Posted on 12/01/2016 3:59:11 PM PST by Clintonfatigued
It seems we were quite fortunate that despite Omaha/Douglas County going to the Evil One, that Republican Bacon was able to knock off freshman Dem Ashmore. Bacon lost Douglas by 50-46%, but carried it entirely due to his huge margin in Sarpy (60-36%). One of the few GOP House gains (or was it the only one ?).
We picked up FL-2 (though that was due to court-ordered redistricting that pulled Tallahassee out of the district, making it a safe GOP seat) and Pat Murphy’s open FL-18 seat.
No, I was thinking we didn’t defeat any incumbents other than Ashford in NE-2. We still had a net loss of 1 in FL because of those absurd, biased and unconstitutional rulings to give Dems an unfair advantage. The FL legislature should have a free hand in drawing the seats, period. Same with Arizona.
Ashford was the only rat incumbent in Congress to lose, yes. Thanks to a couple steals in MN. 2 FL seats only other pickups, other than PR Resident Commissioner, who really shouldn’t be called that cause it’s kinda the opposite of Resident Commissioner. I wonder why they don’t have a regular old “delegate” that serves a 2-year term.
The candidate who ran against Colin Peterson (wasn’t one of the steals but a close race) is running again in 2018. Retire already, Peterson!
Great point, it’s ridiculous to have a such a close district while Nebraska 3 sits there 75% Republican. The lamewad state legislature should have redrawn it to be safe, that would solve the Pres problem.
This technically non-partisan legislature thing they have there is poisonous leads to the election of RINOs that like to play footsy with the enemy.
OK, Daily Kos now has the Iowa presidential vote by CD up:
IA-01 (Blum-R): 48.7% Trump (up 6.2% over Romney), 45.2% Clinton
IA-02 (Loebsack-D): 49.1% Trump (up 6.4% over Romney), 45.0% Clinton
IA-03 (Young-R): 48.5% Trump (up only 1.3% over Romney; stupid Des Moines), 45.0% Clinton
IA-04 (King-R): 60.9% Trump (up 7.5% over Romney), 33.5% Clinton
We need to run a strong challenger to Loebsack in 2018.
Hmm interesting, 1-3 all close to the same (thanks to a paltry gain in the 3rd due to Dim Oink) , but with CD 2, the worst district previously and only one rat held, now the best of the 3.
Daily Kos now has the Illinois presidential vote by CD up:
Sorry for the formatting; percentages are listed in the following order:
Hillary 2016; Trump 2016; Obama 2012; Romney 2012:
IL-01 Rush, Bobby (D) 75.4 21.4 79.0 20.2
IL-02 Kelly, Robin (D) 78.0 19.1 80.7 18.5
IL-03 Lipinski, Dan (D) 55.2 39.9 55.9 42.6
IL-04 Gutierrez, Luis (D) 82.1 13.2 80.9 17.1
IL-05 Quigley, Mike (D) 70.5 23.9 66.0 31.8
IL-06 Roskam, Peter (R) 50.2 43.2 45.1 53.3
IL-07 Davis, Danny (D) 87.4 9.2 87.2 11.8
IL-08 Krishnamoorthi, Raja (D) 58.1 36.4 57.4 40.9
IL-09 Schakowsky, Jan (D) 70.1 24.9 65.0 33.3
IL-10 Schneider, Brad (D) (formerly Dold (R)) 62.0 32.6 57.5 41.1
IL-11 Foster, Bill (D) 58.9 35.4 57.8 40.6
IL-12 Bost, Mike (R) 40.2 55.0 49.7 48.2
IL-13 Davis, Rodney (R) 44.2 49.7 48.6 48.9
IL-14 Hultgren, Randy (R) 44.8 48.7 44.2 54.2
IL-15 Shimkus, John (R) 24.5 70.7 34.1 63.9
IL-16 Kinzinger, Adam (R) 38.3 55.5 45.2 52.9
IL-17 Bustos, Cheri (D) 46.7 47.4 57.6 40.6
IL-18 LaHood, Darin (R) 33.3 60.6 37.4 60.7
So IL-17 (Cheri Bustos’s Rock Island/Moline-based seat) is our best bet for a 2018 takeover.
No surprises, I figured the swing in the 13th would be a little bigger though.
