Posted on 09/21/2016 7:44:24 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
This chart tracks our best estimate, over time, of how America plans to vote in November
The final blue and red figures on the right side of the chart represent our most recent estimates of Hillary Clinton's vote (blue squares) and Donald Trump's (red diamonds). These estimates represent weighted averages of all responses in the prior week. The gray band is a "95-percent confidence interval". Figures lying outside the gray band mean that we are at least 95% confident that the candidate with the highest percentage will win the popular vote.
Update: As of Monday September 19th, the Daybreak Poll’s charts will reflect a change in the way we compute the "area of uncertainty" represented by the gray band in each chart. This change means that candidate votes that are about 5 or 6 percentage points apart will be shown to be statistically significant (depending on sample size and how much variation there is in the voting). Our previous calculations required an interval of +/5.5 percentage points for significance in our election forecast, which we have determined was too conservative. We have adjusted the interval in the charts, and in the data provided in the poll’s csv files accordingly.
(Excerpt) Read more at cesrusc.org ...
Trump is getting overconfident.
I still can’t wrap my head around the fact that she isn’t down by double digits. She is easily the worst candidate in modern history.
Trump supporters should run ads showing the Hillary collapse into unconsciousness & throwing her body into the van like a slab of meat.
Remember about 40-45% of our population is dumber than dirt.
Isn’t this an online poll?
Disappointing, but not unexpected. No poll is going to show Trump running away with the election before October.
It will be declared a total debate victory for Mrs. Bill. The American people will think “she won”.
I warned everyone this was coming. I said last Friday that this momentum HAD to be checked, and they would begin to jigger the polls to show a Cankles lead.
Now, I DO NOT think this poll is being manipulated. For whatever reason, it’s clear in the last few days Trump has turned down a tad. It’s his first drop (beginning on 9/18)in two weeks. Some of that is normal. He is still outside margin of error for winning this one, still on the good side of 45%.
I would like to see the results of a 4 way poll from the LA Times, it would probably add a point to Trump.
The fact is, she may well be. We have many polls where she is at 39%, state and national. They don’t correspondingly show Trump up that much because of the “reluctant Trump” people (”reluctant” to publicly name him) and/or undecideds who will break his way in very large numbers.
So, it could in fact end up being about a double digit lead for Trump.
“Trump is getting overconfident.” BINGO we have a winner for the dumbest comment of the day. How is doing two rallies a day “over confident?” PLEEEEEEEZE. This is a plus 4 and was plus 7.6 but Trump is winning states Mittens couldn’t smell. Trump is above 30 with Hispanics at 20 with Blacks, she dropped 19 points with millenniums in 10 days and Reuters has absolutely amazingly already called Vermont - yes Vermont (look it up) for Trump. They didn’t have to poll they said because Hillary is doing so poorly with White people and Vermont is 94% White which they obviously think is so White Trump can overcome the Vermont liberal bent.
Hope so!
Aren’t we saying the same thing? The 2 days after 9/11 are rolling off, and we’re seeing it where it probable stands, at Trump +4?
++++
Yes. We are seeing your roll off.
But note that the Hillary recovery looks to be softer than the big Trump gains from a week ago. You need to compare the slopes of the lines in the plot to see that.
If you and I are right there should be at least a 2-3 point Trump advantage going in to the Monday debate.
Agreed
Sadly any talk of a Trump blow out is just that, talk.
The reality we are facing is any Republican candidate for POTUS will always face a monumental task just to get 270 EV’s . We have an electorate where at least 48% of the people will vote for the Democrat no matter how sick, corrupt of dishonest he/she is.
To thes people, Hillary having major health issues will not change their vote/ They see it like this: If Hillary is sick and dies in office, no big deal, Democrat Tim Kaine will be POTUS. Thats all that matters to them, that a Democrat is POTUS.
Not saying Trump can’t win. Just saying if he does, it will be a very narrow margin. He may even lose the popular vote by narrowly make it to 270 EV’s. We will find out soon enough.
Folks, I read FreeRepublic multiple times each day :), but I rarely comment on things...couple of points to keep in mind
- Trump is not getting over confident, he and his surrogates are triangulating for the kill over the next few weeks
- The one and only reason for the change is that the 2 huge uptick days for Trump and 2 huge down tick days for Clinton have rolled off, so there’s going to be some tightening...
Stay focused and frosty...
I’ve been with Trump since early on in his campaign because he was bringing the most important issues to the conversation that no one else would...I have watched him grow tremendously in a short amount of time and hope that we will see that culminate in his disposition and performance this coming Monday night at the debate...I say it’s a coin flip that she shows up, but in reality, she has to at this point...she’s in a corner, so I would be shocked if the debate didn’t happen...but, then again, nothing should shock us when it comes to the evil we’re fighting on a daily basis
TG
As disliked as Clinton is, I factor in that Trump is also disliked.
Most of my family and associates are Republicans and I only know one person among them who is enthusiastic about Trump. Most of them say they’ll vote for Trump primarily because he’s not Clinton. A few are considering writing in someone or not voting for either.
Hopefully your experiences are different, but I’m just calling it as I see it from my of the woods (FYI a precinct who voted 67% for Romney).
“Trump is getting overconfident”
Naw. Trump remains CONFIDENT. A winner’s aura eminates from him every public appearance. He’s doing fine. These polls are run by progressives & should never be taken too seriously as a result. Trump is going to be our next president!
Vote Trump 2016
Civitas had it tied at 42% on 9/11-9/12. Elon had it Trump +1% at 44%-43% on 9/12-9/16.
North Carolina seems to be slowly drifting towards Trump.
-PJ
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.