Posted on 04/09/2016 12:07:15 PM PDT by Kaslin
I’ve heard a lot of predictions about the outcome of the GOP primary this week, but to say that there’s some sort of consensus forming would be a bit of an exaggeration to put it mildly. Echoing the sentiments of some of the guests on the cable news morning shows, Lawnewz said that Trump still wins the whole thing once he gets to wrangle for a few missing delegates coming into Cleveland. At the same time, Ted Cruz backer Scott Walker said that the Texas Senator is now set up to take it on the second ballot. And of course we have the clean slate predictions of those who still believe that the entire voting process will be tossed out the window and someone not even in the running right now will emerge as the GOP savior.
But now, Seth Abramson at the Huffington Post offers an even more unique reading of the tea leaves, saying that John Kasich will sweep in and walk away with the crown. Given his rather lackluster showing in every primary battle but the one in his home state, how exactly does that work? Seth lays out eight different talking points to explain this, starting with the assumption that Trump won’t get 1,237 delegates for the first ballot. This supposedly throws open the doors. (Some emphasis added.)
Ted Cruz and John Kasich staying in the race through Cleveland not only will ensure that Trump can’t get close to 1,237 delegates via primary and caucus votes, it will also ensure that both men have a reasonable delegate total by the time they arrive at the Convention — more than enough to keep both of them in the picture in the view of Convention delegates.
So Seth is saying that both Cruz and Kasich will have a “reasonable delegate total” coming in. One can make that argument for Cruz, I suppose, though according to the #NeverTrump maths, any number up to and including 1,236 is meaningless. (It never seems to be meaningless when talking about Cruz, though, for some reason.) But… Kasich? The Ohio Governor is currently sitting at 143, which is barely ten percent of the required total. He’s polling second in New York at the moment, but if Trump hangs on to his current majority in the polls that won’t matter very much.
Still, let’s move on with this string of logic. Abramason goes on to point out that while plenty of people are unhappy with Trump as a potential nominee, the “Party Elders” really hate Cruz also and he just can’t win in November.
Whereas Ted Cruz is loathed by the Republican Party elite, has lost to Hillary Clinton in head-to-head polls 55 percent of the time since November 2015, and has no actual accomplishments in government to point to, John Kasich hasn’t lost a single head-to-head poll to Hillary Clinton in 2016, is broadly if imperfectly acceptable to both Party elites and movement conservatives, and is far and away the most accomplished Republican primary candidate left.
Okay. If you like basing things on general election polls while the primary is still going on (a risky proposition at the best of times) I suppose you can make that argument. But how does that affect the actual mechanics of the nomination process? Seth claims that these same “Party Elders” will easily get Rule 40 tossed out the window which then opens the door for the tide to be turned by… Marco Rubio?
Marco Rubio has deliberately held onto his 172 delegates so that he can create a unity ticket with John Kasich in Cleveland — a ticket that will begin with somewhere between 350 and 600 delegates on the first ballot at the Convention, depending upon how many delegates John Kasich wins going forward.
Rubio is certain not to give his delegates away for free, nor to give them to his arch-enemies Cruz or Trump, nor to — as some suppose — merely fade into the background when he was and remains among the most ambitious politicians in the Republican Party.
So the Kasich presidency rides on the good will of Marco Rubio and his willingness to accept the Veep slot, bringing with him his 172 delegates. (A total between the two of them which still trails Cruz, who in turn will be trailing Trump.) That seems to be placing a lot of faith in the unpledged delegates from Colorado, Pennsylvania and North Dakota.
If Kasich were the nominee, I’ll readily admit that he might have a better shot at victory in November than Trump. Of course, “better shot” is not the same thing as victory, and it still seems to me that Kasich is such a cookie cutter swing state Governor that he also has a likely chance of duplicating Mitt Romney’s map. Is that the goal this year?
Predicting anything to do with this election is a practice which puts you immediately on thin ice, so who knows? I suppose Seth’s predictions can be pushed out there with as much validity as anyone else at this point, but it certainly sounds like it’s based largely on rainbows and unicorns at the moment.
GOPe tries to foist this clown, who has won only his own state on us, and it will be the end of the GOP.
Millions like me will fail to attend.
To hell with it.
Let the Clinton crime syndicate have it.
The establishment is still banking on the base falling in line as directed and holding their noses to vote for a place holder for the Democrats. ..... Personally, I am finished holding my nose to vote.
All through 2008 people were posting they would not vote for a rino. Mark Levin went nuts when McCain was nominated. Yet the same people voted for McCain.
All through 2012 these same people were posting they would never vote for Romney. Yet they voted for Romney. (I includ myself in these groups.)
So, it’s no wonder the gopE believes we’ll all fall in line behind their candidate. But, like you, I won’t do it again.