Big swing to Trump in Western IL, taking counties Romney lost. I figured he carried the 17th, narrowly. Under the previous lines it would have stayed in our hands in 2012.
Rock Island County elected a GOP State Senator in 2014.
Mandel is officially running for Senate, boy Daily Kos REALLY hates him.
Nothing on Chabot but another House veteran might be interested, Pat Tiberi.
Mandel seems to be stronger this time around, more seasoned. I thought I saw polling data indicating Mandel is much more of a threat to Sherrod Brown. It’ll be curious if Brown decides to bow out, which would give Mandel clear sailing (presuming Pig Vomit doesn’t try to throw a wrench in it).
Not surprised to hear Daily Kos nutters hating him. A Jewish Conservative !
Why in the world would he?
When it appears that an impending defeat is coming in the next election, retiring is a smart option. Brown has to know that even if he wins reelection, the Dems will continue to be in the Senate minority for at least 6-8 years.
He can go make some money in the private sector.
Sherrod Brown has been in elective office since pretty much the day that he graduated from college. He’s likelier to run for president than to enter the private sector. I also saw a recent poll (as in from this past week) showing Mandel beating Brown, but it was like 39%-38% with a gazillion undecideds, and Brown probably thinks that he can beat Mandel again. I guess that Mandel will have to teach him that that’s not the case.
I think that I’d rather have Mandel running against Brown than I would Tiberi; I know that I’d rather have Mandel than Tiberi in the Senate.
BTW, 24 hours ago, the RATs were holding out hope that they could cut down the GOP Senate advantage to a mere 51-49 with an upset in the LA runoff. Well, tonight they are looking at an almost certain 53-47 GOP Senate. Not only did Republican John N. Kennedy win the Senate runoff in LA (by like 62%-38%), but it was reported that President-elect Trump will name ND RAT Senator Heidi Heitkamp as Secretary of Agriculture. The report also said that Heitkamp’s replacement would be elected in a special election; if true, ND must have changed its law fairly recently (I know that the ND governor was appointing Senators as recently as 1992). In any event, she will be replaced by a Republican in the next few months.
In case you’re wondering about the two LA U.S. House runoffs, conservative Republican Mike Johnson beat the Democrat by 65%-35% in the Shreveport-based CD (the least heavily Republican of the five GOP-held CDs), and conservative Republican Clay Higgins beat RINO Scott Angelle (the sore loser that endorsed the Democrat in the 2015 gubernatorial runoff) in the Lafayette-based CD.
I didn’t know either that ND had no gubernatorial appointments for Senate vacancies (any longer).
http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vacancies-in-the-united-states-senate.aspx
Special election to be called within 95 days of vacancy
This might be a good thing in this case, as it gives Heidi! more cover to accept the job as the democrats will be given a fair chance to hold the seat. I’m sure she’s under pressure to decline regardless.
From your link:
“Recent Legislative Action
In 2015, North Dakota enacted House Bill 1181 which requires a special election and removes the power of the governor to appoint a replacement.”
What the heck was the Democrat legislature thinking? They purposely will be leaving a Senate seat vacant for months at a time.
Republican leg you mena.
Well, here’s a news article
Seems it was done so as not to allow Heidi to choose her own replacement had she run for and been elected Governor in 2016, she was reportedly considering it. The bill’s sponsor says that was only a secondary factor but I don’t buy that.
Republican leg you mena.
Well, here’s a news article
Seems it was done so as not to allow Heidi to choose her own replacement had she run for and been elected Governor in 2016, she was reportedly considering it. The bill’s sponsor says that was only a secondary factor but I don’t buy that.
I did mean Republican legislature; it’s late and I’m tired.
They could have passed a law so that there must be a special election within 95 days or whatever but still permit the governor to appoint a temporary replacement.
Frankly, a newly elected governor appointing his or her replacement is not as offensive to me as the lame-duck governor making the appointment the second that the governor-elect resigns the Senate seat in order to take the oath of office as governor. That’s what Alaska RAT Gov. Tony Knowles was planning on doing when Sen. Frank Murkowski was elected governor. The AK GOP legislature passed a law, over Knowles’s veto, that provided that 30 days must pass after a Senator has resigned before a governor may appoint the replacement, and I think that it’s a good model for other states (although I would shorten the period to 5 days, which gives a Senstor that is elected governor the ability to resign a couple of days before being sworn in as governor and still be able to name the new senator.
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