Trafalgar Florida poll Trump +4

www.realclearpolitics.com ^ | 11/07/2017 | Trafalgar Group

[ThinkingBuddha]

Which candidate do you think most of your neighbors are voting for? Trump +18

Southeast Florida seems to be the only problem. Trump leads in every other region

[ZagFan]

Larry Sabato’s final prediction from FOX:

Hillary 322 EV’s
Senate 50-50
House loses 13, 15, something like that

[Genoa]

How do you know that?

Mental telepathy. In Dade and Broward, it's non-PC to say you're for Trump, especially if you're Jewish, black, or Cuban. So they keep it on the QT. They don't even talk to pollsters. Someone might be listening.

[Genoa]

And you think this is important because....?

[Preston Manning]

The same polling outfit (Trafalgar) now has Trump up two in PA.

http://tinyurl.com/jb7nch2

[governsleastgovernsbest]

I’ve never heard of Trafalgar polling: anyone familiar with them, know if they’re reliable?

[Revolutionary]

Trafalgar Polling tends to be quite good. I really like the Who do you think your neighbors are voting for? question. It really broadens the reach of the poll beyond the sample size. Not as scientific, but I think a good indicator. A lot of the polls, including this one, are oversampling women. These folks are probably hedging the increased female voter turnout because of a woman in the race. I don’t think that is going to materialize. Partially because I think there is going to be an equal or larger increase in the male vote because of the wicked witch.

[Rockingham]

I am not sure that the I-4 corridor is as malleable in its national political sympathies as it seems. In state and local politics, yes, but in national politics, most newcomers are fairly well-set in their views when they arrive here. Since they often lag in getting registered, this tends to make for recurrent waves of new registration every four years, with a long-term trend of rising Hispanic registration that leans Democrat.

[a real Sheila]

I live in a small subdivision in red county in a red state.
I KNOW most of my neighbors are voting Trump.
I’ve seen Trump yard signs.

I briefly saw a Hillary sign on the interstate exit last week. It was GONE before the day ended.

[God luvs America]

enjoyed reading this again...

[Vigilanteman]

I enjoyed seeing this again:

While it was only a 1.2% win, we will take it!