Posted on 12/01/2016 3:59:11 PM PST by Clintonfatigued
The first polling is out for the soon to be open 6th district seat held by future Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price. In a Landmark Rosetta Stone poll of 500 voters. Former Secretary of State Karen Handel leads at 21.7%, followed by State Rep. and Tom Price’s wife Betty Price at 10%. State Senator Judson Hill, who officially announced his bid, has 8.4%, and State Senator Brandon Beach at 4%. 55.7% are undecided.
There are several caveats to consider when considering the results. First of all, not all potential candidates are listed. Others, including Sen. John Albers and House Speaker Pro Tem Jan Jones were not included, for example. In addition, it is widely believed by insiders that should Handel run, Betty Price would not, and vice versa. IN addition, there were no Democratic names in the poll.
While candidates can explore their options now, Tom Price is unlikely to resign his seat until after he is confirmed by the Senate, which could be in late January. Between qualifying and the election, which is likely to include a runoff, the race may not be settled until June.
(Excerpt) Read more at georgiapol.com ...
Tom Price and Karen Handel are allies, so if Price gets confirmed, Handel is the name to watch.
Handle as SOS was instrumental in getting the voter ID passed in Georgia.She should win the seat.
At this point its about name recognition. I liked Handel when she stood up to PP. Any other names possible to be running?
I supported Karen Handel when she ran for the U.S. Senate, and I support her in the special election to succeed Congressman Price when he obtains confirmation as Secretary of HHS. Handel is one brave lady, and a principled conservative. She also would become the first Republican woman to represent Georgia in Congress.
The GA-06 takes in the mostly high-income suburbs north of Atlanta. The area has been heavily Republican for decades, and comprised Newt Gingrich’s district in the 1990s. Romney trounced Obama in the GA-06 (60.8% to 37.5%), but, like in most high-income suburbs nationwide, Trump underperformed Romney in the GA-06 and carried it over Hillary by a narrow 48.3% to 46.8% margin. However, I do not foresee Karen Handel having any trouble winning the special election.
Oh no. Handel nearly destroyed the SOS office, in terms of functionality, during her term. When I hear the term “political hack” here in south GA, she springs to mind.
Uneducated, undisciplined and unmoored from fiscally conservative principles is not who we need.
Where are you getting the GA prez vote by congressional district from?
Yikes, some of these damn suburbs.
Dave Leip has the VA district numbers, the 10th district was held for us by Barabra Comstock by 7 points. Damn Shillery carried it by 10. Comstock actually lost the Loudon county portion of it by a few votes, carried the rest of it, the Fairfax and Prince Williams portions.
The OC. Chester PA.
Friggin DuPage Illinois. Her best county in IL was Cook, her 2nd best was Lake (twice carried by Bush), her 3rd best was damn Champaign (University of Illinois) and her FOURTH BEST county in the state was DuPage which Obama only won over Romney by a hair. Will was a lot closer, only a 6 point win, Will never votes more Republican than DuPage.
Well, I don’t know anything about her spending as Secretary of State, but didn’t she put in place the voter-ID requirement that makes it harder for keeps Democrats to steal elections in GA? And she certainly gained my respect and admiration when she stood up to the abortionists at Planned Parenthood while serving at the Susan Komen Foundation (the breast-cancer group).
Who do you like for the GA-06?
“Where are you getting the GA prez vote by congressional district from?”
I got the GA presidential vote by CD from the moonbats at Daily Kos, who once again are crunching all the numbers so that we don’t have to do so. They already have up CD presidential data for AR, CT, GA, HI, ID, KY, LA, MN, NH, NM, NV, OK, SC, UT and VA; for some reason, they don’t have CD numbers up for ME or NE, which Dave Leip already has made available.
Here’s the link; it should go without saying that there’s a barf alert for all of the articles on the website:
“Will was a lot closer, only a 6 point win, Will never votes more Republican than DuPage.”
David Nir of Daily Kos just put up CD presidential numbers for OH. Trump carried all 12 GOP-held CDs, and outperformed Romney in 13 of the 16 CDs in the state (all but the Cincinnati-based OH-01 represented by Republican Steve Chabot; where Trump got 51.2% to Romney’s 52.4%, the Columbus-based OH-03 represented by Democrat Joyce Beatty, where Trump got 28.6% to Romney’s 28.9%; and the suburban-Columbus OH-12 represented by Republican Patrick Tiberi, where Trump got 53.2% to Romney’s 54.4%.
There was some speculation that Trump may have carried the Mahoning Valley-to-Akron OH-13 represented by Democrat Tim Ryan (in fact, Nancy Pelosi scoffed at Tim Ryan’s challenge for the Minority Leader position by saying that Ryan wasn’t even able to help Hillary carry his own district), but the less Democrat parts of Mahoning and Trumbull Counties lie outside the CD and apparently the Akron precincts in the district went strongly enough for Hillary that she was able to carry the district by 51.1% to 44.6%. But Hillary’s 6.5% margin was a huge drop from Obama’s 27.5% margin in 2012, and Trump’s 9.2% outperformance of Romney was his second-best among OH CDs (Trump outperformed Romney by a whopping 14.1% in the OH-06, represented by Republican Bill Johnson (but formerly held by Democrat ex-Gov. Ted Strickland, who got trounced by Rob Portman in the Senate race both statewide and in the district) that runs along the Ohio River from Portsmouth to Poland (or thereabouts).
