Posted on 06/03/2016 5:17:27 AM PDT by Kaslin
While conservative America wrings its hands over Donald Trump’s chances of beating Hillary Clinton, let’s take a moment to anticipate an event next week that would objectively, demonstrably hurt her chances no matter what any Republican does. Let us pause to assess the delicious ramifications of a Bernie Sanders win in the California primary Tuesday night.
I get giddy thinking about it. Every day of my political life right now is geared toward attracting all hands on deck for the universal necessity of preventing her presidency. The bulk of that task currently involves luring to clarity those remaining rebellious souls who can’t get past their Trump gripes to realize the necessity of this mission.
Yet along this path comes an event which could wound her chances, even fatally. This is not just a right-wing fantasy; it is in fact respected Democrat pollster Doug Schoen who penned the Wall Street Journal column this week headlined “Clinton Might Not Be The Nominee.”
The mind fairly spins. If not, then what?
One step at a time. Could Hillary lose California? Sure she could. The realclearpolitics.com polling average shows her up by six, but that is wildly inflated by a possible outlier survey showing her up by nearly twenty. The other three current polls, including NBC/Wall Street Journal, each have her up by two.
So what is likely over the weekend? Imagine a split screen. On one side, Bernie will be washed in the loud adulation of grizzled hippies, communists and mush-brained college kids. He will be relaxed, confident and aggressive against Hillary, who for her part may not mention his name much at all.
She will be busy screeching through ill-delivered attacks on Donald Trump, on the gamble that it is wise to look past Bernie to put on the mantle of presumed nominee. She is probably right about that, but if Bernie’s amped-up legions are itching to deliver one last primary blow to her, there may be no stopping them.
So what then?
It all depends on the party loyalist upper-crusters who populate the thoroughly corrupt Democrat superdelegate system. Her 543-44 lead in those rarefied ranks is the only reason we have been told forever that Bernie has no chance. Without them, he would have a solid chance, since among delegates earned through real voting, he is only behind 1,769 to 1,501.
To win the Democrat nomination prize in Philadelphia at the end of next month 2,383 delegates are needed. She will win New Jersey on June 7 and thus most of its 142 delegates. But if he can snag a big bite of that California mother lode of 546, he might at least keep her from the magic number, which opens the door for what we thought the Republicans would have to navigate— an open convention.
But that would require a massive defection of superdelegates, a long shot even if Bernie delivers a wound in the California popular vote.
Sure, some superdelegates would bail. There is a natural inclination to follow the scent of a winner if the tide is turning. But remember that these are deeply rooted creatures of the Democratic Party machine, most of whom cast their fate with Hillary early on.
They may regret that decision back when it looked like a coronation lay ahead, but they must know the dire price to be exacted for anyone jumping from the Clinton ship if she eventually wins anyway. Don’t expect widespread willingness to burn that bridge. Bernie’s forces may offer a convention rule requiring superdelgates to vote for the candidate that won their state, but that will be a tough fight in a convention hall packed with Hillary’s power brokers.
But what if Doug Schoen’s speculations do play out? It is exhilarating to consider Hillary derailed from the prize she has expected since the day she announced. But be careful what you wish for.
If Bernie can find a way to claw his way to the nomination, Republican ads will run the next morning featuring his smiling face with a hammer and sickle alongside. His base will come out in November, but he will lose independents by historic margins.
If Democrats get to hit a reset button in Philadelphia, Joe Biden may literally ride out onto the Wells Fargo Center stage on a white horse, arriving to rescue the party from Hillary’s scandals and campaign clumsiness and Bernie’s unelectability.
Biden has relatability and a campaign skill set Hillary can only dream of. And while he does not inspire Sanders-caliber adoration, he can tap into the collective goodwill of Democratic voters who have generally appreciated his years as vice president and his previous 36 years of service in the U.S. Senate.
So sure, a Sanders clubbing of Hillary in California would be a night of glee for conservatives. But if it turns out to be the beginning of the end for her, we’d better hope he winds up the eventual nominee and not Biden, who is harder to beat than either of them.
Any super delegates jumping off the sinking USS Hillary will cause her to “Foster” hard feelings towards them.
“Is there any good way to distribute the Anarchist’s cookbook to Bernie supports BEFORE the Dem convention?”
They already have it, they wrote it.
Yeah I realize that.
I can see from your writing that you’ve got a strong core of beliefs. You’re thinking that most people will look at this the way you do - with a strong core of political beliefs. I think this is an error.
Most people don’t read Bastiat, Hayek, Friedman or Rand etc...
Most people don’t know what the Constitution provides for and restricts or why it provides/restricts things.
Most people don’t talk politics on the internet.
Most people do see headlines on CBS/ABC/NBC or Google/Yahoo
This is why Sanders will play better than both you and the article author believe. He won’t call it communism even though we know it is. He won’t call it socialism even though we know it is. He’ll shuck and jive when those labels are foisted upon him. He’ll duck questions about Venezuela’s object example of socialism’s failure by saying it just wasn’t implemented properly without noting that it’s impossible to be implemented properly.
