The end is a lot closer for Cruz than we thought

Red State Watcher ^ | 4/16/2016

[BlackFemaleArmyColonel]

In ten days, April 26th, if calculations are correct, it will be mathematically impossible for Cruz to win.

thegatewaypundit.com reports: As we noted on the 2nd, “Even if Cruz wins a third of the delegates in Rhode Island or Connecticut or any of these states, it will not be enough to keep him mathematically in the race.”

Now it looks like Cruz will not only be mathematically eliminated from obtaining enough delegates to win the election outright by April 26th, he may also have fallen to third place in the polls by the end of April, too.

Based on current conservative estimates, come April 26th, Cruz will need 657 delegates to win the election but only 585 will be left leaving him mathematically out of the race.

Trump will only need 279 delegates or less than 50% of the delegates remaining to win the nomination.

And according to our conservative estimates – Trump should gain 1237 delegates by June 7th making him the Republican nominee.

[kinsman redeemer]

Stoopit

[Cboldt]

I agree with all that. My point was that neither the GOP not GHWB accepted responsibility for GHWB’s failure, they blamed Perot. Whatever happens in this race, Trump is the GOP’s fall guy. If the GOP nominates Cruz, and Cruz is not elected, the party will assign failure to Trump. The fact that Trump isn’t a third party doesn’t matter, the party will still assign failure to him.

[DugwayDuke]

“Yeah, that’s just what we need to face Hillary in the Fall, someone who can’t win the most popular votes or delegates, yet will win on the 10th ballot using rules made up by the party elites that so many voters are against this year...yupp, that should produce a really strong candidate for the voters to rally behind... /sarc”

No, I’d rather have a candidate who can beat Hillary. BTW, FYI, neither Cruz or Trump fits that description. Both are losing to Hillary by 10-14 points in the RealClearPolitics average of all polls.

This whole Cruz/Trump argument is as important as arguing over your deck chair assignment on the Titanic. Neither Cruz nor Trump appear to be capable of winning the general election.

JMHO, but both Cruz and Trump (and their supporters too) need to clean up their acts, stop the name calling, stop the false and inflammatory accusations against each other, and start telling us why they are the one who is the most capable when it comes to beating Hillary.

[PapaBear3625]

Here’s a TV Movie moment. GOPe using Cruz as a foil, but at the convention, Cruz does the Unify the Conservatives against the Establishment thing, and throws support to Trump, making that an unstoppable force for the GOPe...

Cruz has no power to "throw" support to anybody.

After the first ballot, NOBODY has control over delegates. They become free agents. EXCEPT for the ones who are associated with the party Establishment (which I think describes most of them). THEY will vote as the Establishment tells them to, if they want any sort of future in the party.

[Popman]

-—Anybody doesn’t have the delegates Trump does.-—

That’s true, but delegates become unbound after the first round voting...

As an example Florida is a winner take all state, 90 delegates go to Trump on the first round...

If Trump fails to get 1,237 delegates, do you think all 90 Florida delegates are sticking with Trump...?

Seriously, doubt it...

[Carry me back]

Cruz cant win period.

[corbe]

Ok, tinMoutainMan, I’ll give you all the way back to Al Gore’s dad (1949).

WhenTF has any Tennessee Senators done anything ‘Conservative’, particularly in the last 10 years?

Besides bailing out Texas in her Valiant Fight against the Mexicans, The First Time:

I’m going to Texas, Yall can go to hell. Crocket on the floor of the Tennessee House.

[corbe]

GHWB is a Connecticut blueblood.

[DugwayDuke]

“When was the last time the frontrunner didn’t get the nomination? Over 60 years ago. It ain’t the 50s anymore, and whoever the pubs come up with sure wouldn’t be no Ike.”

In every case, the Republicans have nominated the candidate who won the majority of the delegates. Not once have the Republicans given the nomination to someone who almost won the majority of the delegates.

[tennmountainman]

Unlike the rest of you folks, I quit voting for the home team some time
ago. Since 2010 I have voted for the independent on the ticket.
I do not vote for Alexander, Corker or Duncan(My district rep).

I can do no more than that.

[Hugin]

Define “won”.

[OldNewYork]

“If Trump is leading by a good margin of delegates at the convention
and gets screwed, the nominee will be ill-legitimate in the eyes of
American voters.”

Agree. People can come to terms with that now or later, in an easy way or a hard way, but that’s what’s happening. I love Texas and I love Texan values and just about every Texan I’ve ever met, so I wish there were some way many of you could see your way to get on board, even keeping your reservations about Trump. Cruz has done a lot of good and can still do good, but I don’t think the presidency is something that’s for him.

[corbe]

I quit voting for the home team some time

I just watched The warriors make a mockery of my rockets, but I watched cause I believe they play by the rules, I also noticed none were whining after the contest.

[DugwayDuke]

The definition of ‘won’ is found in the rules for delegate selection adopted by the Republican party of each state. It behooves all candidates and their campaigns to become familiar with those rules.

[tennmountainman]

They may try. But Trump is no Perot.

He has been running circles around them and will continue to do so.
They may try to blame Trump, but it won’t stick.

Cruz will be finished and his purists supporters will get what they always
get.

NOTHING.

[Carry me back]

Good post. Cruz shows the establishment mentality , by trying to stop the voters from winning. Cruz has become the anti America candidate. He needs to be primaried.

[dynoman]

“What happened on April 6 that sent Cruz diving to the briny deep?”

Trump started using Colorado. Pretty much what I predicted;

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3420112/posts?page=9#9

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3420112/posts#20

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3420112/posts?page=46#46

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3420112/posts?page=102#102

Let Me Ask America a Question - Donald J Trump.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/let-me-ask-america-a-question-1460675882

[TomGuy]

The number to win hasn’t changed, I don’t think.

Maybe. Maybe not.

If they adhere to Rule 40, only Trump and Cruz qualify for the ballot, unless Kasich turns into supercandidate and wins 7 states.

So, what becomes of the delegates held by the also-rans? Do they sit on their hands during the first ballot or are they free to vote for whomever they want? If they do sit on their hands, does that reduce the number required for nomination down from 1237?

[ctdonath2]

“Trump is trying to win with the voters.
Cruz is trying to win despite them.”

Well put.

[jessduntno]

"So, what becomes of the delegates held by the also-rans? Do they sit on their hands during the first ballot or are they free to vote for whomever they want? If they do sit on their hands, does that reduce the number required for nomination down from 1237?"

The delegates for those who have washed out do not sit on their hands, they count to the credit of that candidate. If the 1237 is not reached on the first round, a new round starts. Convention delegates will then start a new vote and vote over and over again until one candidate hits the magic number of 1,237 delegates. Most state parties have their own rules for their own delegates about how many times they are required to vote for the candidate to which they are bound. But by the third ballot, nearly all delegates will be free to vote however they choose. Other national rules will be set by a panel of 112 party officials – two from each state and territory – who will have the power to change the rules just days before the convention, potentially making or breaking the presidential aspirations of candidates who fell short.

It's the rules. It gets complicated because States (as they should, IMO) have their own rules about how they vote.