Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

The USC Dornsife / LA Times [Poll: Trump: 46.3 Hitlery: 42.2 Yuk!]
cesrusc.org ^ | 9/21/16

Posted on 09/21/2016 7:44:24 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper

This chart tracks our best estimate, over time, of how America plans to vote in November

The final blue and red figures on the right side of the chart represent our most recent estimates of Hillary Clinton's vote (blue squares) and Donald Trump's (red diamonds). These estimates represent weighted averages of all responses in the prior week. The gray band is a "95-percent confidence interval". Figures lying outside the gray band mean that we are at least 95% confident that the candidate with the highest percentage will win the popular vote.

Update: As of Monday September 19th, the Daybreak Poll’s charts will reflect a change in the way we compute the "area of uncertainty" represented by the gray band in each chart. This change means that candidate votes that are about 5 or 6 percentage points apart will be shown to be statistically significant (depending on sample size and how much variation there is in the voting). Our previous calculations required an interval of +/5.5 percentage points for significance in our election forecast, which we have determined was too conservative. We have adjusted the interval in the charts, and in the data provided in the poll’s csv files accordingly.

(Excerpt) Read more at cesrusc.org ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016; 2016polls; tds; vote
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-50 next last
To: woweeitsme

Trump is getting overconfident.


21 posted on 09/21/2016 8:04:53 AM PDT by BlueCat
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: vette6387
Not to worry! Just wait until next Tuesday when the sheeple start retrenching after Hitlary’ disasterous debate performance.

I wouldn't assume that she has a bad debate performance. I think they are pinning their hopes on it. If she'll be prepared for anything, she'll be prepared for this. Whatever cocktail they need to dope her up with will keep her stable for the most part. She will be able to come off as informed even though she'll still be haughty. Trump can't assume he'll win easily.
22 posted on 09/21/2016 8:05:36 AM PDT by needmorePaine
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: tatown

I still can’t wrap my head around the fact that she isn’t down by double digits. She is easily the worst candidate in modern history.


For the taking class, all that matters is who will take from others and give to you.


23 posted on 09/21/2016 8:06:03 AM PDT by freedomlover
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: freedomlover

Trump supporters should run ads showing the Hillary collapse into unconsciousness & throwing her body into the van like a slab of meat.


24 posted on 09/21/2016 8:08:15 AM PDT by Trumpisourlastchance
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: woweeitsme
I can’t figure out how she’s GAINING ground. There is nothing remotely likable about her.

Remember about 40-45% of our population is dumber than dirt.

25 posted on 09/21/2016 8:10:08 AM PDT by Hyman Roth
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: SoFloFreeper

Isn’t this an online poll?


26 posted on 09/21/2016 8:16:38 AM PDT by MNDude (God is not a Republican, but Satan is certainly a Democrat.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoFloFreeper

Disappointing, but not unexpected. No poll is going to show Trump running away with the election before October.


27 posted on 09/21/2016 8:17:05 AM PDT by CatOwner
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: vette6387

It will be declared a total debate victory for Mrs. Bill. The American people will think “she won”.


28 posted on 09/21/2016 8:17:34 AM PDT by Theodore R. (Trump-Pence, 2016)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: SoFloFreeper

I warned everyone this was coming. I said last Friday that this momentum HAD to be checked, and they would begin to jigger the polls to show a Cankles lead.

Now, I DO NOT think this poll is being manipulated. For whatever reason, it’s clear in the last few days Trump has turned down a tad. It’s his first drop (beginning on 9/18)in two weeks. Some of that is normal. He is still outside margin of error for winning this one, still on the good side of 45%.


29 posted on 09/21/2016 8:18:11 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoFloFreeper

I would like to see the results of a 4 way poll from the LA Times, it would probably add a point to Trump.


30 posted on 09/21/2016 8:20:09 AM PDT by cowboyusa
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: tatown

The fact is, she may well be. We have many polls where she is at 39%, state and national. They don’t correspondingly show Trump up that much because of the “reluctant Trump” people (”reluctant” to publicly name him) and/or undecideds who will break his way in very large numbers.

So, it could in fact end up being about a double digit lead for Trump.


