Posted on 03/23/2016 12:36:12 PM PDT by Beautiful_Gracious_Skies
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R
THE DELEGATE RACE MATH ~ 35% of the primary election race remains.
Trump won 7,825,264 votes -—> 755 delegates.
T.Cruz won 5,737,119 votes —-> 465 delegates.
~~Countdown to 1237 delegates~~
There are 895 hard delegates remaining of which some are free/soft delegates. Some delegates have already been won by other candidates. We have 808 new delegates 'up for grabs' in the upcoming races.
Donald Trump: 755 delegates won. He must win 482 more delegates to reach 1237. That is 59% of the 808 remaining hard delegates. He may lose 397 more delegates & still win 1237.
Ted Cruz: 465 delegates won. He must win 772 more delegates to reach 1237. That is 96% of the 808 remaining hard delegates. He may lose 36 more delegates & still win 1237.
The current rules set a goal of reaching a simple majority of the delegates combined with a majority win of eight state delegations. When no candidate earns the majority of delegates, the rules change significantly.
Why would Cruz win on the second ballot? Why couldn’t Trump win on the second ballot? He could make great deals for delegates from others that dropped out. He could maneuver for Cruz delegates who after voting early for Ted now see that he is just an establishment whore.
I’ll wait and see, but the most likely scenario is that Trump gets the 1237 first ballot WIN!
GO TRUMP!
Well, I said the same thing about Kasich...but he believes he has a reason to stay in so he can go to the Convention. I don't necessarily "like it"....but a candidate is able to run as long as the money lasts...so there it is.
Cruz says he believes he can win enough delegates to make it. Is he dreaming....or counting on a "popular wave" to turn things around for him? I have no idea.
They BOTH seem to believe Trump will never make the 1237 "magic number". If Trump does pull out the required number of delegates, he will make Kasich and Cruz "eat crow", and I'll be okay with that.
The deals are no longer secret with the advent of social media. We will hear within seconds of the deceits that they plan to conspire. The Smoky Backroom at the convention will be getting a great deal of sunshine.
Sound good to me.....but I have no reason, at this point, to believe that Cruz OR Kasich intend to do something "nefarious" at the convention beyond play by the rules.
That is what bothers me. Candidate A doesn’t win on first ballot, so there has to be a second casting. What is to negotiate? Candidate A earned the most legit chits, so delegates for B (or B & C...), who know how to count, cast for A on next ballot. Not rocket science.
You are underestimating the establishment within the party and their overall will to survive. They seek to maintain the status quo and will not give up their power.
Cruz & Kasich are both neophytes to the convention. They do not need to personally plot or do anything nefarious themselves. There are dozens of lawyers, dealers and handlers that will have Plan A, B, C, D, and so forth that can make things happen.
In 1948, the first place candidate and the lower tier candidates united to freeze out the second place candidate.
I said this before but I’ll gladly say it again. If I were Trump I would cut little Marco a deal for his delegates and give him some BS cabinet position in the Trump administration. Then tell Cruz “you’re fired”.
I REST MY CASE.
Well, if the first placed candidate gave up his number 1 position and thereby lost the nomination, that was his choice, not one foisted on him against his will and that of the voters by plurality
If the 2nd place delegates refused to count properly, then maybe the 3rd place delegates took care of business, so that the voters prevailed.
I'll admit to a failed knowledge of that primary, and didn't want to try to google-ate fake my way to a little knowledge, which is always dangerous.
They won’t have to. His whacked religious views will do him in.
But, it’s not that simple.
And he brings little to the table.
I suspect Kasich has more control of his, not sure of Ohio rules.
From what I read, Marco only controls 29 of the 169. Each state has their rules regulating redistribution. 54 are unbound and he probably never met them or exerts any control. The state parties control 19 of his people.
More like 83 of Marco’s delegates as 54 would be immediately unbound and open to seduction and 29 that Marco can release but not redirect. That does not mean he cannot go to bat with the 83 to woo them over to Trump. Not to mention Trump can start wooing them.
Personally I think Trump will likely get 1237 delegates but if he does not he is only going to be short by a few. He should also be able to pick up Carson’s delegates.
Trump has the only foreseeable road to victory taken into account the future elections. Cruz’s path is like a tight-rope walk dependent on Ted winning at double his usual rate. Plus he needs a great deal of delegate reassignments to go his way.
For the record:
California’s 172 Delegates.
It has 53 Congressional Districts (WTA) and At-Large delegation (WTA)
Individual CD and At-Large delegates are chosen by the Presidential candidates. The delegates are basically bound until the 3rd ballot.
Each delegate to the Republican National Convention shall use his or her best efforts at the convention for the party’s presidential nominee candidate from California to whom the delegate has pledged support until the person is nominated for the office of President of the United States by the convention, receives less than 10 percent of the votes for nomination by the convention, releases the delegate from his or her obligation, or until two convention nominating ballots have been taken. Thereafter, each delegate shall be free to vote as he or she chooses.... [California Elections Code Section 6461.(c)]
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/CA-R
Since you’re a Georgian and Marco has 16 GA delegates:
Georgia Code § 21-2-196: “... a delegate or ... shall file a qualification oath ... pledging support ... to the candidate ... for the office of President ... for whom they are selected to support. The oath shall state that the delegate ... affirms to support such candidate until the candidate is either nominated ... or receives less than 35 percent of the votes for nomination ..., or until the candidate releases the delegates.... No delegate shall be required to vote for such candidate after two convention nominating ballots...”
Georgia Code § 21-2-197: “Any delegate to a national convention whose presidential candidate withdraws ... shall be an unpledged delegate ...”
But did Marco suspend or withdraw? assuming there’s a difference. BTW, the GA delegates were chosen this past weekend.
LOL! FUTC!
If so, Trump supporters sit out the election and Hillary wins.
Enjoy that.
Not going to support a corrupt Republican party in any fashion.
I'm registering Independent and leaving this filthy party.
It's corrupt and I would refuse to reward the filthy Republican party with my vote.
Me and my wife end our 30 year run as Republicans and leave the party for good.
Unless you can show me that the other candidates are not playing by the rules, then they can stay in as long as they so desire.
Trump has sown up the angry vote, now he has the chance to grab the other voters. That's when his numbers will soar past Hillary.
Rules? You mean the rules that the RNC can change up to a day before the convention? When have rules mattered? If the leading delegate holder is denied the nomination, whoever the Republicans attempt to foist on the party will get crushed by Hillary.
Cruz would get crushed in the South, the Northeast and the left coast. Cruz would pick up a few states but it would be a blowout.
I think Cruz will be open to a deal before the convention, he's not establishment in my view.
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