER GET THEIR AGENDAS PAST THE VOTERS.
11. I VOTED DEMOCRATIC BECAUSE I THINK THAT IT’S BETTER TO PAY BILLIONS FOR THEIR OIL TO PEOPLE WHO HATE US BUT NOT DRILL OUR OWN BECAUSE IT MIGHT UPSET SOME ENDANGERED BEETLE, SPOTTED OWL, GOPHER OR FISH.
12. I VOTED DEMOCRATIC BECAUSE MY HEAD IS SO FIRMLY MISPLACED TOWARD THE SOUTH END OF MY BODY; IT’S UNLIKELY THAT I’LL EVER HAVE ANOTHER POINT OF VIEW.
NO TREES, SPOTTED OWLS, OR RED COCK-HEADED WOODPECKERS WERE HARMED IN THE SENDING OF THIS MESSAGE.
—JAMES W. ANDERSON
TALLADEGA, AL
I don’t understand how these percentages equate to the actual numbers.
Try as I might, I can’t seem to reconcile them.
Almost 8 million more voted in 2016 than 2012
137,100,229 voted in 2016
129,237,642 voted in 2012
131,473,705 voted in 2008
122,303,590 voted in 2004
105,425,985 voted in 2001.
My point is that survey data, subject to non-response bias, is no way to draw strong conclusions like The Hill tried to do.
Hmm....so the voting age population increased 9% in 8 years from 2004 to 2012 (believable), but 7% in 4 years from 2012 to 2016 (not believable)?
137/0.614 = 223+ million
129/0.618 = 209+ million
122/0.638 = 191+ million
That is interesting. Your analysis seems to prove what I’m looking at.
The anomaly may be because the 2016 stats in this article are based on Census Bureau surveys and the Census Bureau indicates approximation, which generally is an extrapolation of a small subset.
I wasn’t surveyed ? Where you ?
The stats I use come from the who I think is best election raw number statistician around.
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
Why the Census Bureau is involved in anything other than a decadal enumeration is beyond me.
They were very alarmed by the corruption found in podesta’s email.
Hillary’s fault
Thinking she had the election in her pocket, Hillary didn’t pay black preachers the walking around money to which they are accustomed for reciting the party line from their pulpits.
In Illinois I knocked on every door, registered, non-registered, citizen, non-citizen including illegals. Consistently, Blacks and Hispanics felt that the Republican party did not want them. Some of them bought the Democrat promises and voted Democrat for that reason. Some of them voted Democrat because they felt that the Democrats wanted them. Those two groups gave the Democrats the majority.
Blacks, and even more so Hispanics, who did not buy the Democrat propaganda felt they had no where to go. The Republicans didn’t want them.
Now in Georgia I hear the same thing in the Blacks and Hispanics as I am mostly in those communities; although I have not knocked on tens of thousands of doors in GA as I did in IL.
When I made Hispanics feel wanted, I got 100% of their vote. When the RINO candidate for governor wanted capital punishment for an innocent Hispanic, just to prove he was not a RINO but a real Republican, I couldn’t even get my Hispanic wife or daughters to vote for him (nor myself either).
When I (partially) made Blacks wanted by Republicans, I got about 30% of their vote. When I left that area and the Black Pastor’s wife took over the ground game, she got close to 100% of both the Hispanic and Black vote. She increased my 65% of the total vote to 87% of the total vote for the most conservative slate of candidates. We know we did not get the vote of the angry white Hillaries. They were the heart of the 13%.
What a strange picture that is. Why are so many people wearing white clothes?
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