Posted on 11/05/2016 11:12:31 AM PDT by dp0622
http://www.ktvn.com/story/33617755/new-poll-shows-republican-surge-in-nevada
Just posting to counter the thread some troll punk put up about NV. I think it was pulled.
Trump is going to win and trolls are going to cry like the b.tches they are.
I work on data, not on what Trump is doing. I have no idea why he is going to Minnesota, when data would more strongly support doing the rounds in Michigan, or heck, even New Mexico. I dont think we can be reasonable in saying “Trump went somewhere! victory!”
I do agree that North Carolina is very strong for Trump. I do think he will win there. You are also right on Florida early voting, and if Trump wins Florida, I think he will win on Tuesday, but it is still a squeaker, especially as national polls have clinton up by just shy of 2 points there, at a time when her numbers tanked in states like New Hampshire
A very reasoned and thoughtful analysis.
I need to ask — does anyone here remember 2012? I don’t think it is necessary for posters that have posted media articles indicating Hillary leading in X or Y to be called “trolls.” We need to see all of it — even the biased that the leftist wishful thinking that is structured to push results to the left.
While our site is well known, it is not big and pervasive. Leftist articles posted here from bona fide media is useful to critique. It doesn’t drag down Donald.
Using some of the worst NV polls, we did simulations based on indies + some % of D crossovers and get narrow victories.
I work on the data that a few days ago (but it seems like an eternity) polls came out showing that the GOP could win in Minnesota’s Iron Range (including Duluth).
That is not due to the Congressional candidate, but to Trump. And other polls show a race of 1%: and I have had co-workers who I thought were libs, tell me laughingly of anti-Hillary ads they saw on TV.
No.
Care to quote this concern trolling signal boosting SQN? As Allahfundip blocked me long ago...
LOL as if we will stand for Dingy Harry stealing this state.
We can do this the easy way, or the hard way. The bitch is done
FWIW from 2012:
Obama won 52-46 (528,801 - 462,422)
D/R/I was 38/28/34
M/F was 47/53
Racial breakdwon:
White 64%
Hispanic 19%
Black 9%
Asian 5%
Other 4%
I would assume the Hispanic population has gone up. By how much I have no idea.
Best post of the thread by far. RATS can close the gap by superior turnout, but it isn’t enough to erase a 6 point lead.
I was a poll watcher on a college campus.
The out of state, long term (6 Week) Dem lawyer/watcher lamented that they thought they would get more dems out to legalize pot. I pointed out that NV already has medicinal so its really not a big deal.
The youth vote did not seem to be very charged up. IMHO.
Its going to be super close in Nevada.
SUUUUUPER CLOSE!
One thing.
The Independents increased their numbers in raw totals in Clark County more than either Dems or Repubs.
The newly registered voters tend to vote on election day and Independents in Clark County within their group vote in a larger percentage than either D or R.
No, the difference is you are assuming that those who hate Trump are “credible” and dismissing those who are not so quick to press the Pro Clinton propaganda as “baised.
This analyst in NV floated the theory in Sept that
Polling in NV finds it very hard to poll the Hispanic vote. There is no actual evidence to back up that assumption, but let it go.
Assumption 2. The Hispanic vote is going to go very heavily against Trump because of his supposed racists attitudes twoards Hispatnice.
Fact is Trump did very well in the Nevada primary with Hispanics. So the assumption that Hispanics are automatically voting Hillary, as this analysis assumed, does not match real data from recent elections.
So this analysis simply turned out any contrary data, looked for data that validated his assumptions and said “See I told you Trump was in trouble in NV”. The Hispanics areas all turned out and voted against Trump.
There no way to know until election day who those votes are for and his assumption, that these are sure Clinton votes is at odds with Trumps Hispanic support in NV.
SQN?
Nice catch. kudos.
We know he’s going to lose with hispanics. When their numbers go up, Hillary’s margin of victory goes up, guaranteed. I’m sure the amount of hispanics voting in the GOP primary was miniscule. Romney lost NV by 7 points, worse than many other states Trump’s trying to pick up. And Romney had the benefit of having the state’s big Mormon voting population on his side, who seem to be some of the major #nevertrumpers now.
NV’s lost. Trump needs to find his path elsewhere. He has a very real chance to get it elsewhere. But it won’t be through NV. He’s in 10 states this weekend. It should be less.
Post #8 was deleted for some reason. What was the gist?
The Revolution is ON!
Vote Trump!
MI [Detroit] is not tied to early voting nearly to the extreme that PA [Philly] is. The Amish game in MI is not nearly as good as the Amish game in PA. IF you want a shock state to flip, and just barely enough white Monster Vote to do it, MI is your election-night shocker...
If Ted Cruz or Rubio was on the ticket, we wouldn’t be talking about a close race in or losing in FL, OH, NC, UT, AZ, TX, CO, NV.
VA is normally easy for any Republican to win. Kaine was the X-factor this year that probably put it out of reach for any Republican.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.