Posted on 04/04/2016 6:14:42 AM PDT by Mechanicos
On the eve of the Wisconsin primaries, top Republicans are becoming increasingly vocal about their long-held belief that Speaker Paul Ryan will wind up as the nominee, perhaps on the fourth ballot at a chaotic Cleveland convention.
One of the nation’s best-wired Republicans, with an enviable prediction record for this cycle, sees a 60 percent chance of a convention deadlock and a 90 percent chance that delegates turn to Ryan — ergo, a 54 percent chance that Ryan, who’ll start the third week of July as chairman of the Republican National Convention, will end it as the nominee.
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.eu ...
The GOPe wrote rules to exclude the will of the voters
But it’s the rules!
The guys who write the rules win the game
Hugo Chavez Saddam Hussein Stalin Hitler
They all played by the rules
And Hillary will be President.
I think this is partly right and partly wrong. If either Trump or Cruz is going to get the nomination it will need to be on the first ballot. If we go to a brokered convention it is unlikely that either will garner enough votes for the nomination. But I don’t see Ryan (or God save us, Romney) getting the nod. My guess is that more than half of the delegates are going to have strong loyalties to either Trump or Cruz and they will not stand for either Ryan or Mittens. That said there is not a shortage of solid conservative alternatives out there that could be acceptable to all but the most extreme (my guy or bust) conservatives and the more more moderate types whose votes we will need in November if we are going to win...
Sen Jeff Sessions of AL.
Sen John Thune of ND.
Former Sen. Tom Coburn of OK (I have always like him.)
Sen Tim Scott of SC.
Gov. Greg Abbott of TX (I really him too.)
Former Gov. Haley Barbour of MS. (He might be a good compromise nominee.... strong conservative credentials but he has cordial relations with the more moderate wing of the party.)
Gov. Nikki Haley of SC. (Not a personal favorite but in a pinch I could pull the lever for her.)
The people pushing these stories think the voters are this stupid. And stop calling me Shirley! ;-)
If Ryan gets the nomination I stay home, his agenda is the same as the democrat party.
Does Ryan get the nomination if he loses his primary challenge? I hope so.
ha ha ha ha..Trump is like a snowball going downhill no stopping him!!
Haley Barbour? You weren’t here in 14 were you?
Would expain the jibbering laying-on-hands Glenn Beck
Cruz could even get a shrine somewhere in Utahland
Here is how I see Cruz or Trump or Ryan or any othere GOPe choice getting the nomination:
1. If Trump wins 1237 delegates in the primaries them he wins.
2. If Trump fails to get 1237 delegates he or Cruz can win on any subsequent ballot by gaining votes via both backroom deals and from the delegates who are free to vote as they choose.
2a. It widely believed that Cruz is more likely to gain votes than Trump in the 2nd, 3rd ... ballots. But I've actually seen no real proof of that.
3. It could be that the delegates fail to give any delegate the necessary 1237 votes and you have a deadlock. This is the opening for Paul Ryan or some other GOPe candidate to emerge as a "compromise" candidate.
I'm pulling for 1 or 2. I cannot believe that we will get to 3. But it could happen I suppose and there are many Freepers who believe that Option 2 will lead directly to Paul Ryan due to the total control exercised by the GOPe. I think that is just nonsense. But the deadlocked convention is a real possibility and is probably the GOPe's Great Hope.
Despite their widely aired differences, should Cruz unite with The Donald in a direct confrontation with the Establishment Republicans, by agreeing to be The Donald’s VP, there would not be a whole hell of a lot the Establishment could do about it.
Among people who keep and train horses, this is known as “taking the bit in the teeth”. A horse that does not want to submit to harsh training pushes the bit, using its tongue, up between the very powerfully muscled jaws and clamps down with the molars near the back of the jaw, making it impossible for the rider to control the animal through further pressure on the highly sensitive lips and tongue of the horse’s mouth. The next act of the horse is to run beneath a low-spreading branch of a tree or under an old-fashioned clothes line, raking the rider off to the ground.
Sometimes, to convince the horse, you have to be smarter than the horse.
The only guys I would vote for as a compromise candidate would be Jeff Sessions, Jim DeMint, possibly John Thune. Tom Coburn would be a good choice as well.
Please edit to say I hope he loses his primary challenge.
“Does Ryan get the nomination if he loses his primary challenge?...”
I know I won’t vote for a Ryan nominee. Ever.
**************
Same here. There is already abundant evidence of Ryan’s duplicity, dissembling, and liberal leanings. Not to mention that anyone involved in a scheme to disenfranchise voters does not deserve anyone’s support.
Top Republicans can watch as millions sit out the election in protest. Why have a nominating process if you are going to end up with some hand picked RINO at the end of the day?
No thanks.
Do you play chess? At the level this Game of Thrones is being played any move made by the existing ruling class will have back up. Already we are seeing the delegate system is rigged where the unbound are almost all inside party people.
So already that’s massive block of delegates to play blockage on the 2nd vote. Then you have the Fact the Trump crowd is very large and very energized ensuring Cruz cannot get the 2nd vote. Once it goes to the third all are unbound - Many of which are not as they appear but even more insiders. Then its simply a matter of arm twisting by hook crook money threat etc to get the number they need.
We are fighting the largest criminal enterprise in the world, they have no ethics no morals and no conscious so imagine what they can do to get people to vote as they want...
Please. Cruz was lucky Texas is one of the small number of states that has runoffs, otherwise Dewhurst would be occupying that U.S. Senate seat today.
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