Posted on 04/15/2016 5:20:02 AM PDT by GonzoII
Those Republicans united in opposition to Donald Trump’s candidacy pulled off the perfect victory in the April 5 Republican primary in Wisconsin. Through a combination of paid and earned media and successful rallying behind Sen. Ted Cruz as the alternate candidate—rather than splitting votes between him and Ohio Gov. John Kasich—the anti-Trump apparatus was able to keep the GOP front-runner’s support ceilinged to 35 percent, roughly the same number he was polling at when there were still six candidates in the race. It was a humiliating loss for Trump, and the one that finally taught him to at least marginally watch his mouth (and his retweets).The Cruz campaign has since tried to spin Wisconsin as a “turning point” in the race, or the moment when the Republican Party united behind him to block Trump’s path to the nomination. Like most spin, this isn’t entirely the case. It’s true that Trump’s near-shutout in delegates in the state hampered his ability to reach the 1,237 bound delegates he needs to secure the nomination, and his fate now probably hinges on corralling some number of unbound delegates. But the idea that this signaled a shift in “momentum” in the race toward Cruz is much less evidence-based. Throughout this back-and-forth primary calendar we haven’t seen shifts in “momentum” so much as shifts in geography.
(Excerpt) Read more at slate.com ...
My estimation is that Trump will win PA with 45-50 percent of the popular vote going over 50 percent in the ‘coal country’ and western NYC suburbs of NEPA and over 50 percent in the SWPA ‘coal country’ Pittsburgh ‘steel country’ areas.
Shhhhhhh. Don’t tell anyone....especially the MSM.... who might crack-up when they hear the news:
But........
Republicans, independents, white evangelicals, and non-college graduates prefer Trump. Plus Trump leads among (gasp) women, 44 percent, to 29 percent for Cruz and 19 percent for Kasich.
Too bad this contradicts the Cruz/Bush/Romney talking-points memo.
Trumps support in upstate New York is in second place nationally to his support in WVA.
It’s been that way from beginning.
YUGE support in both
But on the radio “news” I just heard his popularity is plunging to levels not seen since David Duke ran for prez.
We shall see. I guess Cruz and Kasich see hope in those parts and are focused there.
I wonder about the vaunted “cross-over” vote in N.Y.
The Bernie vs The Beast battle may keep those folks within the realm of their demonratic home.
Sniff, sniff, I smell delegates.
heh.
Jedi.
Don’t tell some of the loony freepers here who support Cruz the way Juliet supported Romeo! Hearts breaking and poison and self-stabbing to commence.
There is no end to the low-information from Cruzers. There is no ‘cross-over’ vote in NY. It’s a closed primary.
Can’t be, the media told me Trump was doomed after Wisconsin.
Ooooooo....that’s gonna smart.
FEARLESS PREDICTION:
April 18, 2016 will be Peak Trump - The High Water Mark of the Trump Campaign.
Trump will almost certainly get more votes in New York than either Kasich or Cruz. But I predict that, once again, Trump will not get more than Kasich and Cruz combined. Here are my predicted figures:
TRUMP: 43%
KASICH: 30%
CRUZ: 25%
MISC: 2%
This is not the kind of numbers that Trump needs to start his steamroller rolling. At the end of the day, Trump will net less than the 58% of the New York Delegates. 58% is the benchmark of success for Trump, because that is the percentage he needs to get to 1237 from here on out. Every time he falls short of 58%, the necessary percentage inches higher.
I also predict that Cruz will net more delegates than Kasich, even though he will get fewer votes. I would not be surprised if Kasich gets only a few.
This is because Trump and Kasich will both do well in the same districts. The New York City Metro Area, Long Island, and the larger cities Upstate are where Kasich will get the vast bulk of his votes. But Trump will do better in all of these areas, thereby shutting Kasich out of getting delegates.
Meanwhile, Trump is going to rack up victories in the large towns and villages upstate. These places are not offended when Cruz talks about “New York Values”, because they know full well that he is talking about the values of Andrew Cuomo and Bill DeBlasio. These values are about as popular upstate as they are in Texas, particularly amongst the registered Republican electorate.
Anyway, that is my FEARLESS PREDICTION. Y’all can come around on Wednesday to either kick my butt or kiss my butt, depending on how things work out on Tuesday.
(PS. Trump will not be able to help himself. He is going to be out on Monday predicting that he will get 70% of the vote, thus ensuring that his actual performance on Tuesday will be The Mother Of All Failed Expectations. That is why Monday will be Peak Trump.)
There is none. Last date for party registration was months ago. Wouldn't it be nice if that were the case everywhere?
You're right about that.
Even Donald Trump's own children will not be able to vote for him, because they failed to change their registration to Republican in time.
Come to think of it... Will Donald Trump be able to vote for himself?
One factor that might skew it a bit more to Trump is the ill-advised suppositions Cruz made about Trump having Italian mobster connections. He did that again last week. NY, NJ, CT, and RI all have very large and very ethnically proud Italian-American populations. And in PA, keep in mind that the OH districts that border western PA mostly voted a win for Trump. There won’t be any Kasich spill-over into PA.
Who cares? Enough actual real people will vote for him that it won’t matter at all. That is, unlike some other candidates who do their best when nobody votes.
Cruz is mathematically eliminated in 4 more days ...
Jedi pwned
Good work!
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