Posted on 04/09/2016 12:07:15 PM PDT by Kaslin
I’ve heard a lot of predictions about the outcome of the GOP primary this week, but to say that there’s some sort of consensus forming would be a bit of an exaggeration to put it mildly. Echoing the sentiments of some of the guests on the cable news morning shows, Lawnewz said that Trump still wins the whole thing once he gets to wrangle for a few missing delegates coming into Cleveland. At the same time, Ted Cruz backer Scott Walker said that the Texas Senator is now set up to take it on the second ballot. And of course we have the clean slate predictions of those who still believe that the entire voting process will be tossed out the window and someone not even in the running right now will emerge as the GOP savior.
But now, Seth Abramson at the Huffington Post offers an even more unique reading of the tea leaves, saying that John Kasich will sweep in and walk away with the crown. Given his rather lackluster showing in every primary battle but the one in his home state, how exactly does that work? Seth lays out eight different talking points to explain this, starting with the assumption that Trump won’t get 1,237 delegates for the first ballot. This supposedly throws open the doors. (Some emphasis added.)
Ted Cruz and John Kasich staying in the race through Cleveland not only will ensure that Trump can’t get close to 1,237 delegates via primary and caucus votes, it will also ensure that both men have a reasonable delegate total by the time they arrive at the Convention — more than enough to keep both of them in the picture in the view of Convention delegates.
So Seth is saying that both Cruz and Kasich will have a “reasonable delegate total” coming in. One can make that argument for Cruz, I suppose, though according to the #NeverTrump maths, any number up to and including 1,236 is meaningless. (It never seems to be meaningless when talking about Cruz, though, for some reason.) But… Kasich? The Ohio Governor is currently sitting at 143, which is barely ten percent of the required total. He’s polling second in New York at the moment, but if Trump hangs on to his current majority in the polls that won’t matter very much.
Still, let’s move on with this string of logic. Abramason goes on to point out that while plenty of people are unhappy with Trump as a potential nominee, the “Party Elders” really hate Cruz also and he just can’t win in November.
Whereas Ted Cruz is loathed by the Republican Party elite, has lost to Hillary Clinton in head-to-head polls 55 percent of the time since November 2015, and has no actual accomplishments in government to point to, John Kasich hasn’t lost a single head-to-head poll to Hillary Clinton in 2016, is broadly if imperfectly acceptable to both Party elites and movement conservatives, and is far and away the most accomplished Republican primary candidate left.
Okay. If you like basing things on general election polls while the primary is still going on (a risky proposition at the best of times) I suppose you can make that argument. But how does that affect the actual mechanics of the nomination process? Seth claims that these same “Party Elders” will easily get Rule 40 tossed out the window which then opens the door for the tide to be turned by… Marco Rubio?
Marco Rubio has deliberately held onto his 172 delegates so that he can create a unity ticket with John Kasich in Cleveland — a ticket that will begin with somewhere between 350 and 600 delegates on the first ballot at the Convention, depending upon how many delegates John Kasich wins going forward.
Rubio is certain not to give his delegates away for free, nor to give them to his arch-enemies Cruz or Trump, nor to — as some suppose — merely fade into the background when he was and remains among the most ambitious politicians in the Republican Party.
So the Kasich presidency rides on the good will of Marco Rubio and his willingness to accept the Veep slot, bringing with him his 172 delegates. (A total between the two of them which still trails Cruz, who in turn will be trailing Trump.) That seems to be placing a lot of faith in the unpledged delegates from Colorado, Pennsylvania and North Dakota.
If Kasich were the nominee, I’ll readily admit that he might have a better shot at victory in November than Trump. Of course, “better shot” is not the same thing as victory, and it still seems to me that Kasich is such a cookie cutter swing state Governor that he also has a likely chance of duplicating Mitt Romney’s map. Is that the goal this year?
Predicting anything to do with this election is a practice which puts you immediately on thin ice, so who knows? I suppose Seth’s predictions can be pushed out there with as much validity as anyone else at this point, but it certainly sounds like it’s based largely on rainbows and unicorns at the moment.
Agreed. Kasich is not “broadly if imperfectly acceptable to both Party elites and movement conservatives”.
- Kasich voted for the “Assault” Weapons Ban. https://grabien.com/file.php?id=53463 and as of last year did not regret that vote
- Kasich supported and implemented Obamacare’s Medicare expansion http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/john-kasich-bible-medicaid_us_56140a54e4b022a4ce5fb1e3
- Kasich supports Amnesty for illegals. http://www.ontheissues.org/John_Kasich.htm
- Kasich dismissively said Christian bakers should “bake the cupcake” and participate in a gay parody of the sacrament of marriage, even if it violates their religious beliefs. https://www.frcaction.org/updatearticle/20160225/kasich-pushes
- Kasich supports Obama’s nominee for the Supreme Court. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/john-kasich-id-consider-nominating-merrick-garland-supreme-court-election-2016/
Which is why Trump and Cruz should agree to maintain rule 40, the requirement that ANY nominee must have won at least 8 states.
According to the story which was on radio he is firing all of them after the primary. This was not imaginary. This was reported by people inside his campaign who were amazed that this was happening. This does not lead to ‘fluffing’ but no fluffing at all and no local ground game - zero.
Wish I could point to a written account but while there may have been one, I did not stay tuned long - was in traffic at the time.
Ted Cruz....a guy who holds the Bible in one and the Constitution in the other! But reality, has no real accomplishments in life except for being number one customer for the DC Madam.
All of which "them?" Once the election is over, the get out the vote apparatus should be fired. And the general tenor of news reports has been that Trump had ZERO organization attentive to the needs of delegates, and if he doesn;t have that sort of organization, it's nonsense to says he's fired the people who are in it.
-- and no local ground game - zero. --
And he fired all zero of them! Heaven forfend!!!
Have it your way - just reporting the new here ... sorry it isn’t pro-DJT, but there you have it - like it or not.
However, with all of the pissed off voters, he doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of winning the presidency. I’m done voting for RINOs. Most of my friends are the same way.
Trump about to have his best month yet. If you think March 15th was pathetic for Cruz, you haven’t seen anything yet. His numerous third paces in the south will look good after a month in the northeast. Can’t wait!
After Trump bows out, then the GOP (possibly with Trump) can pick who they want to run in November.
The only good thing about that is Trump and the GOP has already assured that no GOP candidate can win in November. In which case, it's better that the RINOs once again take credit for losing. If Cruz lost in November, we would forever hear about how Cruz proves a conservative candidate can' win.
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I’m going to throw one out there and say that Kasich would put American interests ahead of lining the coffers of a family foundation....
My point is that the report doesn't make sense. If he wasn't wooing delegates, then he has no "delegate wooing operation" to fire, and firing the get out the vote apparatus doesn't affect any woo the delegates operation.
Kasich would lose Ohio in the General. The Public Employee Unions would see to it.
Could care less
It would not surprise me if the Republican Party did give him the nomination. I am still going to write Trump’s name in. The Democrats and Democrat Lites, a/k/a Republicans can fight it out among themselves after that.
I’ve said it before and I’ll keep repeating it: THE ESTABLISHMENT HAS ALREADY WON. THEY SET THE TRAP AND WE TOOK THE BAIT.
What happened, you ask? In hindsight, it is very clear:
1. Set the agenda - open borders, cheap labor, free trade, etc.;
2. Pit the candidates against each other, dividing those who oppose the agenda into warring camps;
3. Support a candidate who will advance the agenda, shifting as needed;
4. Vilify the leader(s) and get a brokered convention;
5. Nominate whoever the Establishment wants. Winning is immaterial; the agenda is what is important.
Bottom line is the Establishment has split the Conservative/outsider/anti-agenda voters never to speak to each other ever and set us up to blame when their candidate loses. If, by some miracle, their candidate wins, then they can punish the Conservative/outsider/anti-agenda voters.
Well it does fit the standard DJT pattern - make a deal, collect the profits, move on to the next deal. Setting the GOP up for another loss as you said.
While everyone here, Trumpeters & Cruzers alike, continue their rants against each other, there still is not a single poll showing either beating Hillary or Bernie & losing by a wide margin. You’d think there would be several showing them winning but nope.
John Kasich, former congressman with live-in male boyfriend, having a social dinner at least once a week with queers, while living the ‘straight legitimate lifestyle’ with wife and kids.
Second Amendment hating.
I hope he gets something too large for his esophagus stuck there!
Lol. I see how you would say that. I’d say the same if trump were ever in trouble throughout this primary. Luckily I haven’t had to worry about that at all.
Huff and Puff comPost.
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