Skip to comments.
"Jobs Data Nowhere As Strong As Headline" - Analysts Throw Up On Today's Seasonal Adjustment
zero hedge
| 8/5/16
| Tyler Durden
Posted on 08/05/2016 10:27:38 AM PDT by Nachum
One week ago, the BEA admitted that it had "found a problem" when it comes to calculating GDP numbers. Specifically it blamed "residual seasonality" adjustments for giving historical GDP numbers a persistent optimistic bias. This came in the aftermath of last week's shocking Q2 GDP report which printed at 1.2%, less than half of Wall Street's consensus.
Today, seasonality made another appearance, this time however in the much anticipated July jobs number, which unlike the woeful Q2 GDP number, was the opposite, coming in far higher than expected. In fact it was higher than the top Wall Street estimate.
TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: jobs
Prosperity is just after the election
1
posted on
08/05/2016 10:27:38 AM PDT
by
Nachum
To: Nachum
2
posted on
08/05/2016 10:30:06 AM PDT
by
MuttTheHoople
(Yes, Liberals, I question your patriotism)
To: Nachum
Let me guess, now they have been lying for 7 years they are gonna fix it by January. Just a coincidence.
3
posted on
08/05/2016 10:31:12 AM PDT
by
wastoute
(Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
To: Nachum
Don’t believe the media...thump..don’t believe the media..thump..don’t believe the media..
4
posted on
08/05/2016 10:34:50 AM PDT
by
OttawaFreeper
("If I had to go to war again, I'd bring lacrosse players" Conn Smythe)
To: Nachum
That’s what I am counting on, looking to buy a home about March or April after a bubble pop in Nov or Dec. Should be down around 30-40% here, good time to buy.
5
posted on
08/05/2016 10:38:17 AM PDT
by
Jolla
To: Nachum
6
posted on
08/05/2016 10:42:58 AM PDT
by
ecomcon
To: Nachum
Don't like diagrams without proper scales on both axes, but in this case the important thing is to compare the adjustment for June/July 2016 with the nine previous years.
As can be seen this is the largest positive seasonal adjustment made over the last 10 year period. Go figure.
7
posted on
08/05/2016 10:46:22 AM PDT
by
ScaniaBoy
(Part of the Right Wing Research & Attack Machine)
To: Nachum
"Jobs Data Nowhere As Strong As Headline" - Analysts Throw Up On Today's Seasonal Adjustment No headlines about the 94+ MILLION that 0bama has forced out of the workforce.
I've long since quit giving ANY credence whatsoever to statistics released by the 0bame regime. I'd guess you'll see a steady upward trend in the numbers until the election is an effort to help Madam Benghazi.
8
posted on
08/05/2016 10:47:28 AM PDT
by
The Sons of Liberty
("We re going to raise taxes on the Middle Class!" - HRC Aug 3, 2016)
To: ScaniaBoy
Sorry, 10 previous years.
9
posted on
08/05/2016 10:47:34 AM PDT
by
ScaniaBoy
(Part of the Right Wing Research & Attack Machine)
To: Nachum
Presidents that screw with numbers need their heads to be chopped off
10
posted on
08/05/2016 10:48:59 AM PDT
by
bert
((K.E.; N.P.; GOPc;WASP ....Opabinia can teach us a lot)
To: The Sons of Liberty
11
posted on
08/05/2016 10:49:31 AM PDT
by
Nachum
(ISIS is alive... and Chris Stevens is dead)
To: The Sons of Liberty
Tyler Durden notes a lsight problem with that though. If the FED takes these and other “adjusted” figures at face value, it is going to be very difficult not to raise the interest rate in September. And that is something that could throw a big spanner into the real economy. If the FED does not want to do that the figures will have to be “fisked” - publicly.
12
posted on
08/05/2016 10:51:03 AM PDT
by
ScaniaBoy
(Part of the Right Wing Research & Attack Machine)
To: Nachum
Someone on Fox News said the other day, if the economy is strong (or perceived thus), the incumbent party wins.
it’s all about the schmenjamins......
NoO3
KYPD
13
posted on
08/05/2016 10:51:31 AM PDT
by
petro45acp
(" It IS About Islam: exposing the truth about ISIS, Al Qaeda, Iran, and the caliphate" by Glenn Beck)
To: ScaniaBoy
Yellen has already demonstrated some propensity for taking actions that provide political benefits. It would not be too far fetched for her to put off any rate hikes in an effort to help her fellow “woman” and justify it as “the economy is still soft”.
14
posted on
08/05/2016 10:55:01 AM PDT
by
The Sons of Liberty
("We re going to raise taxes on the Middle Class!" - HRC Aug 3, 2016)
To: Nachum
Drudge’s idiot headline was really swell. The guy can be Clueless...
15
posted on
08/05/2016 10:56:30 AM PDT
by
heights
To: The Sons of Liberty
Yes, but it will be more and more difficult for her to claim the economy is soft the more false positive figures the adminsitration is producing.
16
posted on
08/05/2016 11:04:45 AM PDT
by
ScaniaBoy
(Part of the Right Wing Research & Attack Machine)
To: Nachum
17
posted on
08/05/2016 1:42:12 PM PDT
by
tbw2
To: Nachum
Today, seasonality made another appearance, this time however in the much anticipated July jobs number, which unlike the woeful Q2 GDP number, was the opposite, coming in far higher than expected. Not that I believe this administration's numbers anyway, but I just looked at the BLS non-adjusted and seasonally adjusted numbers. I don't see anything that makes this point.
18
posted on
08/05/2016 3:37:48 PM PDT
by
TwelveOfTwenty
(See my home page for some of my answers to the left's talking points.)
Disclaimer:
Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual
posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its
management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the
exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson