Trump Surges In Poll

USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times "Daybreak" poll ^ | SEP 30, 2016 | ARMAND EMAMDJOMEH and DAVID LAUTER

[Fai Mao]

Would that turnout graphic indicate an R+1 turnout?

If so that is huge news

[dp0622]

rofl! in that neighborhood? that would help a lot!

[dp0622]

yes

[apillar]

I honestly believe that this crap Hillary and the media are shoveling 24/7 about some comment Trump made about that porn-star / beauty contestant is backfiring big time. I did an impromptu poll of my daughters female college friends yesterday (not all Trump supporters by any means, most were for Bernie in the primary) and every single one of them didn't care in the least about his “Miss Piggy” comment, some even found them funny, but all were offended that Hillary thought women were going to come running to her because of it, as one girl said, “I care about the issues, Hillary isn't running on what she stands for but that Trump said something bad. I'm suppose to vote for her just because Trump called someone Miss Piggy? What a dope!”

[dp0622]

that’s funny. Complain about both. In manhattan i was in a similar situation when bush II was pres.

But they liked whomever was running against him, as long as they were breathing :)

[apillar]

I just noticed that Realclearpolitics.com shortchanged Trump, they have him at +5 today up 1 from yesterday, but (Trump 47.3 Clinton 41.7) is +5.6 which should be rounded up to 6 not down to 5. Maybe I’m nitpicking, buy I want every advantage we can get....

[Ken H]

I worked the graveyard shift for years. Very few suits.

[aces]

yea, Jesus ok, Trump set us free?...good start though

[aces]

yea, Jesus ok, Trump set us free?...good start though

[spokeshave]

Hi dp0622....you have a FReepMail.....regards.

[cgbg]

The scale in this chart is so bizarre—it is straight out of that old classic: “How to lie with statistics”.

Small moves are small moves—sticking them on a big graph is not helpful.

[Ingtar]

I truly think he needs to be 12 ahead in the polls and 17 ahead in reality to overcome the cheating.

[Ken H]

you have to figure, monday was too late to poll after debates, so this includes Tues, Wed and Thurs.

These numbers are putting lie to CNN and a few others who said it was a loss for Trump.

[Ciaphas Cain]

I am more than a passing acquaintance with a well known celebrity (that is all anyone is going to get from me). This person is likable enough but has drunk the anti-Trump Koop-Aid and is spewing hate about him constantly. It's like this person is addicted to hate for Trump.

I like this person. But I'm looking forward to seeing his/her/its head explode on election night when Hillary goes down. Along with their many celebrity friends.

[Ciaphas Cain]

Kool-Aid I mean. Darn smartphone buttons!!

[combat_boots]

:)

[Cboldt]

-- Would that turnout graphic indicate an R+1 turnout? --

No. It is a measure of enthusiasm only, for people voting for each candidate. The poll contains no information relating to party affiliation.

Supposedly, in reality, the group of voters that is neither D nor R is about a third, so the below produces a nonsense statistic. Garbage in, garbage out.

If all the Trump voters are GOP, and all the Crooked voters are DEM, just use the "final outcome" graph as a proxy for party turnout. That result is 47.3-41.7 in Trump favor, giving R+6 of the entire 7 day sample.

"N" for the past 7 day sample is 2560. 47.3% of those to Trump (1211), and 41.7% to Crooked (1068). That is 2279 total, by the way, leaving 281 or 11% either not voting, or voting for somebody else.

[BlueStateRightist]

Polls that underestimate Trump’s strength work in our favor. The Crook supporters get complacent and overconfident, and thus their turnout likely will suppressed. From this perspective, I welcome the phony polls showing her having strength.

[kanawa]

I’ve learned to never tell the dispatcher how to do their job.
Pays to keep in their good graces.

[Baldwin77]

What is the MOE in this poll? I could not find it at the source.