Posted on 04/13/2016 1:04:50 PM PDT by monkapotamus
Gingrich: ‘Odds Are Better Than Even Money’ That Trump Will Get the Delegates Needed Before the Convention
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich predicted Republican presidential front-runner would more likely than not get the needed 1,237 delegates required to secure the GOP’s presidential nomination before the Republican National Convention in Cleveland this July...
"When Cruz is running third, this is — I had not thought about this coming out of Wisconsin candidly because Kasich is doing a little better than people expected. Cruz is doing worse than people expected.”
“What it does is it’s very hard to argue you are the key alternative when you are in third place...”
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
I didn’t watch it but heard his first 15 minutes on the CNN townhall was TRUMP, TRUMP, TRUMP, TRUMP. Cruz is on the verge of a mental breakdown. The obsession with Trump would go away if he would actually win some primaries and had a chance to catch Trump......but that ain’t happening. He’s managed to win 8 caucuses, where votes can be manipulated and three primaries, his home state of Texas where 57% of the people voted against him, OK, where he barely beat Trump and both won about the same share of delegates, then Wisconsin, where the entire GOPE was backing him. Cruz can’t win big states. He was destroyed all over MI, OHIO, VA and Florida and then Trump beat him like a used rug all over the South.Now he’s on the verge of losing 6 straight. He might be in a rubber room in two weeks.
Thanks for that, and for the link. I have been trying to grasp the general assumption that Trump must win on the first ballot. It seems most unreasonable, given the popular vote and the enthusiasm behind his campaign. Besides, could he not win by selecting someone like Rubio for running mate? Can no "deals" or understandings be made prior to first ballot?
You would think that the GOP would not expend so much energy and capital to keep him off the ticket if he comes to the convention with, say, 90% of what he needs.
I would liken this to the choice of which is easier, adding a battery to an otherwise finished automobile, versus building an entire car around a battery.
Neither do I. Trump is just rude enough to lift her skirts and show the world her shortcomings. No other pol seems willing to do that, and there are millions of voters who haven't a clue about her because the MSM has never provided one.
Millennials in particular won't need much coaxing to decline to vote for a hag.
Thank you for not saying Jeb. I have to drive six hours today.
Jeez. That's a horrible image to put into my head before lunch. Now I've lost my appetite.
Bill's probably seen under her skirt (or pantsuit) one too many times. Not a very inviting sight. No wonder Hillary sleeps with Huma and Bill sleeps with whoever....
I also think he will get over 1,100 - it will be hard to deny him.
Technically the rules for this convention have yet to be written, but last years rules are the starting point. If those rules change it will be done a few days before the convention by the delegates on the rules committee. That means Cruz/Trump will essentially write the rules if they stay aligned.
We haven't had a real contested convention in awhile, but many states require their delegates to vote a certain way regardless of any deals made. In Iowa, for instance, as a result of going first we HAVE to vote at the convention, how the vote was in the state, regardless if another candidate says to use his delegate to vote a certain way. The only exception is if one candidate is clearly the winner, we are allowed to vote 100% for that candidates. Like Romney last time.
So if Trump & Rubio come to the convention as a team, in many states that would not be recognized until the second ballot under the current rules. Again that could change is a few months as alliances could be formed.
As for the GOP not just giving it to Trump because he is so close, I will list their concerns. You can call me stupid, I am not even saying I agree with these, I am saying this is their concerns
1) Trump would suffer a major blowout in Nov. He has 70% of America viewing him negatively. And the negative feelings are personal rather than political, which are harder to change perceptions.
2) He has no state organizations. To win swing states, Ohio, Florida ie you need to be working these for a long time. After both these states primaries, Trump pulled completely out. Cruz still has a number of people working in these states.
3) Trump has no fund raising to date. He self financed his own race to date, but has said he won't fund the general. That will take $1B from private and SuperPacs combined. To create a donor list willing to max out at $2700 each takes time and he will need that in the next few months. The big money SuperPac guys don't really like him, so he will be grossly underfunded.
4) He is really not a conservative and the GOP is a conservative party.
I know a lot of people will scream GOPe et al, but if it is not Trump it will be Cruz, and the GOPe HATE Cruz. Hate him.
I really think the last thing is Trump attacked other candidates so personally, they are really not going to coalesce around him. Look at Rubio, he is working with Cruz in AR to get a slate of delegates that will vote for Cruz on second ballot and not Trump. Rubio is out, why is he working with Cruz and not Trump? Because I really think there is a strong dislike towards Trump from many of the other candidates.
There were delegate elections at the precinct, county, and state level. It’s not Cruz’s fault (or the CO GOP’s) that the Trump campaign is incompetent.
Interestingly, Drudge was on a mission to kill Newt’s chance at the nomination just like he is trying to do to Cruz. Drudge doesn’t seem to like conservatives much.
| Agree. I heard the interview with Hannity too. In fact, Hannity criticized Cruz for not answering his question, at which point Cruz simply doubled down on his Trump attack. The chickens will come to roost on Mr. Cruz real soon. |
Kasich is delusional.
Cruz is between a rock and a hard place.
Trump’s options are incredibly narrow.
I’m 50/50 now that this will go to an open convention.
| ...[Cruz is] too smart for his own good. Yes, it's true. What Cruz is actually proving the last few weeks is he's not the skillful trial lawyer he makes himself out to be. His style is too accusatory, too dogmatic, too much in your face. His bookwormish, world domination (or something like that) style is not something judges, juries, and voters easily warm up to. A wise lawyer is clever, subtle, and persuasive. He certainly doesn't preach as if he's the smartest guy in the room. At the the CBS debate, Dickerson called Cruz out on a bold-faced lie (or swag) on some technical detail. When Dickerson held his ground, it became obvious that Cruz was wrong. If he could have, I'm sure he would have blamed Trump :- ) But the error was in his own brain -- or in his own "I know it all" confidence. Cruz can't hold a candle to Trump's competence and experience in the real world of business, negotiating, and large organization management. Maybe Cruz worked as a restaurant waiter or something, but he's never really held a significant non-legal job. So he's missing vital experience and knowledge that your average white and blue collar worker understands about the economy and job creation. Like Rubio before him, Cruz is merely a career politician with policy-wonk blinders on. Policy and Trump-attacking mean everything to him. Why? Because that's all he really has to talk about -- he has never built anything. The campaign he now runs is valuable management training for him, but he's still greenhorn. He was never a governor, corporate leader, or entrepreneur. He also doesn't connect well with voters across the nation. Sure, the Mormons of Utah and the Wisconsin cheese-heads turned out for him great, but the evangelical voters of the Deep South couldn't pull the lever for him, except in his home state and Oklahoma. When it's all done, the only places Cruz is likely to win east of the Mississippi are Maine and Wisconsin. Even Kasich is now polling better than Cruz in the Northeast. Cruz has and will doubtless continue to "make it" on K Street, but he lacks the right stuff to make it on Main Street... and he's certainly not ready for 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. |
Thank you, but I must admit I don't know enough about the process to engage anyone in a debate about it. I am merely trying to understand it better. Some of my questions might be smart enough to pass for debate...others might be plain dumb questions. :)
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