I still don’t think he’d beat Trump but I do think he’d play MUCH better than you or the author do.
As for Biden, his story will be:
“Ending the rancor in the Democrat party”
“A steady hand in time of turmoil”
“Someone who’s been there for the last 8 years”
“Someone who knows what’s happening in the world and isn’t going to overreact”
“Someone you can trust”
You and I (and many here) know all the things you posted about him are true. For the reasons I stated above about Sanders, I acknowledge that for most people, those things about Biden won’t matter. He will be untarnished by the long primary and when he takes Warren as his running mate, he’ll bring peace to the Democrat party. Most of the Sanders voters who many have switched to Trump will not switch.
And she and the Dems still end up with a severe case of stomach cramps and diarrhea, and the anti-Hillary/pro-Bernie crowd ups the ante....
Priceless!
Biden has already run for President — twice.
He imploded both times, when caught plagarizing speeches without attribution.
Biden has plenty of skeletons in the closet for Trump to exploit. Don’t forget that the main reason Obama chose Biden as VP: no one would dare impeach him and promote Joe.
It's still anyone's game because the margin of victory at this point will be 100% decided by the superdelegates. Whoever gets those will win the nomination. And that means the party leaders - the superdelegates - have to decide to support the anointed (Hillary!) or to feel the Bern.
No one will care about that because he’ll end the rancor between Hillary and Bernie. All of that will be barely spoken about, if mentioned at all. He will be portrayed as the white knight unifying the fractured Democrat party.
Trump will go after him, the way he’s gone after everyone else. “Clueless Joe” or some sort. Maybe that sticks, maybe it doesn’t. No matter what, once Biden chooses Warren as his running mate, he will have the a united Democrat party at his back. That’s a serious problem, regardless of how much an idiot he is.
Besides I want Hillary to win, what will happen to the rest of the party loyalists when the party makes her step aside?
While conservative America wrings its hands over Donald Trump’s chances of beating Hillary Clinton...
You wish! Go Trump Go!
Nothing?
Thanks to New Jersey, Clinton will be the presumptive nominee before the polls even close in California on the night of June 7.
I think the only way Biden can be inserted into the campaign is if Hillary wins the nomination and is subsequently indicted or steps down for health reasons. If Bernie wins and Obama tries to insert Biden as the candidate his supporters will Bern down the house. The DNC will have a serious revolt on their hands and Trump will sail into the White House with a 40+ state landslide while the Democrats are squabbling.
Before he takes a week’s vacation next week, Rush said it: Even if Bernie wins the little primary, Mrs. Bill goes over the top with delegates. It’s all a nothing-burger.
People in DE won’t say what is the genius they find there.
I want to first say that I respect and appreciate you perspective and opinion.
Yes, I do possess a strong core of beliefs. But one doesn't necessarily need to have obtained it from Bastiat, Hayek, Friedman or Rand etc.
Certainly I realize most folks also aren't Constitutionally or politically savvy. And yes, you're right -- the majority do get their news from the usual TV outlets as well as from Yahoo/Google headlines.
But here's where I believe you my be wrong. These same people sense something is terribly wrong with the morals and ethics of our leaders and institutions. The majority innately know right from wrong.
Sanders will not be able to brand himself as a "good Communist/Socialist" and make it stick. He can shuck and jive, duck and hide -- as will Hillary or even Biden.
Their problem will be a Donald Trump who will tear apart any pretense and act that the media used to mask, cover, and spin. They and their lies will be raw meat for Trump, who expose the flea, the maggots, and rats and grind and shred them to pieces.
As for Biden, his story will be:
“Ending the rancor in the Democrat party”
“A steady hand in time of turmoil”
“Someone who’s been there for the last 8 years”
“Someone who knows what’s happening in the world and isn’t going to overreact”
“Someone you can trust”
You and I (and many here) know all the things you posted about him are true. For the reasons I stated above about Sanders, I acknowledge that for most people, those things about Biden won’t matter. He will be untarnished by the long primary...
I'd dispute that notion totally. Biden IS indeed tarnished by his close association with O'Bamster AND the malodorous record. Trump will make him wear it with bells. THEN ridicule his utter lack of accomplishment in 8 years, his sheer idiocy, and his creepiness.
The Dems will nominate Biden and Pocahontas at their own risk. Trump will not (IMO) have any problem is taking this duo down with ease.
I hope you’re right. If I were a betting man, I’d say
Trump 57/43 Clinton (if Sanders isn’t VP)
Trump 52/48 Clinton (if Sanders is VP)
Trump 51/49 Sanders
Biden 53/47 Trump
It will embarras her, but she’s still certain to win the nomination, Sanders is too far behind to catch up.
‘“Conservative America wrings its hands over Donald Trump’s chances of beating Hillary Clinton...”
“Ridiculous and ill informed (not reflecting today’s currents) statement.”
To be expected since it’s written by Mark Davis who has always been a spineless GOPe poseur who calls himself a “conservative” for no discernible reason.
No one, not even Democrats, wants someone who didn’t go through the hard job of running for President to pop up and be the anointed nominee.
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