31 posted on 09/21/2016 8:20:09 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: BlueCat

“Trump is getting overconfident.” BINGO we have a winner for the dumbest comment of the day. How is doing two rallies a day “over confident?” PLEEEEEEEZE. This is a plus 4 and was plus 7.6 but Trump is winning states Mittens couldn’t smell. Trump is above 30 with Hispanics at 20 with Blacks, she dropped 19 points with millenniums in 10 days and Reuters has absolutely amazingly already called Vermont - yes Vermont (look it up) for Trump. They didn’t have to poll they said because Hillary is doing so poorly with White people and Vermont is 94% White which they obviously think is so White Trump can overcome the Vermont liberal bent.


32 posted on 09/21/2016 8:24:44 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: LS

Hope so!


33 posted on 09/21/2016 8:26:11 AM PDT by tatown
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: NYC-RepublicanCT

Aren’t we saying the same thing? The 2 days after 9/11 are rolling off, and we’re seeing it where it probable stands, at Trump +4?
++++
Yes. We are seeing your roll off.

But note that the Hillary recovery looks to be softer than the big Trump gains from a week ago. You need to compare the slopes of the lines in the plot to see that.

If you and I are right there should be at least a 2-3 point Trump advantage going in to the Monday debate.


34 posted on 09/21/2016 8:29:38 AM PDT by InterceptPoint (Ted, you should have endorsed. Big mistake.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: InterceptPoint

Agreed


35 posted on 09/21/2016 8:37:08 AM PDT by NYC-RepublicanCT (Trump vs Media/Dems/Obamas/NeverTrumpers. Still winning!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]

To: SoFloFreeper

Sadly any talk of a Trump blow out is just that, talk.

The reality we are facing is any Republican candidate for POTUS will always face a monumental task just to get 270 EV’s . We have an electorate where at least 48% of the people will vote for the Democrat no matter how sick, corrupt of dishonest he/she is.

To thes people, Hillary having major health issues will not change their vote/ They see it like this: If Hillary is sick and dies in office, no big deal, Democrat Tim Kaine will be POTUS. Thats all that matters to them, that a Democrat is POTUS.

Not saying Trump can’t win. Just saying if he does, it will be a very narrow margin. He may even lose the popular vote by narrowly make it to 270 EV’s. We will find out soon enough.


36 posted on 09/21/2016 8:45:27 AM PDT by Angels27
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: BlueCat

Folks, I read FreeRepublic multiple times each day :), but I rarely comment on things...couple of points to keep in mind

- Trump is not getting over confident, he and his surrogates are triangulating for the kill over the next few weeks
- The one and only reason for the change is that the 2 huge uptick days for Trump and 2 huge down tick days for Clinton have rolled off, so there’s going to be some tightening...

Stay focused and frosty...

I’ve been with Trump since early on in his campaign because he was bringing the most important issues to the conversation that no one else would...I have watched him grow tremendously in a short amount of time and hope that we will see that culminate in his disposition and performance this coming Monday night at the debate...I say it’s a coin flip that she shows up, but in reality, she has to at this point...she’s in a corner, so I would be shocked if the debate didn’t happen...but, then again, nothing should shock us when it comes to the evil we’re fighting on a daily basis

TG


37 posted on 09/21/2016 8:45:27 AM PDT by Tobias Grimsley
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: tatown

As disliked as Clinton is, I factor in that Trump is also disliked.

Most of my family and associates are Republicans and I only know one person among them who is enthusiastic about Trump. Most of them say they’ll vote for Trump primarily because he’s not Clinton. A few are considering writing in someone or not voting for either.

Hopefully your experiences are different, but I’m just calling it as I see it from my of the woods (FYI a precinct who voted 67% for Romney).


38 posted on 09/21/2016 8:48:01 AM PDT by randita
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: BlueCat

“Trump is getting overconfident”

Naw. Trump remains CONFIDENT. A winner’s aura eminates from him every public appearance. He’s doing fine. These polls are run by progressives & should never be taken too seriously as a result. Trump is going to be our next president!

Vote Trump 2016


39 posted on 09/21/2016 8:51:45 AM PDT by TheStickman (Trump will be the 1st Pro America president since Reagan)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: SoFloFreeper
New North Carolina poll by PPP has Trump up +2% in a 3-way race 45%-43%-6%.

Civitas had it tied at 42% on 9/11-9/12. Elon had it Trump +1% at 44%-43% on 9/12-9/16.

North Carolina seems to be slowly drifting towards Trump.

-PJ

40 posted on 09/21/2016 8:54:24 AM PDT by Political Junkie Too (If you are the Posterity of We the People, then you are a Natural Born Citizen.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-50 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson