Posted on 08/13/2016 1:37:35 PM PDT by Kaslin
Paul Ryan, Kelly Ayotte, and John McCain got what they wanted. At the expense of their party, they bludgeoned Donald Trump into supporting their RINO candidacies over their superior conservative challengers. Perrinnial Leftist lapdog, anti-gun activist Susan Collins (whose Collins/Snowe "Hamlet routine" in 2009 helped pass ObamaCare), also got a "doggie treat" from the press for her betrayal.
But, for other RINO's tempted to backstab the man who could be president, they may want to tattoo this talking point on their palms and read it whenever the Leftist press (including Fox) asks them anything about Donald Trump.
The talking point is this: "I have no obligation to denounce my allies, just because you "order" me to do so. And this is particularly true so long as you continue to excuse the vile, loathsome, and dangerous behavior of Hillary Clinton."
The fact is, there's a universe of things I find disgusting, starting out with each morning's edition of the New York Times. And while I am almost always tempted to write a letter denouncing their contemptible hypocrisy, I never do.
Because you choose your fights -- and your denunciations. And you probably should choose to fight your enemies, rather than your friends.
And whether the RINO's understand it or not, the loss of the White House this year will probably determine the course which this nation will take for the remainder of our lifetimes.
And everyone understands that but them.
These are the facts: Donald Trump will win the presidential election on November 8, 2016.
Unless the Republican base throws the race.
Which they're more than capable of doing, at the behest of a "puppet press" which wants to utterly destroy them.
THE "TODD AKIN PLAYBOOK"
Make no mistake about it: The press is running the same "playbook" they used to defeat Missouri GOP Senate candidate Todd Akin -- and to keep the Senate in Democrat hands that year.
But the "Todd Akin playbook" relies, for its success, on the Republican base buying into it. Without that, it fails.
What is the "Todd Akin playbook"? It works like this: The Left takes a small misstep by a Republican candidate and trumpets it as though it was the most execrable error in the history of man. The quote is initially taken out of context, but, after the first day, it is no longer even quoted, and is merely characterized as "racist, bigoted, anti-woman, fascist," etc.
Coupled with phony polls to "show" the race is hopeless, the "Todd Akin playbook" only works if the press can convince Republicans to decimate their own candidate.
In the end, the race almost always turns out to have been imminently doable, but we find that out only after Republicans have abandoned it.
What sort of "missteps" are we talking about?
Two weeks ago, Democrats and the press were attacking the mother of a son killed at Benghazi in these terms: "cynical exploitation," "an early dip into the gutter," "so offensive it was hard to comprehend," "the weaponization of grief," "deranged." One Democrat said he wanted to "beat [the mother of the dead son] to death."
Now, these same hypocrites are working to destroy Donald Trump on the basis of mild comments about the varieties of sacrifice.
Ditto, Trump's comments Tuesday about the Second Amendment -- and Hillary's assumption that all 100,000,000 gun owners are killers, criminals, and assassins and that that's what Trump meant.
Ditto, a president who excoriated the Supreme Court to its face, and is suddenly strangely protective of Gonzalo Curiel, the biased, anti-Trump judge he appointed.
In each of these cases, our most ruthless enemies demand that Republicans throw the election, just as the usual suspects (John McCain, Kelly Ayotte, Lindsey Graham) obediently jumped up and barked, in the hopes that liberals would throw them a "doggie treat."
Why would we do that?
REASONS WHY ELECTION PROSPECTS LOOK GOOD
First, in dealing with national "head-on-head" polls, you have to subtract at least four points from Clinton's totals in order to find out where the race really is.
This is because Clinton will get 3-to-4 million (or more) excess votes in California, New York, and Illinois which will do her absolutely no good.
In 2012, Barack Obama won the popular vote by almost 5-million votes -- nearly 4% of the votes cast for Obama or Romney. And, yet, a switch of under 214,800 votes in Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida, and Virginia would have put Romney in White House. Thus a razor-thin 0.2% of voters determined the outcome of a race Obama won by nearly 5,000,000 popular votes. It was a virtual "tie race," even though Obama won it by 4% of the popular vote.
The disparity arises from this reality: In 2012, Obama won California by over 3,000,000 votes. He could have lost 1.5 million votes in that state, and it would have made no difference in his electoral college votes. Similarly, Obama won New York by almost 2,000,000 votes. He could have lost nearly 1,000,000 of those, and it would have made no difference. In Illinois, Obama won by over 875,000 votes -- a surplus of over 430,000 useless votes.
Similarly, Gore beat Bush by over 500,000 votes in 2000. But he lost the electoral college 271-268. And the reason is that, even back then, Gore won California by over 600,000 unneeded votes and he won New York by over 800,000 unneeded votes (half his 1,707,395 margin of victory). Together these "wasted votes" from these two states alone constituted about 1.5% of the total popular vote.
And as California becomes bluer, with the recent registration of 1.5-million Democratic Hispanics, the trend is much more dramatic even than in 2012. In fact, to account for the electoral college, in national head-on-head polls, you would have to subtract at least 4% from Clinton's total in order to determine where the race really stands.
And this is assuming polls which rely on 2008 and 2012 demographic models are remotely accurate, which they are not. It's also assuming that polls (like Monmouth) which show 9% more Democrats than Republican (although the numbers are about equal) are not deliberately slanted, which is certainly also not true.
In 1996, when Pat Buchanan won the New Hampshire primary (and I was his chairman), the same unreliable polls (WMUR) which are now being bandied about showed him in single digits, until immediately before the election.
Similarly, during the Virginia McAuliffe/Cuccinelli gubernatorial race, the same polls which now show Trump losing that state (e.g., Reuters, Washington Post, etc.) showed Cuccinelli losing by up to 17 points. Cuccinelli lost that race in a squeaker -- after Republicans largely gave up on him.
Second, in order to be successful, all Trump has to do is win (1) 24 traditionally "red" states, plus (2) Florida, with a 1-point spread, (3) Ohio, with a 4-point spread, and (4) (A) Pennsylvania, (B) Virginia and New Hampshire, (C) Virginia and Iowa, etc.
This week -- the week of Clinton's post-convention apogee -- Trump is within the margin-of-error (or better) in all of these states except Pennsylvania (or its substitutes). And these polls will inevitably look better for Trump as ISIS attacks and Wikileaks continue to eat into Clinton's narrative.
And, in the three swing states, Clinton has four system problems: guns, coal, Cuba, and trade.
Third, Clinton has spent enormous amounts of ad money early in the election, even though the general thinking is that the effects of this spending is transitory.
The exception was 2012, when June spending was used to "define" a relatively unknown Romney. But neither Clinton nor Trump has been a "blank slate" for decades.
SUMMARY
When a front-page "news" article in the New York Times argues that the Times should abandon its policy of news objectivity (!!!) because of the importance of this election, it tells you something about the rest of the "puppet press's" "news" coverage. And the most important lie the press can make is the lie that "it's hopeless." They have run this playbook before with Netanyahu, Cameron, and Brexit, however, and phony polls are not self-executing. They work only if the victims "buy into" their narrative.
Why should we do that?
Riggers? I'm sure you mean "rigor." As in "rigorous."
Yes, turnout. Hammond mentioned Cuccinelli. Cuccinelli lost by about 40,000. 4 years earlier McDonell got 80,000 more votes than Cuccinelli. The D vote was about the same.
Cuccinelli lost because he did not have a good GOTV. There is no way it can be blamed on anything else.
The Trump campaign should learn from others mistakes. Trump has the enthusiasm Clinton lacks. But Clinton as dedicated soldiers motivated by their government check. Trump needs to translate his rah-rah spectators into players in the game. That is how he wins.
This might backfire on Dems. If they are overconfident, many may not show up. We know the Republicans will be there.
It’s typical poll manipulation to get the wishy washy squishy middle to stay home or just fall in line with the ‘winner.
Cuccinelli lost because...............
...............the Va GOP undermined him in every conceivable way.
The same exact methodology that the MSM polls use, I pulled it out of my butt, just like them
But I see the polls skewed like they were during the primaries and that is what I was going off of.
The polls are anything but accurate
He’s not, but we WILL win. Putting NY and NJ in the win column is patently absurd.
But i hope it is close enough that she will have to spend money there.
OH, FL, PA, NV, Virginia, those i can see happening.
Instead of blathering ridiculous statement, one would do better to donate to trump and/or donate time to trump and/or make sure elderly have absentee ballots if they can’t get to the booth.
Threads like this are kinda worthless.
DOING something isn’t.
Thank you Mr. Hammond for a fine analysis. I can only add that two things. The playbook of which you speak is confounded by Donald Trump himself. He seems to gain where all the pundits predict losing. Second, the low decibel growing of the electorate is not heard by the tone-deaf idiots we call the Ruling Class. It is apparent that the number of voters coming out for Trump will swamp the vote...and the pundit canoes.
how many of these states, in addition to California, have been seeded in the last 6 years with ‘resettled immigrants’ ?
**Clinton Can’t Win in November**
I agree, mostly because of her health and her left leaning ideas.
People just don’t want her.
Every GOP’er whoever runs must always understand they have no friends in the press. None! Not even if he/she was your best pal from high school. Any activity, “friendly favor” no matter how innocuous will be blown out of proportion to not just take you down but to ruin you. If a GOP’er can't accept that and act accordingly then they have no business running.
“riggers”
rigors
.... As mentioned before .... This election will be all about turnout. Not to mention the amount of so called "Silent Voters" .... The people who will vote for Trump but would not dare tell friends and family for fear of reprisal or violence. Apparently there are quite a few that fit into this new demographic.
NJ and NY in the win column is what we need to think about here
Winners think big, like Trump
It is very possible
NJ and NY will depend on democrat turnout which will be dismal at best this election season. No one is thrilled over Hillary, even her own party thinks she is a criminal.
Think big, win big
Why do we limit ourselves to the same stupid states each election season? Because our friends at the MSMs tell us so?
Doesn’t matter, Trump is creating his own map
whatever. I’m happy for your optimism.
Optimism ALONG with donations to FR and Trump go a lot further.
That is how this election should playout.
The 10 must be HI, CA, WA, OR, IL, NY, MA, DE, MD, and RI.
But that doesn’t leave room for MN, VT, NM, and WI.
” It’ll be the rigors of campaigning that’ll take her down.” You are right,thanks.
Per the news today, she is taking this weekend off.
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