Posted on 11/13/2016 11:44:29 AM PST by LS
Boy was I wrong. All along I had Trump at between 62 and 64 million votes. Our overly optimistic friend "Sundance" at www.conservativetreehouse.com was completely off the charts unrealistic, with a projection of 73 million.
Yes, Trump won the electoral college---as I predicted---big. As of today I think he is at 304. Another 720,000 votes in seven states would have given him an additional 43 electoral votes.
But unfortunately I was right in another prediction: the margin would be large, but each state would be decided by a small fraction of voters. Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, and Florida all hinged on fewer than 180,000 votes. To appreciate how close that is, Obama won reelection in 2008 by under 480,000 votes, and I thought that was very close. I did correctly predict that the dominoes would all fall in the same direction, and, more or less, they did. We lost VA and NH in the east, and NV and CO by larger margins in the west, but the battleground tier of OH, WI, MI, PA, IA, NC, and FL all fell to Trump.
So it's time to put good feelings aside for just a moment---we'll have plenty more in the coming months---and appreciate just how close . . . how MIRACULOUS . . . this election was.
You begin with Hillary Clinton, the equivalent of a new coach being given a Super Bowl team with All Stars at every position and a free agent budget the size of Jupiter (less the emigrating Cher). Cankles had 90% name recognition, a sitting president more or less behind her, a docile party obedient to her whims, and a fawning media such that Saddam Hussein or Napoleon would have been fortunate to have.
And with all that she got six million fewer votes than Zero in his second election (where he got millions fewer than in 2008). It's darn near unfathomable, looking at it objectively, to figure out how she lost, given the numbers.
She'll likely end up winning the popular vote by 500,000 to 1 million, held the expected liberal vote treasures of New York, Illinois, and California, held Obama's western states without exception, eked out a narrow win in New Hampshire, and got Virginia as expected.
Yet she was crushed in the electoral college by a guy who spent HALF as much as she did. How?
*She didn't make any inroads at all with females---supposedly Cankles' calling card. White women went for Trump. There was no big "gender gap," except with men, who couldn't stand her.
*She lost millions of black and hispanic votes. Pew's research is unreliable---these guys did polls, remember? ---but they say Trump only got 8% of blacks. (I find that very unlikely, especially when every other poll was showing him at nearly double that.) But if blacks didn't vote for Trump, they sure didn't vote for Cankles. In FL and NC, when all is said and done she probably lost several hundred thousand African-American votes.
*"Da Yuts" were repelled by her. They stayed home.
*She lost the northern tier of rust belt states because she just didn't care. Cankles made NO visits to Wisconsin, only a couple of desperation trips to Michigan and Pennsylvania in the end. That message got out.
*Trump was indeed hurt by the tape, and vote counters in Ohio found that erstwhile R absentees dated right after the tape release suddenly had a very high percentage of Johnson votes. I'm guessing the tape cost Trump NH, possibly MN.
Still, the tape cannot account for the lack of turnout for Trump. NeverTrumpers? Some. For whatever reason, though, Trump did not turn out the large number of new voters that was expected by his supporters such as myself. (The limited data we have says that 90% of Republicans voted for him).
That leaves us with one explanation: Trump's election was a miracle. Some 60,000-70,000 voters in MI and PA saved the country. WI was a nice addition, but without one more state, WI's 10 electoral votes wouldn't have put Trump over. No, this was divine intervention.
And, in a way, it is perfectly in keeping with the Bible, for it was Gideon who prepared to go to war with 30,000 men . . . "the old fashioned way." God told him many were not committed, and to winnow them out. When only 3,000 remained, Gideon was told to cut the number further. Finally only 300 fully committed men remained. The message was that God wanted Gideon to know that it was His power, not numbers or the skill of the troops, that would bring victory.
So in the end, our "monster vote" never materialized. God cut the number down to under 180,000 in five states so that no one could doubt Who really won this one.
I have been praying for this very thing.
You’re correct. The popular votes will not be in for a few weeks at least. Trump just got three hundred thousand more overnight last night. In the end he’ll probably wind wind up with 61 or 62 million..higher than Romney.
The fix was in in every state. That's what Trump fought. Where he won, the fix failed. Hillary has nothing but cheating.
I think Trump turned out a significant number of new voters and also attracted some Dims, but he probably also lost a fair number of prim and proper Republican votes and NeverTrumpers that held down his vote total.
Amen, this victory was indeed by the mercy and grace of God upon our nation.
Yes, the NYT had some nice dials and Bill Mitchell was saying same as he tweeted away. However, they showed states where Trump was winning but had a high % for Hillary - nice dial, but inconsistent. However, I will grant you that the overall winner dial seemed to work.
Also, I woudn’t say there was no monster vote... It manifested itself in places for sure... most noteably the upper midwest. However, overall vote totals were down, and down big... though the provisional ballots haven’t all been counted, so exactly how far down not sure yet.. but right now looks like about 120M ish votes cast compared to 127M ish in 12 and 130M ish in 08.
