Posted on 03/24/2016 7:57:21 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Until late yesterday, polling in Wisconsin’s primaries showed Donald Trump in a tight battle with … Marco Rubio. It had been over a month since anyone polled the next big battleground in the Republican primary until Emerson College filled the gap late yesterday. Instead of Trump having a ten-point lead over Rubio, though, the survey found that Ted Cruz had edged out in front 36/35 over Trump, and putting himself in position to take most of the state’s 42 delegates on April 5th:
As establishment Republicans look for ways to slow Donald Trump’s relentless march toward the party’s presidential nomination, Wisconsin’s winner-take-all GOP primary contest on April 5 offers some intriguing possibilities. In a statewide Emerson College poll released today, Texas Senator Ted Cruz is not only leading Trump 36% to 35% in the upcoming primary, but Cruz is only trailing Hillary Clinton by one point in a hypothetical general election matchup, 46% to 45%. In contrast, Trump is trailing both Clinton and her Democratic rival, Bernie Sanders, by the same 9-point
margin of 47% to 38% in a potential general election match-up.
The Democratic primary isn’t quite as close, but it’s not a blowout either:
In the Democratic primary, Clinton leads Sanders by 6 points, 50% to 44%, with 5% undecided. Wisconsin’s demographics bode well for Sanders, who has enjoyed his strongest wins in states with a low percentage of minorities and lopsided support for him among young voters. He leads Clinton 67% to 29% in the 18-34 age group and ties her at 48% among voters 35-54. As in other primaries Emerson College has polled, he trails her by large margins with older voters: 63% to 31% (ages 55-74) and 73% to 19% (ages 75 and up). Less than 10% of the state’s Democratic voters are African American or Latino, groups that have supported Clinton very heavily in other states.
Let’s stick with the GOP primary. Kasich falls far off the pace in Wisconsin with only 19% of the vote. According to Emerson’s data, he’s pulling more of that vote away from Cruz than Trump, as Cruz has higher favorability than Trump among Kasich voters, 36/27. If Wisconsin came down to a two-person race, Cruz might lead outside the margin of error. Trump might still win delegates by winning in one or more Congressional districts, but Cruz would win the statewide delegates and other CDs to boost his status in the delegate chase. If the polling from Emerson is accurate, Kasich probably can’t win a single delegate.
Why does this matter? Scott Walker stands poised to endorse either Cruz or Kasich; he’s made it clear that he won’t endorse Trump. Polling results like these would probably push Walker to endorse Cruz, and to do so soon, in order to get Kasich to back down. That would also be true of other Republicans who want to see Cruz block Trump from winning a majority of delegates before the convention. While the impact of those endorsements might be debatable, the potential impact might be enough to convince Kasich to look for greener pastures for his limited and declining resources. The only question would be where those pastures would be, if not in Wisconsin.
In a general election matchup, Trump fares worse than Cruz, although both come up short against Hillary. Trump would trail 38/47, losing women 33/52 and independents 33/47. Cruz, however, comes into the margin of error overall at 45/46, trailing among women by 41/49 and independents 41/45. (There are no head-to-head questions with Kasich.) In terms of overall favorability, Kasich performs the strongest at 52/30, while Cruz goes under water at 39/52. Trump’s favorability among registered voters in Wisconsin is atrocious, however, at 25/69. Hillary’s, by the way, is almost as bad as Cruz’ at 42/55.
How much does Wisconsin matter? In my book Going Red, I selected Wisconsin as a key swing state in the general election. Republicans should have no better time than now to push this state into GOP territory: Barack Obama will no longer be a factor, Walker has broken the public-employee unions’ power, and the voters now elect Republicans statewide rather than Democrats. However, this state will require both excellent ground organization and a message of pragmatic conservatism tied to local concerns in order to vote for its first Republican president since Ronald Reagan. At first blush, Kasich would be the best fit of the three, but Cruz easily out-organizes his rivals — and he knows how to tailor his message for each community.
In order to win in Wisconsin, one has to win big in the northeastern quadrant of the state, especially in Brown County. Reid Ribble, who won three terms in Congress in this region, told me what voters there want to see. “Genuineness and humility matters,” he says. “There are some very traditional values that are held dearly in northeast Wisconsin.” The candidate who wants Wisconsin has to have the ability to tap into that, or forego any hope of winning.
For now, though, the decision has to be about the nomination. If the GOP wants to win Wisconsin and its ten Electoral College votes, they had better hope Cruz pulls this off in the April 5th primary.
Update: It’s also worth noting that Trump’s Rust Belt path to the presidency depends on flipping Wisconsin. With a 25/69 favorability rating, that will be almost impossible, outside of a concession by Democrats. Wisconsin istoo much in the throes of partisan warfare for anyone with that kind of favorability rating to compete effectively for enough votes in the narrow middle that exists there.
Because Trump throws a monkey wrench in their globalist plans. No way the NAU advances under a Trump administration and that's something the CFR and Bushies have been working on for decades. It's not about cheap labor. It's all about complete North American integration. It's got to be stopped and Donald Trump is the ONLY one out there with the balls to do it.
Roger Stone has had some fascinating interviews lately. He's been a friend and confidant of Trump's for over 40 years and he knows whereof he speaks.
