Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Cruz on back to Texas, Ted. You gave it your best shot!
The Green Papers 2016 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions ^ | March 23, 2016 | Myself/Vanity/Data Analysis

Posted on 03/23/2016 12:36:12 PM PDT by Beautiful_Gracious_Skies

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R

THE DELEGATE RACE MATH ~ 35% of the primary election race remains.

Trump won 7,825,264 votes -—> 755 delegates.

T.Cruz won 5,737,119 votes —-> 465 delegates.

~~Countdown to 1237 delegates~~

There are 895 hard delegates remaining of which some are free/soft delegates. Some delegates have already been won by other candidates. We have 808 new delegates 'up for grabs' in the upcoming races.

Donald Trump: 755 delegates won. He must win 482 more delegates to reach 1237. That is 59% of the 808 remaining hard delegates. He may lose 397 more delegates & still win 1237.

Ted Cruz: 465 delegates won. He must win 772 more delegates to reach 1237. That is 96% of the 808 remaining hard delegates. He may lose 36 more delegates & still win 1237.

The current rules set a goal of reaching a simple majority of the delegates combined with a majority win of eight state delegations. When no candidate earns the majority of delegates, the rules change significantly.


TOPICS: Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: belongsinchat; byebyeteddy; cruz; elections; noob; noobvanity; primary; shutupnoob; trump; vanity
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 121-140141-160161-180181-191 next last
To: G Larry

Why would Cruz win on the second ballot? Why couldn’t Trump win on the second ballot? He could make great deals for delegates from others that dropped out. He could maneuver for Cruz delegates who after voting early for Ted now see that he is just an establishment whore.

I’ll wait and see, but the most likely scenario is that Trump gets the 1237 first ballot WIN!

GO TRUMP!


141 posted on 03/23/2016 2:48:11 PM PDT by faucetman ( Just the facts, ma'am, Just the facts)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 47 | View Replies]

To: Beautiful_Gracious_Skies
Ditto that, but he does the party and the people a disservice the longer he stays. If his goal is to win at any costs and involves strong arming delegates and changing rules to enable his win, his final loss will be incredibly embarrassing.

Well, I said the same thing about Kasich...but he believes he has a reason to stay in so he can go to the Convention. I don't necessarily "like it"....but a candidate is able to run as long as the money lasts...so there it is.

Cruz says he believes he can win enough delegates to make it. Is he dreaming....or counting on a "popular wave" to turn things around for him? I have no idea.

They BOTH seem to believe Trump will never make the 1237 "magic number". If Trump does pull out the required number of delegates, he will make Kasich and Cruz "eat crow", and I'll be okay with that.

The deals are no longer secret with the advent of social media. We will hear within seconds of the deceits that they plan to conspire. The Smoky Backroom at the convention will be getting a great deal of sunshine.

Sound good to me.....but I have no reason, at this point, to believe that Cruz OR Kasich intend to do something "nefarious" at the convention beyond play by the rules.

142 posted on 03/23/2016 2:51:35 PM PDT by TXSearcher (The anti-RINO rebellion is being won by a NY RINO.......truth IS stranger than fiction.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 98 | View Replies]

To: The Toll

That is what bothers me. Candidate A doesn’t win on first ballot, so there has to be a second casting. What is to negotiate? Candidate A earned the most legit chits, so delegates for B (or B & C...), who know how to count, cast for A on next ballot. Not rocket science.


143 posted on 03/23/2016 3:09:17 PM PDT by gloryblaze
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 103 | View Replies]

To: TXSearcher

You are underestimating the establishment within the party and their overall will to survive. They seek to maintain the status quo and will not give up their power.

Cruz & Kasich are both neophytes to the convention. They do not need to personally plot or do anything nefarious themselves. There are dozens of lawyers, dealers and handlers that will have Plan A, B, C, D, and so forth that can make things happen.


144 posted on 03/23/2016 3:14:34 PM PDT by Beautiful_Gracious_Skies
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 142 | View Replies]

To: gloryblaze

In 1948, the first place candidate and the lower tier candidates united to freeze out the second place candidate.


145 posted on 03/23/2016 3:21:49 PM PDT by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 143 | View Replies]

To: Beautiful_Gracious_Skies

I said this before but I’ll gladly say it again. If I were Trump I would cut little Marco a deal for his delegates and give him some BS cabinet position in the Trump administration. Then tell Cruz “you’re fired”.


146 posted on 03/23/2016 3:29:29 PM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Beautiful_Gracious_Skies

I REST MY CASE.


147 posted on 03/23/2016 3:29:54 PM PDT by CyberAnt ("Peace Through Strength")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jjotto
In 1948, the first place candidate and the lower tier candidates united to freeze out the second place candidate.

Well, if the first placed candidate gave up his number 1 position and thereby lost the nomination, that was his choice, not one foisted on him against his will and that of the voters by plurality

If the 2nd place delegates refused to count properly, then maybe the 3rd place delegates took care of business, so that the voters prevailed.

I'll admit to a failed knowledge of that primary, and didn't want to try to google-ate fake my way to a little knowledge, which is always dangerous.

148 posted on 03/23/2016 3:43:45 PM PDT by gloryblaze
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 145 | View Replies]

To: AFret.

They won’t have to. His whacked religious views will do him in.


149 posted on 03/23/2016 3:44:29 PM PDT by Charlie Browns Gun
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 132 | View Replies]

To: Georgia Girl 2

But, it’s not that simple.
And he brings little to the table.
I suspect Kasich has more control of his, not sure of Ohio rules.