PA in particular Trump put more votes in the box than Obama did in 12... He overperformed Romney by over 225k votes... Meanwhile Hillary was only down about a little under 50k votes from Obama in 12. Those 175k votes came from somewhere.... And that was in an election where it looks at least at this point where overall turnout will be noticeably down from 12.
WI definitely seems to support no monster vote argument, as Trump basically put the same number of votes in the box as O in 12... but Hillary was down by nearly 240K there!
MI though again supports a monster vote.. Trump overperformed Romney by 164k votes.. Hillary underperformed by nearly 300k votes there. too.
PA, MI and WI clearly had a monster vote... those improvements are nothing to sneeze at... but only PA put enough votes in the box to have beat Obamas 12 numbers... but this was never about beating obama’s 12 numbers, because obama’s 12 numbers were never going to be hit, and that’s why the press and the pundits had this all wrong from day one... they insisted on using 12 as a baseline and it was an unrealistic one.
In these 3 state combined... Hillary underperformed Obama by over 600k votes.. This wasn’t hard to predict, hell if a schlub like me saw this coming, then anyone who is paid and doing this for a living should have seen this coming... and for all their high talk publicly to the contrary, I don’t think for one minute anyone honestly thought Hillary would pull 2012 numbers..
However they never, ever expected Trump to put over 500k more votes in the box in PA and MI!
There was a monster vote, and it was hiding in plane sight, and as you and I agree, the tapes probably depressed these numbers significantly... Not just in these states but across the north east. Trump was just starting to break away when the tape was put out because they had no choice, had he broken the damn which he was starting to the tape would not have had any shot of stopping it.
I haven’t looked at every state, and there totals... I do admit my original overall view of the election did not come to pass, and I think the tape was the single reason why... However, I always admitted from the primaries... Trump may not take red states by the same margins as another R might.. but he was going to be able to win blue states no other R could manage...
He proved me right... I suspect when its all said and done, most of the southern states margines may have been smaller, than 12, but Trump flipped PA, MI and WI... something no other R could have done... not a one of the lot... no other R could have flipped one, let alone all 3 of these, and the R was going to need to take at least 1 of these to win... Taking FL, OH, IA even NH while holding NC didn’t get you to 270... the D’s knew this, and that’s why they were so damned arrogant all cycle, they never in a million years thought this could happen..
Another correct post. Everyone was waiting for Pennsylvania in the media but reality was he had Arizona Alaska and the one vote from Maine and he was at 270. He was there for a couple hours before they decided to call Pennsylvania. It really was a sham what the media did at the end of the night on Tuesday, because Trump was already at 270....he didn’t need Pennsylvania or Michigan.
>> She’ll likely end up winning the popular vote by 500,000 to 1 million <<
Maybe you and others should stop spreading this mischievously misleading meme.
If it’s true (as I’ve read on other FR threads) that absentee ballots aren’t counted in a typical state unless they could theoretically make a difference for that state’s outcome, and if it’s also true that the GOP vote is normally a larger percentage of the absentees than is the Dem vote, then who can say what a count of the absentee votes in “outside-the-margin” states like CA, NY & TX would truly reveal?
Bottom line:
IMHO, the odds are only 50-50 that Clinton got more total votes that did Trump — even though she will certainly have received more of the votes that are actually counted.
Amen! A good and holy intention, LS! Wonderful!
May it be done!
It seems to be quite popular are various Twitter addresses, but then they may be just copying each other.
If you'll look at the internet location, it appears to come from PBS.
Go here: LINK: put your cursor at the end of the address, type "/" and hit your right arrow...
You'll see this listed with what seems to be other PBS offerings.
Perhaps that's not what it is at all. If someone has a better explanation I'd be glad to hear it.
If these numbers are correct, you weren't off at all.
God bless you, stonehouse01! It was to those like you whom God rewarded. The nation rides on your sacrifices!
Keep me on your ping list..
This victory belongs to God alone.
Pray we can keep it. De Toqueville ROCKS!
They aren't hateful from of our lack of love and kindness. They're hateful because they're spiritually contemptuous and have chosen evil.
Maybe God is waiting for us to stand up to them, rather than "understand" and thereby enable and protect them in pursuing evil. And maybe the clue is that while these people are raping our country to death, they constantly demand ever more "understanding" and "love" and "peace."
Dearest Phyliss. Pray for us, Phyliss!
Thanks, DO, for the reflection on courageous Phyliss.
I finally had the courage to watch a couple of episodes of “The Circus”, Showtime’s documentary about the election.
They just released the episode of the final week of the campaign (just before the election).
All four “experts” said Hillary had it easily.
rofl!
P.S. One show kept asking why Trump was wasting his time in Wisconsin.
“experts”, yeah right.
That poodle of hers, who runs the state, dumped the 60,000 criminal votes in, late?
Indeed. Anecdotal but some Republicans told me that they were turned off by the tape but in the end they voted for Trump only because they were against Hillary. Whatever, he WON! God has used an imperfect human being with a strong personality and an iron will, the right person to drain the swamp and in the process be forever changed himself. Thank you LS for keeping our hopes up with your posts.
You have to factor in the fraud. There was a monster vote it was hidden in the fraud.
Incidentally, you were correct in 2012 as well. It was fraud that "won" that election too.
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