Here’s the presidential-vote-by-CD link once again: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections
If I were Tim Ryan, I’d be very concerned that the OH GOP leg could shift the CD lines and would be out of a job. That district should be sending a populist, blue-collar Republican now. If Traficant were still alive and holding the district, this might’ve been the year he switched parties. Ryan is a hard-core leftist, the antithesis of Traficant.
A month ago, I would have argued strongly against unpacking Tim Ryan’s CD, which gave Obama 63% and is surrounded by GOP-held districts that gave Romney narrow margins (50.9% in David Joyce’s CD, 53.4% in Renacci’s CD, 53.7% in Gibbs’s CD, and 55.2% in Johnson’s CD). However, given that the black-majority OH-11 will need to expand into more of Akron after the 2020 Census, and that Mahoning County (Youngstown) and Trumbull County (Warren) were so competitive for Trump (plus he won big in Ashtabula, etc. to the north, Jefferson, etc. to the south and Stark to the west), I think that Tim Ryan’s CD can be portioned off among its neighbors.
OH will lose a congressional district after the 2020 Census, and Northeast OH is one of the areas with the biggest population losses in the state, so extending Joyce’s OH-14 south to take on all of Trumbull and the northern half of Portage, extending Johnson’s OH-06 north to grab all of Mahoning, moving the OH-07 north to take on the southern half of Portage, having the OH-16 grab some of the less Democrat parts of Akron’s Summit County, and putting Ryan’s district’s more heavily Democrat parts of Akron in Fudge’s black-majority OH-11. That way, all of those socially conservative blue-collar voters in Ryan’s CD will get a new Republican congressman, and the Democrats would be down to only three U.S. Representatives from Ohio.
Of course, Ohio Republicans have to prove that Trump’s gains in OH were not a one-time-only deal. 2018 will be a key test, as populist liberal Democrat Sherrod Brown runs for reelection to the Senate, and whomever we run (I think that Congressman Steve Chabot of Cincinnati or maybe State Treasurer Josh Mandel (who is from Cleveland, and ran a competitive race against Brown in 2012) would be best, but there are several other good candidates in the state, none of whom are named “Kasich”), who could win back the state’s other Senate seat.
So I guess that will eliminate Ryan’s seat then. ;-D
I’m puzzled by your suggestion to run Rep. Steve Chabot for the Senate in 2018. He’ll turn 66 less than 3 weeks before the convening of Congress in 2019. We need younger blood here. Mandel might be better off running for the open Governorship instead. I see AG Mike DeWine has already declared for the Governorship, we don’t need another RINO in that office. There hasn’t been a non-RINO Governor elected in Ohio since Jim Rhodes won his 4th and final term in 1978. I kinda wish Ken Blackwell would give it another try, but he’ll be almost 71 at the start of the term.
I’m worried Pig Vomit will try to run for Senator, which would assure scores of Republicans voting for Sherrod Brown or not voting at all. We already know he was happy to have (and counted on) Hillary becoming President, so a nice gift to the Dems in the form of a Senate seat that should be in GOP hands ain’t out of the question. At this point, I’m not sure who should be the Senate nominee.
Young blood would be great, but winning the election is imperative. Sherrod Brown turned Seth Mandel’s youth against him last time, and we need to pick the candidate who can (i) win and (ii) do a good job for at least two terms. Chabot has experience and guts, and his base in the Cincinnati area could be the key to victory. He can get elected at 66 and reelected at 72, and if he retires at 78 (in a non-presidential year, making it easier for us to hold the seat) after having served 12 solid years in the Senate, I wouldn’t see that as a disappointment. BTW, do you know who also will be 78 at the end of his second term in office? Donald Trump. I don’t think age will be a factor for either of them.
You brought up the terrific Ken Blackwell, who unfortunately picked the wrong year to run fir governor (2006). If Blackwell wants to serve in Congress for a coupke of terms, he could run to succeed Chabot.
For the record, my preferred Senate candidate from OH is the same person that topped my list 10 years ago: Congressman Jim Jordan. But I don’t think Jordan wants to give up his safe U.S.House seat or his power as head of the Republican Study Committee.
I have urged Team Trump to tab Jordan for something.
“He’s on my board,” said Bannon.
Voting for Sherrod Brown? That would be psychotic. I don’t think Ohio Republicans are psychotics, that would like eating of the toilet cause you burned your dinner.
I’ll personally kick the butt of anyone advocating a vote for a democrat for the US Senate for ANY reason (other than a Harris/Sanchez situation in states with stupid election systems) just as I kicked the butts of the mental midgets who supported Alison Hillary Hussein “Grimey” Lunderfrown Grime(s), it’s the same thing as voting for Hitler at this point to vote for democrat pestilence, not an option, period, if the Republicans nominate feces you can’t support, fine, don’t vote for it, but don’t vote for Hitler either. Cannot be tolerated, liberal rats never vow to vote Republican if their favorite moonbats aren’t nominated, never. We need to move far far away from this logically flawed kind of thinking.