From what I read, Marco only controls 29 of the 169. Each state has their rules regulating redistribution. 54 are unbound and he probably never met them or exerts any control. The state parties control 19 of his people.


150 posted on 03/23/2016 3:53:13 PM PDT by Beautiful_Gracious_Skies
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 146 | View Replies]

To: Beautiful_Gracious_Skies

More like 83 of Marco’s delegates as 54 would be immediately unbound and open to seduction and 29 that Marco can release but not redirect. That does not mean he cannot go to bat with the 83 to woo them over to Trump. Not to mention Trump can start wooing them.

Personally I think Trump will likely get 1237 delegates but if he does not he is only going to be short by a few. He should also be able to pick up Carson’s delegates.


151 posted on 03/23/2016 3:58:37 PM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 150 | View Replies]

To: TXSearcher

Trump has the only foreseeable road to victory taken into account the future elections. Cruz’s path is like a tight-rope walk dependent on Ted winning at double his usual rate. Plus he needs a great deal of delegate reassignments to go his way.

For the record:
California’s 172 Delegates.
It has 53 Congressional Districts (WTA) and At-Large delegation (WTA)
Individual CD and At-Large delegates are chosen by the Presidential candidates. The delegates are basically bound until the 3rd ballot.

Each delegate to the Republican National Convention shall use his or her best efforts at the convention for the party’s presidential nominee candidate from California to whom the delegate has pledged support until the person is nominated for the office of President of the United States by the convention, receives less than 10 percent of the votes for nomination by the convention, releases the delegate from his or her obligation, or until two convention nominating ballots have been taken. Thereafter, each delegate shall be free to vote as he or she chooses.... [California Elections Code Section 6461.(c)]

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/CA-R


152 posted on 03/23/2016 4:10:44 PM PDT by Beautiful_Gracious_Skies
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 142 | View Replies]

To: Georgia Girl 2

Since you’re a Georgian and Marco has 16 GA delegates:

Georgia Code § 21-2-196: “... a delegate or ... shall file a qualification oath ... pledging support ... to the candidate ... for the office of President ... for whom they are selected to support. The oath shall state that the delegate ... affirms to support such candidate until the candidate is either nominated ... or receives less than 35 percent of the votes for nomination ..., or until the candidate releases the delegates.... No delegate shall be required to vote for such candidate after two convention nominating ballots...”

Georgia Code § 21-2-197: “Any delegate to a national convention whose presidential candidate withdraws ... shall be an unpledged delegate ...”

But did Marco suspend or withdraw? assuming there’s a difference. BTW, the GA delegates were chosen this past weekend.


153 posted on 03/23/2016 4:18:35 PM PDT by Beautiful_Gracious_Skies
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 151 | View Replies]

To: Beautiful_Gracious_Skies
"That is 96% of the 808 remaining hard delegates. [Ted] may lose 36 more delegates & still win 1237."

LOL! FUTC!

154 posted on 03/23/2016 6:58:49 PM PDT by StAnDeliver (#Getbackinthebackofthebus)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: G Larry
Cruz will win on the second ballot and Trump will be too embarrassed to even return to “reality” TV.

If so, Trump supporters sit out the election and Hillary wins.

Enjoy that.

Not going to support a corrupt Republican party in any fashion.

I'm registering Independent and leaving this filthy party.

155 posted on 03/23/2016 10:00:22 PM PDT by The Iceman Cometh (Time To Come Together? Trump & Cruz 2016?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: fortheDeclaration
Once people realize the difference between Mrs. Trump and Mrs. Cruz, Trump runs away with a crushing victory.
156 posted on 03/23/2016 10:01:33 PM PDT by GilGil
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: G Larry
Cruz is JUST WINNING under the rules.....THAT is NOT “stealing” anything.

It's corrupt and I would refuse to reward the filthy Republican party with my vote.

Me and my wife end our 30 year run as Republicans and leave the party for good.

157 posted on 03/23/2016 10:02:42 PM PDT by The Iceman Cometh (Time To Come Together? Trump & Cruz 2016?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]

To: The Iceman Cometh
It will be Trump's own fault if he doesn't have 1237 delegates when the first vote is taken in Cleveland.

Unless you can show me that the other candidates are not playing by the rules, then they can stay in as long as they so desire.

Trump has sown up the angry vote, now he has the chance to grab the other voters. That's when his numbers will soar past Hillary.

158 posted on 03/23/2016 10:06:42 PM PDT by Night Hides Not (Remember the Alamo! Remember Goliad! Remember Mississippi! My vote is going to Cruz.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 155 | View Replies]

To: Night Hides Not
Unless you can show me that the other candidates are not playing by the rules,

Rules? You mean the rules that the RNC can change up to a day before the convention? When have rules mattered? If the leading delegate holder is denied the nomination, whoever the Republicans attempt to foist on the party will get crushed by Hillary.

Cruz would get crushed in the South, the Northeast and the left coast. Cruz would pick up a few states but it would be a blowout.

159 posted on 03/23/2016 10:11:55 PM PDT by The Iceman Cometh (Time To Come Together? Trump & Cruz 2016?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 158 | View Replies]

To: The Iceman Cometh
Your tagline doesn't square with your post. If Trump can get to 1237, I dare the RNC to change the rules. They can't be that stupid. It would cost the Pubbies the House and the Senate, in addition to HRC as president.

I think Cruz will be open to a deal before the convention, he's not establishment in my view.

160 posted on 03/23/2016 10:26:33 PM PDT by Night Hides Not (Remember the Alamo! Remember Goliad! Remember Mississippi! My vote is going to Cruz.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 159 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 121-140141-160161-180181-191 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson