Posted on 07/25/2016 2:47:47 PM PDT by LS
PPP's new Ohio poll finds Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton 42-39 in the state, with Gary Johnson at 6% and Jill Stein at 2%. Voters who support either Johnson or Stein or are undecided in the full field go to Clinton by an 18 point margin if they had to pick between just Clinton and Trump, making the head to head match up a 45/45 tie.
(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...
Every PPP breakdown is good in one aspect. They ask who did you vote for in 2012. In this poll respondents said Obama +9 when he won by 3.5. PPP has continuously done that to keep there polls close. There West Virginia poll earlier this year had romney +15 and there Missouri poll showed self identified 2012 voters at Romney +3 when hd won by 10. If you go back to 2012 there polls were real good. However this same question usually showed a 2008 breakdown as to whom everyone voted for as right in line with final outcome. The numbers in Ohio are much better for Trump then they state as Trump is picking up more support from Obama voters according to there polls.
Cankles not going to get a boost out of her convention if things keep going the way they have on day 1. Trump just needs to put down the Twitter and let them self-destruct.
Trump will do much better in Pennsylvania and Ohio then Virginia. The way he is framing the issues and the makeup of the voters are different. Virginia is an egalitarian state with every dc insider lobbyist and those who feed off the trough of dc. Northern va only area of this country never effected by economic downturn. Sad but true. Focus on Ohio and Pennsylvania. Those states are made for him and his percentage in those / will exceed Virginia.
Trump needs to grab that little turd Kasich by the swivel stack. Kasich should be given two choices- an ambassadorship in a small, far away, inconsequential country his wife will love...or pain.
See anything from VA?
And can you in one simple statement on OH tell me the Romney vs. Trump #s? I’ll tweet it crediting you.
PPP virginiapoll this June was Obama +9 50-41as to how respondents voted in 2012. There result was clinton+3. PPP Ohio poll same Obama +9 50-41 result Trump tied head to head. In 2012 there respondents almost to a tee matched the 2008 results and PPP turned in real good polls. This year they are manipulating the number. And I never discount polls. If you go back to 2008 there polls consistently hit the respondent number from 2004 but showed much more bush voters going to Obama in every state. Only this year have the respondent mix been skewed. I enjoy your write ups have read your analysis from Ohio when you lived there don’t always have time to respond due to work and kids, I don’t want credit keep up the good work.
When chuck Robb beat Oliver north in 1994 Virginia was moving left. Jerry Kilgore couldn’t win, Jim Gilmore got annihilated, only John Warner and bob McDonnell running against a rural based democrat have won anything since 2002. Besides Virginia was were Rubio performed better then Florida. It is a state were tough talkin candidates don’t resonate. We will do better this year in Maine then Virginia.
“LS” is great . This is huge. WE ARE WINNING — LS!! Go man GO
See my Tag
Agreed: Maine and many other “swing” states will go our way long before Virginia does. Virginia has a very low chance of going to Trump in November, anecdotal BS from that one poster aside.
NOVA is hardly the only heavily rat infested portion of VA. So Richmond is Republican??? Hardly. Even its suburbs which used to be rock-ribbed Republican (i.e. Henrico County) have been polluted beyond recognition by Richmond sewage.
The Hampton Roads area is Republican??? Since when?
Yes, Virginia has a better chance of going for Trump than California or Hawaii or some other psychotic liberal bastions, but if Trump NEEDS Virginia in order to win, then hello President Hitlery.
With PPP always add about 4-6 to the GOP side .
PPP just flat out lies a lot too.
“This is going to be a blowout. “
I do think that is possible.
Especially if MI or any New England state starts trending Trump.
” The same people saying that Hillary will win VA easily, are the same people saying that Trump had no chance,”
I don’t think Hillary will win it easily, but just that maybe she’ll win it. And I never thought Trump had “no chance” to win VA in the primary.
“Don’t believe it. Virginia is a swing state, and up for grabs (albeit one which leans the wrong way). It is not a Democrat lock. “
Ok. Hopefully you’re right and I’m totally wrong. I think now it is a swing state, but if it’s not solidly blue today it’s on it’s way to being solidly blue in the near future.
Besides Trump can win this election easily WITHOUT VA.
In another swing state like MI that doesn’t have so many fedgov workers.
On the other hand, VA is a must win for Hitlery, if he were to roll the dice and go all in for VA and wins it, he wins!
So, I’m still not sure I understand:
PPP in 2012 had Obama +9 in June, but the real result was . . . ?
Are you saying Clinton was up 3 in last PPP VA poll? That sounds right.
You said they had Obama +9 in OH, but “Trump is tied head to head?” No, he’s up. I’m not following. Maybe a better layout?
PPP is a dem pollster, but in 2008 and 2012 there polls were real good. However they have had to change the respondent makeup as to who each respondent voted for president in the prior election to stick with the narrative that some of these states are close for this year. That’s my beef with them. They didn’t do that in prior elections.
PPP since their inception has always asked one question. for there 2008 polls they asked bush/Kerry. For 2012 they asked Obama/mc Cain. For2016 they ask romney/Obama. In prior years this question was answered almost exactly as the prior elections final results throughout that year of polling. That question was dispositive. It told you Obama would win. This year for the first time PPP respondents are answering that question completely different. Take there poll today it shows respondents voted in 2012 for Obama +9, when the final result was 3. Further more Obama respondents are supporting Trump then romney respondents supporting Clinton.
“Trump is not going to win VA.”
Maybe. Maybe not. Last poll on RCP had the race tied.
Personally I’d think it’s a tough row to hoe, but within the realm of possibility.
Maine elected Le Page twice, a governor far more conservative then Virginia has elected in a while. Also Trump is not running as s family values southern conservative it gives him an opening our ither nominees had. Also Trump has changed the issue dynamic which is why he will win Ohio pemnsylvania good chance at Maine and why he will struggle in Virginia.
“Maybe. Maybe not. Last poll on RCP had the race tied.
Personally I’d think it’s a tough row to hoe, but within the realm of possibility.”
I agree with that.
I guess my point was that it’s a waste of time to try and win a state with such a large hostile (fedgov workforce).
Easier to take MI.
But I hope he wins VA and they call it early.
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