In two days, Trump down 1.5 and Hitlery up 1.1
The trend is not our friend.
Posted on 09/21/2016 7:44:24 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
This chart tracks our best estimate, over time, of how America plans to vote in November
The final blue and red figures on the right side of the chart represent our most recent estimates of Hillary Clinton's vote (blue squares) and Donald Trump's (red diamonds). These estimates represent weighted averages of all responses in the prior week. The gray band is a "95-percent confidence interval". Figures lying outside the gray band mean that we are at least 95% confident that the candidate with the highest percentage will win the popular vote.
Update: As of Monday September 19th, the Daybreak Poll’s charts will reflect a change in the way we compute the "area of uncertainty" represented by the gray band in each chart. This change means that candidate votes that are about 5 or 6 percentage points apart will be shown to be statistically significant (depending on sample size and how much variation there is in the voting). Our previous calculations required an interval of +/5.5 percentage points for significance in our election forecast, which we have determined was too conservative. We have adjusted the interval in the charts, and in the data provided in the poll’s csv files accordingly.
(Excerpt) Read more at cesrusc.org ...
In two days, Trump down 1.5 and Hitlery up 1.1
The trend is not our friend.
The American people must have fallen for the pneumonia diagnosis.
Not to worry! Just wait until next Tuesday when the sheeple start retrenching after Hitlary’ disasterous debate performance.
Could just be statistical noise... Trump had 2 fantastic days on the back end of the Hillary 9/11 disaster... Could just be those extraordinary days rolling off... Look for this to stabilize the next day or two, them resume the upward trajectory...
I can’t figure out how she’s GAINING ground. There is nothing remotely likable about her.
Terror attacks should move things back to wider the next several days.
LOL, about 5 hours late to the party with this.
I absolutely knew Trump wouldn’t stay at a 7 point lead or increase much more.
Don’t know whether because they would adjust methodology or people can’t help themselves and switch back and forth but there was no way the media would let Trump stay at that lead much less increase it.
One day is noise, two days is a tendency, three days is a trend. I will hold judgment antil tomorrow.
I do note a strong correlation between the results of the poll and both how early it is posted and whether or not it goes into breaking.
It's okay. This is the week-old uptick in African American share rolling off. This will settle in at a place that favors Trump, compared with the "dead heat" before 9/11.
Day to day moves in this poll are highly manipulable. The suvey is NOT exactly the same people over time. People drop out, people drop in. Quite a few!
I still can’t wrap my head around the fact that she isn’t down by double digits. She is easily the worst candidate in modern history.
This election would not be shown to be at one spot over the next what is it now 48 days?
Just wasn’t going to happen. I’m surprised they let Trump show with a seven point lead in the first place.
4 points may be about how it ends. I’ll take it. I’m thinking it will be more of a thumping than that though.
definitely.
$145 million of ads, plus constant 24x7 media bias can prop up a ham sandwich.
There are people who will always vote Democrat no matter how bad the candidate. There are people that also want their free stuff.
This was to be expected. Did anyone expect him to expand the lead to double digits?
I wish. But that is not what is going on here.
Count the days from 9/11 when Trump started up in this poll in reaction to the Great Hillary Collapse Caught on Video. This is a 1/7 of about 3000 participants being repeatedly polled once a week. So Day 8 after 9/11 is a polling of roughly the same group that bumped Trump up on 9/11.
We are now in the second day of that cycle and what you see is the 9/11 bump being reversed at about the same rate that it went up. I expect this to continue until we are down to a small Trump margin: The residual and lasting effect of the 9/11 Collapse.
But Monday's Debate will change all of this. One way or another. Interesting times. We need Our Donald to hit a Home Run or two or three in that first debate.
Statistical noise, there will always be fluctuations. Daily tracking poll charts are never linear.
Aren’t we saying the same thing? The 2 days after 9/11 are rolling off, and we’re seeing it where it probable stands, at Trump +4?
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