Posted on 04/11/2016 5:01:46 PM PDT by mandaladon
A contested Republican convention – the first in 40 years – may well be where the GOP race ends up; this is the first time since 1976 that genuine uncertainty has endured this deep into the presidential election process. But there’s one aspect that’s gone unnoticed and could silence the open convention chatter: Donald Trump may have an ace in the hole with Pennsylvania’s unbound delegates that could lift him past that magic delegate number of 1,237 by the end of the primary season.
Trump has had a tough few weeks, suffering a lopsided loss in Wisconsin and finding himself embarrassingly out-organized in Colorado. Still, he leads the Republican pack with 756 delegates, with Sen. Ted Cruz sitting in second with 545 and Gov. John Kasich and Sen. Marco Rubio (who by suspending his campaign retained many of his delegates) far back. And there’s more good news: The next six GOP contests will be staged on decidedly Trump-friendly turf. He’ll be the heavy favorite in all of them, starting in New York next week.
It wouldn’t be unreasonable for Trump’s share of the delegates in these contests to look something like this:
New York (4/19, 95 delegates): 85
Pennsylvania (4/26, 17 delegates*): 17
Maryland (4/26, 38 delegates): 32
Delaware (4/26, 16 delegates): 16
Connecticut (4/26, 28 delegates): 20
Rhode Island (4/26, 19 delegates): 10
The asterisk you see there represents Trump’s potential ace in the hole – more on that later. But for now, this would bring his delegate total to 936 heading into May. Things would get trickier then, with Indiana next up on May 3. There are arguments for why Cruz should win it and why Trump will.
(Excerpt) Read more at msnbc.com ...
An internet poll?
DK
>It takes a majority (1237) to adopt or change the rules of the convention. However, these delegates are NOT required to vote on the rules in a way that is LOYAL to the candidate they are bound to. Therefore, the 500 Trump-bound delegates who are Cruz Trojan Horses can vote to change the 1237-rule to become a 1499-rule because they know Cruz has 1500 votes on the second ballot. So they take the first vote, and it goes 1237 Trump, 1000 Cruz, etc... Trump doesn’t make the 1499 threshold, so they go to a second ballot. On the second ballot, the vote becomes 1500 Cruz, 737 Trump, and Cruz becomes the nominee.
And then Cruz loses all 50 states and probably the state governments. This type of talk is nothing more than GOPe scare tactics.
In the end they’re going to cut a deal with Trump all the crap being tossed around here is the GOPe setting the stage to negotiate.
It has always taken a simple majority to win the nomination. They are not going to change that rule - this is getting into tinfoil hat territory here. If Trump gets 1237 or more, Trump is the nominee, and in November Hillary wins and the Dems take the House and the Senate.
I wouldn't count those chickens just yet. Lyin' Ted is owned by Bush Inc. and if they tell him to release his delegates to change the rules at the convention, my guess is that he will.
I don't think even he or they are delusional enough to believe he could actually win the general election. His role has only been as a spoiler to keep Trump from doing so.
I don't know what they're going to do. They don't invite me to their meetings. A party hack with some common sense would be well advised to make a deal with Trump - if all they care about is sharing in the political spoils of GOP victory. Trump can win against Hillary. That's enough for a pragmatist.
What I don't know is how many leftist moles are in the GOPe power structure. Guys like Krauthammer who used to work for Walter Mondale are essentially social justice warriors for whom Trump is worse than Hillary. They're going to fight Trump tooth and nail.
Then you've got Karl Rove types, establishment parasites who depend on the old campaign consulting scam for their bread and butter. He can't afford a Trump candidacy - literally! It makes his whole racket irrelevant.
Whether Trump can cut a deal with the GOPe depends entirely on the relative strength of these factions. If the hacks prevail Trump can make a deal. If the neocons or campaign consultants prevail, no deal.
The other bound delegates supporting a loser are prohibited from voting. Rules Are Rules Dammit!! That’s the way it is!!
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Various States’ laws require the bound delegates to vote for the candidate that won the State. Thus, on the first ballot, some delegates will have to vote for a “loser”. Other States have extended the bounding to the 2nd ballot and Florida went so far as to make it the 3rd ballot!
No.... Trump was not ill-prepared or disorganized. Trump's running his campaign like a businessman....when you win, you win. There's no going back to redo the deal. It's iron-clad.
But lowlife Ted ....the human cockaroach....is crawling around 24/7 grabbing delegates he is not entitled to.
The Trump people just did not envision the likes of a scumbag like St Ted, reworking the rules to HIS benefit.......obsessed w/ hating Trump, bent on undoing Trump's wins.
When candidates lose, they gracefully bow out. But St Cruz has this maniacal lust for power......the kind of candidate the Framers of The Constitution wanted the new Nation to avoid.
How you gonna keep a delegate in a Canuck's camp after they've been wined and dined at Trump's Mar a Lago?
Lol...I have no idea what you're babbling about dummy.
I’ve predicted this for some time. Trump will go over the top on or before June 8. Cruz will be mathematically out of the race by April 26 or before. So, for him to continue makes no sense.
He’ll have some negotiating power between then and when Trump wins, but if he doesn’t use it, and Trump wins, Cruz is out completely.
The new dynamics of this race specifically Cruz’s mathematical elimination and the Colorado disaster will change things radically.
After Cruz is eliminated (his magic number is just 49) the anti-Trump forces will have a very difficult time formulating a plausible lie for Cruz remaining in the race. They will have to admit he is only there to force a contested convention where they can steal the nomination and put up a comfortable loser - maybe even Mitt and Paulie. That won’t sell.
The Colorado disaster has confirmed all the suspicions the rank and file have about the GOPe and were verified by the “Let them burn down the Party” comment from the head GOPe thug in Colorado. This will further energize the support numbers for Trump. Everything has/will changed and Trump gains a huge advantage because of these events.
Agreed. Trump lost the battle that will ultimately win him the war. He’s going to go on a tear and have all the momentum while Lying Ted is mathematically eliminated via the will of the people.
This movement will now officially become a revolution to overcome the Gestapo tactics of the Uniparty and the media.
Oh how true your words are. I’m working on another facet of Cruz lies and fraud, should be completed soon, with links to back up, when you live in a world of lies, you become a lie...
“Various States’ laws require the bound delegates to vote for the candidate that won the State. Thus, on the first ballot, some delegates will have to vote for a “loser”. Other States have extended the bounding to the 2nd ballot and Florida went so far as to make it the 3rd ballot!”
Unless a candidate is placed in nomination ,a bound delegate is not an eligible delegate and shall not vote until his candidate has 8 state majorities at which point he may be nominated. Rule 16 a2:” If any delegate bound by these rules, state party rule
or state law to vote for a presidential candidate at the national convention demonstrates support under Rule 40 for any person other than the candidate to whom he or she is bound, such support shall not be recognized.”
so the bound delegate not only sits silent unless and until the candidate he is bound to has 8 state delegate majorities and is in fact nominated. Until that point none of the 400 bound delegates are eligible to participate. This is vitally important in that if they don’t vote for lack of eligible status then the majority is commensurately reduced far below 1237.
Rule 40: “(d) When at the close of a roll call any candidate for nomination for President of the United States or Vice President of
the United States has received a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention, the chairman of the convention shall
announce the votes for each candidate whose name was presented in accordance with the provisions of paragraph (b) of this rule”
look very carefully at the words “ received a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention” The voted for bound non nominated are NOT entitled “TO BE CAST” . This the majority for Trump need not reach 1237 under the RULES!!! And Rules are Rules — right?
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