That said, I share your extreme distaste for Gay’s itch and really hope he does not run for Senate or loses the primary if he does. Charlie Crist his @ss, if he thinks he’s entitled to it he’s got another thing coming. He should be named Ambassador to Bhutan (we’ve never had one).
Chabot is an interesting suggestion, I don’t know if he’d be interested but there is much to said about that possibility. 66 ain’t old for a Senator, Trump is 70, who cares, so I have no problem with Chabot on those grounds. We need red blood, winning blood.
On redistricting, we indeed need to be sure that places that Mahoning OH and Lackawanna PA are undergoing sufficient, to coin a term, West Virginiazation, before we act on that.
Sherrod Brown will be 66 in 2018. Trotting out the youth and inexperience card against Josh Mandel (who will be 41 by 2018) again won’t work. He’ll have 8 years under his belt as State Treasurer (conversely, he was barely a year into his term when he ran for the Senate). I just believe it’s a chronic problem of having scores of senior citizens in the Senate, so thoroughly out of touch with the rest of the country. Other than for a 2-year gap (’91-’93), Brown will have been in office for 44 years continuously (first elected to the OH leg in 1974 at 22), 2/3rds of his life.
I’d prefer to run someone in their 40s or early 50s as optimal. Chabot giving up 22 years of House seniority (I’m presuming he was restored credit after regaining his seat) to be a Senate backbencher may not appeal to him and I don’t see him as particularly ideal.
As for the Trump age comparison, I think it’s a bit of apples to oranges, if only because he is an outsider and not pursuing a long career in government.
NE-02 was too close for comfort. 2 points. Only MI/WI/PA/FL were closer wins. Way too close. Nebraska needs to dispense with the splitting.
Especially concerning was seeing both of NE’s largest counties fall to the dark side. They did vote for Zero in ‘08, but swung back to Willard in ‘12 only to go back to the Butcheress in ‘16.
The two largest counties were dominated by (i) a mostly white-collar big city and (ii) a state capital/college town combo, respectively. Given the presidential-election results in similar cities nationwide, the facts that Trump did poorly in Omaha and Lincoln should not be surprising. Trump’s most problematic underperformance as compared to prior Republicans wasn’t with women or with minorities as most people predicted, but with white-collar white Anglos. Fortunately, his historic overperformance with blue-collar white Anglos more than compensated to put him over the top in PA, MI and WI (not to mention OH and IA, where he romped) and come close to carrying MN, NH and ME (and kept states like NC, GA and AZ from slipping away entirely). (Trump did better with white-collar white Anglos in FL than in most other states, which was a key to his victory there.)
As for NE allocating EVs by CD, I’d keep it, if only because I want a dozen or so swing states controlled by the GOP to adopt a similar system so that the GOP presidential nominee can be elected even if he loses FL and the Great Lakes states by 1% rather than winning them by 1% like Trump did, and having a continuous CD allocation practice in multiple states (NE and ME) could be vital in order to convince courts that each of PA, OH, MI, WI, FL, MN, NV, VA and CO (the last four require us to win state elections in 2017 or 2018) adopting the CD allocation system for EVs merely is a case of states following the retorm tradition of ME and NE, and not a ploy to steal elections. Having NE dump its system right before all of those states adopt it would be quite unhelpful, particularly in the eyes of someone like Anthony Kennedy.
In fact, I would like each of NE and ME (but certainly at lesst NE) to modify its system so that the two EVs that are not allocated by CD are given in the following way: one to the statewide winner, and one winner of the greatest number of CDs (or if there’s a tie in CDs, to the candidate with the most statewide votes among those that tied). (Currently, both of those CDs are given to the statewide winner.) Such change wiuld not make much of a difference in NE or ME (in fact, the only way that it could make a difference in ME is if there’s a really strong third-party candidate and the statewide winner does not carry either CD), but it would give the GOP an additional EV in each new state that adopts it (assuming that the GOP drew the district lines competently) even if our presidential candidate falls short in the statewide vote. What I would not recommend is allocating both additional EVs to the winner of the most CDs (as VA Republicans proposed a few years ago) because the statewide vote would have no bearing on EV allocation and that would increase the odds of the system being struck down by the courts.
As for NE-02 being too close for comfort, that’s true not only in the presidential race but in House elections as well. They need to draw NE-02 so that it starts at the SE corner of the state, with counties up to the border with (but certainly not including) Lancaster County, and when it gets up to Omaha’s Douglas County it won’t be able to include all of it, so Democrat parts of Omaha should be placed in NE-03 (which should cover the entire northern part of the state, with NE-01 losing its northeast counties and adding ciunties in the SW of the state. That would give us three comfortabky Republican CDs so that we surely elect three Republicans to Congress and our oresidential nominee wins all five EVs.
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