Posted on 11/06/2016 7:37:21 AM PST by LS
First, thanks to JimRob for a site that lets us present not only articles and news, but opinion pieces. (I'll be kicking in another $100 here in a few minutes).
Now, on to business.
Freepers Ravi and SpeedyinTexas have done a bang-up job tracking registrations and early votes in IA, FL, and NC. My unnamed friends in Dayton, OH have been very good about giving me inside data from OH.
Some time ago I predicted Trump would win OH, FL, IA, and NC. I think that's a given now. Pollster Richard Baris told him that Cankles' people privately told him NC was "gone." Yes, she's still in OH and FL, but I think these are more desperation efforts as she is literally now just one small state from being completely unable to win. NV, CO, MI, MN, VA, PA, WI, or any combo of those pretty much seals her doom, but of course we want them ALL.
Baris also confirmed today that his final weekend polling shows FL out of reach for her---as I said. My guys see it taking a miracle for her to win OH.
The early voting (EV) in NV is troubling in that Ds have about a 40,000 advantage---but overall it is down from 56% in 2012 to 52%, and the main thing (as in most of these states) is that we do not know how "independents" especially will vote. Most polls show Trump anywhere from 7 to 20 points up with indies. I tend to use about 10% as a yardstick. With that, and with just a small D crossover in NV, Trump will win there.
We have two polls that show antiTrump Rs/antiHillary Ds shaking out at between +5 Trump and +7 Trump. If that's the case, Trump would win PA, MI, VA, and probably MN.
A week ago, as some of you know, I got internals from Team Trump, with whom I've been in very close contact for two months. This comes from the very top. Those internals showed VERY close races in eight states, including MI, NM, PA, VA, CT, RI, OR, WI. All were very much within "turnout margin." Trump was up in some, down just 1-2 in others. I do not have an update on any of these except yesterday Trump's communications director said they were up in NM. This confirmed a report earlier in the week by Kellyanne Conway who said they were "tied" in NM and MI.
I've spoken with some R strategists in MI. This is very winnable and Trump is doing fantastic in Macomb Co., up double digits. He's down just single digits in Oakland. If Oakland can just be "managed," the north/west vote will outperform Wayne. Currently absentees from Wayne way off (-12%) so MI is looking very good. Again, apply the D/R crossover # above, and MI is quite possibly Trump's. This GOP source said that at the Macomb rally he'd "never seen so many blue collar Ds at a Republican rally."
PA appears tighter. Insiders say that Trump is up huge all over the state except Philly---even in Pitt---but the black vote in Philly is, based on performance everywhere else, likely to be down.
Currently in FL black vote is off 3, NC off by 4-6. These are astounding #s and mean that in FL Cankles will lose over 110,000 votes off Obama's total right there; in NC, closer to 200,000; and nationwide close to 1 million. Moreover, white votes are up everywhere, anywhere from 3-4% from 2012. Just to put that in perspective, the "Latino surge" in FL would have to be 40% HIGHER just to offset the white increase.
All these portend a very tight race in PA, VA, and possibly even WI. However, Team Trump pulled DT out of WI in favor of MN, where their internals show a very, very close race. As you know, he is up 12% in MN CD8, which no Republican has won.
If I had to guess, I'd say Trump wins MI, PA too close to call, we lose WI. Given the horrible polling record of VA, and the latest poll showing Trump +3 there, I have to think Trump also wins VA. The Nova districts are down (six of them) an average of 35% each, while southern/western VA (7 districts) were all up quite a bit in early voting. But VA doesn't do D/R ballots, so we have no way to really count by registration---which in large part is why polling there is so tough to confirm.
I think Trump has NM in a squeaker. CO too unpredictable to call. Rs lead early voting, but they led bigger in 2012 and lost. However, pot was on the ballot then, and isn't now. Moreover, most polls show "da yuts" are off by the same % as blacks, about -3%. Again, this is huge in places like CO. I can't call CO or NV now. There are indicators they could go either way.
NH was not on the "internals" list I saw, but four polls since then give Trump the lead there. I think it's likely in Trump's column, along with ME CD2.
Now, a few non-number/polling items. Slate has announced it will do "exit polling" reports all day on election day.
Of course, what this means is they will try to depress GOP turnout with false stories. REMEMBER 2004, when Drudge was running false exit polls and I told you at 4:00 pm after I did a key "poll flushing" at a battleground precinct that Bush won the election? THEY WILL LIE. You cannot get depressed about "exit lies."
A better barometer is obviously the election night calls. My prediction here is that they will DELIBERATELY delay any call for Trump until the last possible moment. In 2004, as Bill Sammon showed in his book "At Any Cost," the networks delayed all calls of Bush states up to FIVE TIMES as long as they called Gore states, when Bush had up to FIVE TIMES the margin of lead. In other words, if Bush was winning by 5 points in GA, they delayed it for an hour, while calling a Gore state with under 1% within 20 minutes.
THIS WILL HAPPEN. Probably the best indicator of a great Trump night is if, the minute after the polls close, they have NOT called VA, PA, and NH for Cankles. If these go 20 minutes with no call, Trump has likely won the election.
I remain confident, based on the USC Poll and PPD poll that Trump will win with about a 4-5% pop vote margin, will top 60m votes. I still think 300-320 EVs are entirely within reach.