Ted Cruz powerful election wins,3 primaries and the rest shenanigans
AK, ID, IA, KS, ME, OK, TX, UT, WY
Right. Ted! has his papers sealed. Why would that be?!
And Ted! ALSO has HIS MOTHER’S PAPERS sealed too?!
I mean — doesnt that just give it away right there !!
This stuff needs to get in the face of all the voters - to make an informed decision.
IS HE ELIGIBLE? Cruz/s mother was born here....but evidence surfaced that she renounced her American citizenship and became a Canadian.
Proof positive was found on Canadian voting lists where she was registered to vote.
Needless to say, Canada only allows Canadians....not citizens from other countries....to vote in their elections.
Roger Stone has had some fascinating interviews lately. He’s been a friend and confidant of Trump’s for over 40 years and he knows whereof he speaks.
Roger Stone also said that he has been on the floor of every convention since way back then. Guess he knows some things.
Wisconsin ranks 25th in population density. Texas, the densest state which has gone for Cruz, is 26th. The densest state Cruz won without a home field advantage was Oklahoma, which ranks 35th. Missouri was 28th. North Carolina, the only state not yet mentioned where Cruz came close to knocking off Trump but still finished second, was 15th (a slight outlier).
Cruz should get a decent amount of delegates in Wisconsin, but shouldn’t win, going by past performance.
Higher population density states have more to fear from illegals (job stealing, general criminal activity) and Muslims (terrorist attacks). Trump has been more proactive than Cruz against existential threats, while people in low population density areas such as Wyoming can afford to somewhat ignore these threats. (I don’t think Cruz voters, or most Trump voters for that matter, recognize the dangers of Cruz’s GOP-e ties.)
Has Walker endorsed Cruz yet?
Cruz can pick up major momentum and close the delegate gap if he wins WI.
Cruz is unifying the party behind him, overcoming past tactical disagreements on holding state department appointments and using the power of the purse (led shutdown, gave poison pills for the gang of eight bill)
Trump should debate the issues with Cruz ( he wont) instead of using Trash playbook— he may have to unify the party and have Cruz as his VP.
I am for party unity . I would even make Kasich Sec of state or postmaster general, where he cant do too much harm...
RE: the rest shenanigans
Shananigan: secret or dishonest activity or maneuvering
Can you show evidence of dishonest activity?
Have heard and read about Stone. I trust him.
On Saturday Trump went for the hat trick, gleefully insulting Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker because one of Walker’s fundraisers called the billionaire real estate mogul ‘DumbDumb.’
“Finally, I can attack!” Trump said at a packed rally at Oskaloosa High School. “Wisconsin’s doing terribly. It’s in turmoil. The roads are a disaster because they don’t have any money to rebuild them. They’re borrowing money like crazy. They projected a $1 billion surplus, and it turns out to be a deficit of $2.2 billion. The schools are a disaster. The hospitals and education was a disaster. And he was totally in favor of Common Core!”
The mention of the state-driven education standards — from which Walker, like many Republican governors, has walked away — incited a prolonged boo. That was not enough for Trump, who told a story about Walker giving him a “beautiful plaque” out of gratitude for campaign donations and wondered if “Wisconsin paid for it.”
Doubt Trump will be getting Walker’s endorsement.
If Trump wants WI and he should he better start running some really hard hitting ads.
Here’s another one for a laugh:
Remember when Uber- Christian Glenn Beck called Trump’s wife Melania a Lesbian Porno Model? Yes, Cruz camp is so respectful of women aren’t they? Why some Freepers who support Cruz call Trump’s wife all kinds of tawdry names. So Christian.
Guess Beck would really unload on Carla Bruni and the ex first lady of Italy too, for their prior modeling poses.
I ain’t no lawyer (thank GOD) but my contempt for Cruz is growing by the minute. If he can be taken out, (avec le trash), it be OK by me : )
In House Speaker Paul Ryan's hometown.
LOL!
Yeah, clearly....
Gotta love it!
Go Trump. Show the RINO’s the door. ALL of them.
The background music is hysterical.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BDV28yimhQp/
Donald and Melania Trump seem to have a nice relationship.
He and she talk on the phone throughout the day. She is a good mother to his son. She has exactly the right mindset for him. She does not give him everything, an she is instilling a grasp of what is right and wrong, and a sense of morals to see him through his lifetime. That to me seem aware and sensible. She has a healthy perception of what her role in all this is. She is her own woman in that she doesn’t always agree with him. He runs things by her. She tells him when she disagrees. They are friends.
Contrast this to the Wookie and the shrill Hillary Clinton.
Melania was a nude model. Men and women enjoy photos of models. Someone will be doing it. I’m not going to trash women on that alone, so those trying to get me to are woefully off track.
The two interviews I have seen with her have impressed me. She is not an airhead. She has depth, is reasoned, and is a real thinker. She knows her role, and she is prepared to act properly as a wife, a mother, and a first lady.
Melania will do right by the nation. That’s all I care about.
LOL
LOL!! I saw that, earlier.
The clips of Linda, ¡Yeb! and Snarly are hilarious.
Clown music for the CRuz Circus Campaign.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.