If he's the nominee - he won't have 'WON' the nomination, it will have been AWARDED to him by the GOPe. BTW - He will NEVER get my vote!
Not to mention it’s unfair to all those people who voted
for Trump & Cruz in the primaries.
and I have a moral obligation to deliver any amnesty candidate at least one middle finger
JPG
But why would HuffPo want Kasich since they believe Kascih will beat Hillary but Trump won’t. Could it be they are worried sick Trump will get the nomination and demolish Hillary?
The GOPe cares if Republicans stay home because of Kasich way? Those in power will stay in power even if the .republicans lose the Senate and house.
They do not care about the rank and file just the largesse they will receive for delivering on open borders and free trade.
Nominating the Kasich will mean the pantsuit Mussolini will be president
Oddly, it’s because we always do. Why should they expect any differently?
All they have to do is wave the “you don’t want Hildabeast as POTUS” meme and the base will dutifully vote.
I won’t vote for any more RINOS.
breitbart.com---Kasich came out in support of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement during the fourth GOP primary debate hosted by Fox Business; Kasich said the deal is critical.
The trade agreement the TPP its critical to us not only for economic reasons and for jobs because theres so many people who are connected to getting jobs because of trade, but it allows us to create not only economic alliances, but also potentially strateigic alliances against the Chinese, Kasich argued in support of the nearly 6,000 page agreement longer than Obamacare and the failed Gang of Eight immigration bill combined.
Theyre not our enemy, but theyre certainly not our friend, Kasich said about China.Kasich was questioned about cyber attacks and Chinese investments into the U.S. China doesnt own the South China Sea and I give the President some credit for being able to move a naval force in there to let the Chinese know we arent going to put up with them anymore, Kasich charged.
Just a thought, either Both men, Bernie and Trump, could probably gain enough support to go independent if they were pushed out unfairly from their conventions....and run together....kidding.
Trump’s certainly has the Bucks to do it.
But, imagine a four way contest in November.
(Hell, I would rather throw around speculation at this point than mud, it’s a lot more fun!)
Course many of those w/ bad credit scores could be victims of Kasich/s disastrous adventures w/ Lehman Brothers.
LOCAL YOKEL KASICH
Kasich/s "I'm-Just-A-Regular Guy act is wearing thin, The facts are these:
Kasich was managing director of Lehman/s Columbus, Ohio investment banking division until the bank went under in 2008. Kasich says "I wasn't involved in the inner workings of Lehman, I was a banker. I didn't go to board meetings or go and talk investment strategy with the top people."
Kasich is lying b/c a report in The Columbus Dispatch, quotes a Lehman official who said Kasich had board level and CEO relationships where he helped not only open the door for Lehman Brothers, but he also was a key member of the deal team providing advice.
==========================================
What does Kasich know about this?
The best book on the 2008-9 banking crisis that slaughtered our economy was The Sellout, by Charles Gasparino. He traces several threads:
- How the investment banks (Merrill, Lehman, Bear Stearns) had leveraged themselves into near-death experiences;
- How banks gave out low-down payment mortgages to buyers with sub-standard credit, forcing up prices;
- How the scam of "securitization" meant these sub-standard loans could be bundled up and sold far and wide (w/ great losses to the buyers);
- How the ratings agencies gave out dubious AAA ratings
- How the sales incentives to create mortgage-backed securities led to incredible short term behavior on the part of investment bankers;
- How AIG (insurance) screwed up by guaranteeing many Credit Default Swaps....etc, etc, etc.
==============================================
Kasich got the Lehman job b/c he introduced Ohio pension reps to Lehman officials (2010)
Did Kasich fcilitate Lehman doing education, transportation, municipal bonding deals for Ohio?
(The bonding scam: That/s where the pols and the bank make zillions of dollars in perpetuity....leaves the taxpayers w/ huge tax bills....in perpetuity).
Rush calls it the Huff and Puffington post
I do believe that Kasich would lose in the worst anti-GOP landslide ever, he would be a disaster all the way down ticket.
He's worse than Jeb as a candidate. Just awful. He's not just a deer in the headlights like Jeb, he's actually way to Jeb's left, and every time he opens his mouth he sounds like he's going to cry a bushel of tears for the chirren, the downtrodden, and any other liberal line he can gush out.
That's not going to get many votes this year of all years.......
kasich and Hillary is a choice between two gays a Lesbian and a male homosexual.
I’ll put some money against that. Not that I have much but I would put some on it.
Exactly.
Sadly I think he would put corporate interests ahead of American interests. He has already said he will pass amnesty in his first 100 days. The only legislation we would see signed would benefit his donors and legislation to make it harder to oust incumbent politicians.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.