If Cankles wins, we have all had the sad fortune of witnessing the last days of the greatest republic on earth.
I just LOVE your clue to a Trump win ... if the nets don’t call for Hillary! the second the polls close. They are so predictable in their bias.
Two things I want to come of this beyond Trump being elected. The demise of the ‘MSM,” and the cleaning up US citizenship. No more illegals being treated as citizens, and no more dual citizenship. Either renounce your other citizenship to become a US citizen, or be a guest here, but do NOT influence our elections.
When a rat is cornered it will do anything to survive. We need to be aware of this. Podesta and the enormous corporate cronyism that is well invested in a business as usual atmosphere with enormous amounts of money and contacts will do just that. I’m hoping Trump has a team that is not visible to all of us just as strong and just as determined to take this all down
They must be crushed. In any other country, they would actually be executed as enemies of the people.
Ain’t workin’.
If you haven’t already, check out Bill Mitchell on twitter at:
https://twitter.com/mitchellvii
You can look at his twitter feed even if you don’t have a twitter account. He’s been debunking the MSM polls all along & has some very interesting comments.
The transit strike in Philly, if it’s still on Tuesday, could depress inner city vote. They are negotiating, trying to end the strike tomorrow.
On Nevada, Bill says this:
The math is simple. CNN says Trump leads Indies by 54/27 in NV. Apply that to the EV and you get a 1000 vote Hillary lead - not 44,000.
They are IGNORING Independents which lean 54/27 Trump.
Your update gives me more hope. Just spoke to my son who has a lot of other young voter friends all over the country and they all feel the election is over and Hillary has won, whether they want it or not. A lot were Bernie supporters. Some will vote her, some Trump. They feel Florida will go Clinton and that the evening will be short. So depressing to hear that, but they are far more influenced by the media and have less years to draw election perspective from. He was a toddler when Billy Jeff was getting serviced in the Oval Office.
The risk our country hangs on, the dishonesty of the media. It is all so very upsetting. Damn right I am concerned. There is too much to lose. Who wants to be part of a dishonest, fake, corrupt nation??? MAGA or it ceases to exist!!
2004 was not even close.
Bush won 51% of the popular vote to Kerry’s 48%. Sounds close? Before Obama, the ONLY Democrats to EVER win more than 51% of the popular vote were LBJ (a year after Kennedy was assassinated), FDR (during the Great Depression and WWII) and Andrew Jackson (way back in 1828).
286-252 is my call right now. Trump wins OH, IA, FL, NC, MI, NH, ME2, and NV. Close but not quite in VA, MN, PA... fools gold in WI. Loses CO in a squeaker. If polls continue to hold or improve tomorrow, then I tip CO and PA to Trump making it 315-223. I still have hopes for MN and VA which makes it 338-200. Git er done!!!!
Now here is what it is supposed to look like during the day of the voting:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3490011/posts
Not bad!
And now spend a few minutes looking at this video and spread its message far and wide:
Bottom line: Get out there and VOTE TRUMP, and convince as many people as you can to VOTE TRUMP!
Yours is where I am too with my map. Praying. Trump can do this, but he has to win enough to beat fraud.
Therefore, the challenge will take many weeks before we know outcomes IMHO
That is what I have been thinking for some time now. And the full voice of the media will be SCREAMING for Trump to just concede, and stop the challenges.
They are also ignoring the fact that registered Democrats are crossing over.
You betcha!
(Never underestimate the power of p*ssed-off people in large groups.)
Pray for a 5-6%+ margin to overcome fraud.
60% chance of rain in Detroit Tuesday. Just sayin....
LS mentioned RI and your comment triggered a memory from a few months ago. A poll there had Clinton only +4. I haven’t seen any more recent polling, but I can’t help but wonder if RI will be a key indicator of the fabled Trump “monster vote” I’s and previous non-voters voting en mass for Trump.
If he takes that state or comes close then that would seem to indicate that PA, MI and other states would be breaking for Trump.
Thoughts?
If RI is not called right away, then that would be a very good sign. I don’t think he wins RI.
==========================
And now spend a few minutes looking at this video and spread its message far and wide:
You never hear anybody point to the ‘14 mid-terms, where huge amounts of dems crossed over due to ISIS, Ebola, o-care, etc and turned more statehouses red than since 1928. That’s dems voting straight-ticket R to accomplish that.
Since the midterms, things have only gotten worse for whites: immigration, BLM killing cops and burning down neighborhoods, ISIS worse, Obamacare worse, jobs worse.
The only one who called the ‘14 midterms was that Liz gal from the De Moines Register, the rest of the polls were off 5-6pts, and I haven’t heard from her this cycle. Everybody’s yapping about the election ‘structure’ and whether it maps 2012 or 1980, when really it maps 2014, with negligible black turnout.
Here in CT there are definitely some Sanders voters that plan on giving the “establishment” the middle finger and voting for Trump.
I also expect low black turnout in the cities.
There is no accurate polling (the latest IPSOS sampled only 350 people, had Hillary +6 and presumably had Democratic over-sampling) so there is no way to figure out what is really happening on the ground.
The D crooked governor will steal it at the last minute late at night if he is mobilized to do so.
However, the race is so quiet it is possible those plans are not in place.
Also, a tight race here in CT could sink two incumbent D congress-critters in the backwash.
fwiw my wife voted for Obama twice and is voting for Trump this time, so who knows.....
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