Posted on 04/12/2017 6:38:55 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
The Trump administration is off to a rocky start, as every week seems to bring new turmoil and drama. However, it is important to remember how shockingly unlikely this presidency was in the first place.
Since Trump went from nearly zero chance of becoming Leader of the Free World to launching missiles at our enemies, one is left to ask: what trends led to this fate for Democrats?
Ryne Rohla at Decision Desk HQ set out to model American voting patterns, not just on a national or state level, but by burrowing down to the most localized, nuanced metric available: local precincts. Because of the incredible locality and difficulty of attaining such data, few have ever attempted to map the voting populace in this way. Rohla persisted. He explains in his piece entitled, “Creating a National Precinct Map”:
Election results show so much more than simply who won and lost a constitutionally-legitimized popularity contest. Election results lay bare the souls of its voters, translating millions of individual hopes, dreams, fears, aspirations, and biases into tangible, observable quantities. No census or survey can truly capture that singular moment of personal truth which occurs in the ballot box. We can identify your race, your income, a list of a thousand other measurable values which statistically imply the outcome of this moment, but as deterministic as we might try to make it seem, it always comes down to a final act of free will. These individual acts sum to make manifest the inner milieu of a people at a particular moment in time, a secular sacrament ordaining to our political priesthood.
In other words, Rohla knows that voting trends reflect the true spirit of a people, at least for a window in time. This data is important and measuring it accurately is essential. However, even in our digital-first society, nailing down the accurate voting habits of a rural district is difficult.
Precinct data, despite providing the clearest available picture of how areas vote, can be quite difficult to both come by and to visualize. There isnt a singular, unified source of precinct-level data nationally nor even at the statewide level in many cases. Precinct boundaries frequently shift over time, especially during the decennial redistricting process following each Census.
After spending most of my spare time in 2015 working on a global religion map, the 2016 Presidential Primaries rolled around, and I decided to go for it: I would do everything in my power to create a national precinct map. I didnt have a team of researchers. I didnt have aides. I didnt have much extra money. I didnt have connections. But for some reason, I thought I could do it anyway.
Hundreds of emails and phone calls and months of work later, heres what I came up with:
Want to see what that looks like year over year?
Credit: Ryne Rohla/Decision Desk HQ/Independent Journal Review
Look at the differences in Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania:
The huge change in the maps can be underwrote from an economic perspective, as well. As IJR recently reported:
According to economic expert Stephen Moore, writing in the Washington Times, the reasons Americans are fleeing these states are all driven by economics namely, that they share the progressive values of high taxes rates; high welfare benefits; heavy regulation; environmental extremism; high minimum wages.
Here is an amazing statistic. Of the 10 blue states that Hillary Clinton won by the largest percentage margins California, Massachusetts, Vermont, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Illinois, Rhode Island, New Jersey, and Connecticut every single one of them lost domestic migration (excluding immigration) over the last 10 years (2004-14). Nearly 2.75 million more Americans left California and New York than entered these states.
Also, the Democratic Party has lost seats from coast to coast on every level. According to Fox News, the last eight years have proved disastrous for the Democratic Party, handing them over 1,000 losses nationally:
The Democratic Party suffered huge losses at every level during Obamas West Wing tenure. The grand total: a net loss of 1,042 state and federal Democratic posts, including congressional and state legislative seats, governorships and the presidency.
The latter was perhaps the most profound example of Obama's popularity failing to translate to support for his allies. Hillary Clinton, who served as secretary of state under Obama, brought the first family out for numerous campaign appearances. In September, Obama declared that his legacys on the ballot.
Less than two months later, Americans voted for Donald Trump.
From every angle, the Democratic Party looks like they're in an uphill climb, even all the way down to the local precinct level.
Excellent. Me likey berry, berry much.
Well done!
A great resource to remind We The People why we have the EC!!
The Trump presidency off to a rocky start Benny? He’s done more to help this nation in a little under three months than both W and The One did in sixteen years! The president has accomplished things despite the daily barrage of “rocks” thrown at him by the media and the political elites!
Now you know the reason behind the Open Boarders Policy...................(sic PUN intentional)
I think it's important not to overestimate the support for Donald Trump and other GOP candidates across the country. Despite the huge sea of red you see in the 2016 precinct-level map, there's no getting around the fact that Hillary Clinton got more votes than Donald Trump.
This country is getting more urbanized over time, which means the expectations of future voters are more likely to align with Democrats than Republicans. This is why many Democrats today are outright Marxists, and many Republicans today would have been considered liberal even by Democrat standards 50 years ago.
I’m a pretty normal guy. I’m not a kook. Still, I knew within the first couple weeks of when he announced his candidacy that I was going to be for him, and as time went on, I knew he would win.
A lot of us here felt the same way as me.
We watched week after week after week the pundits making fun of him like Charles Krauthammer, George Will, Steve Hayes, and oh yes, don’t forget that Dana Perino on The Five.
Very few felt like we did here.
WE all together listened to the debates and watched the rallies.
Many of us lost friendships with old friends and family members, but we were steadfast in our belief about Trump and what he could do.
I feel the same way. I wake up every morning, joyful, humble, happy, prayful at optimistic about our country for the first time in a long long time.
And why Democrats are so anxious to get rid of it.
Despite all the negatives.....Trump has God and the American People on his side. That is it.
Fell alseep on the couch last night woke of to that ass hat Conan. He had some bimbo on interview and all she could talk about was how much she hated President Trump.
Gonna be a civil war.
“The Trump administration is off to a rocky start...”
It had been traditional to give a new administration a “honeymoon” period to get there staff in and up to speed.
The media and the Democrats never quit campaigning against Trump. President Trump has already done a lot in his first few months in office, I am looking forward to the next four years.
It really sucks to be a LIBERAL right now, the trend is against them.
Great graphics - I’m a visual learner, so this is wonderful.
Wow, nice work on her part.
Worries me that they may turn Texas blue. And parts of the Southwest look gone forever. Colorado? A blue Arizona? More migration from California to the red states like Idaho could kill us.
And we all know the Dims are trying to offset this with Third World immigrants, both legal and illegal.
Which is why we need to hang on to the electoral college.
The biggest challenge to the Dem party, is the increasing impression among white voters that the Dem party is hostile to white people in general, and working white male Christians in particular. The Trump election showed a lot of white working class leaving the Dems.
RE: Nearly 2.75 million more Americans left California and New York than entered these states.
As a New Yorker, I can tell you that NY State made up for the loss with NEW IMMIGRATION. I bet California did the same.
We’re going more red yet look at the shape we’re in. How does it explain the sudden jump in snowflakes and outraged liberals?
Texas is of course blue along the border (can you say illegals?) and right up the I-35 corridor.
The Democratic Party suffered huge losses at every level during Obamas West Wing tenure. The grand total: a net loss of 1,042 state and federal Democratic posts, including congressional and state legislative seats, governorships and the presidency.
The latter was perhaps the most profound example of Obama's popularity failing to translate to support for his allies. Hillary Clinton, who served as secretary of state under Obama, brought the first family out for numerous campaign appearances. In September, Obama declared that his legacys on the ballot.
Less than two months later, Americans voted for Donald Trump.
From every angle, the Democratic Party looks like they're in an uphill climb, even all the way down to the local precinct level.........
Let's hear a chorus of the DNC anthem: "Nobody knows the troubles I've seen."
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