Posted on 04/11/2016 5:01:46 PM PDT by mandaladon
A contested Republican convention – the first in 40 years – may well be where the GOP race ends up; this is the first time since 1976 that genuine uncertainty has endured this deep into the presidential election process. But there’s one aspect that’s gone unnoticed and could silence the open convention chatter: Donald Trump may have an ace in the hole with Pennsylvania’s unbound delegates that could lift him past that magic delegate number of 1,237 by the end of the primary season.
Trump has had a tough few weeks, suffering a lopsided loss in Wisconsin and finding himself embarrassingly out-organized in Colorado. Still, he leads the Republican pack with 756 delegates, with Sen. Ted Cruz sitting in second with 545 and Gov. John Kasich and Sen. Marco Rubio (who by suspending his campaign retained many of his delegates) far back. And there’s more good news: The next six GOP contests will be staged on decidedly Trump-friendly turf. He’ll be the heavy favorite in all of them, starting in New York next week.
It wouldn’t be unreasonable for Trump’s share of the delegates in these contests to look something like this:
New York (4/19, 95 delegates): 85
Pennsylvania (4/26, 17 delegates*): 17
Maryland (4/26, 38 delegates): 32
Delaware (4/26, 16 delegates): 16
Connecticut (4/26, 28 delegates): 20
Rhode Island (4/26, 19 delegates): 10
The asterisk you see there represents Trump’s potential ace in the hole – more on that later. But for now, this would bring his delegate total to 936 heading into May. Things would get trickier then, with Indiana next up on May 3. There are arguments for why Cruz should win it and why Trump will.
(Excerpt) Read more at msnbc.com ...
If, when, this happens the Cruzers will go crazy with claims that only Ted gets to use those kinds of rules.
Kasich was born in PA. Toomey has a tough reelection fight on his hands. It’s certainly not in the PA GOP interest to go to war with Trump.
Trump has rule 40 b . He and cruz are the only men that can be nominated. The Rule won’t be changed because it takes their delegates to approve the change on the floor of the convention!!. Won’t happen!! Trump beats cruz by 500 delegates . The other bound delegates supporting a loser are prohibited from voting. Rules Are Rules Dammit!! That’s the way it is!!
I think many of the recent “losses” can be turned around on a delegate by delegate persuasion program by Manafort. Amazing what a flight in Trump’s plane and a night a Mar a Lago does for one’s attitude! If that doesn’t work, there’s always cash!
(Yes, cruz davidians, I went there!)
On the surface, Trump has to fight from now on.
He’s going to have to learn the rules and become a lot more organized before he could pull anything close to this off.
Please, if you don’t understand the system, please don’t try to lecture us on the “rules.” After the first ballot, Rule 40b does not apply because the delegates can vote for whomever they want. In other words, the delegates on the floor can change the rules by majority vote (or even acclamation).
Cash is illegal under many states rules....
85+17+32+16+20+10=180 -- 117 for Trump (or anyone) is all it takes to deny Cruz any possibility of 1237.
absolutely wrong. Show us in you learned wisdom where it says that.
The brains at MSNBC can’t even get the present delegate count right and they are projecting future votes? Sounds like some of these weather men who are pushing Global Warming
Ahh...read my tagline and THINK about it.
Incorrect
Could I get a link to that?
That is so true, if Trump decides two can play at that game, he can comp as many of the delegates as he wants for as many nights as he wants wherever he wants without a dime out of his pocket.
With all due respect Doctor, we are waiting for your learned dissertation on rule 40b on ballot #2. ? Did you know this ? It doesn’t matter if it is ballot 1 or ballot 100, You can only vote for a candidate that can be legally nominated— i.e. one with 8 state majority delegates. ONLY!! Sorry.
can you show me that rule?
I waited for him to finish before saying...yeah that's exactly why Donald Trump wants to stop companies from moving to Mexico.
His vexed expression was priceless.
According to this author Indiana is shaping up to be a primary battleground state, but I think Trump will win it.
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