Posted on 03/21/2016 10:07:00 AM PDT by GodGunsGuts
Two more states vote on Tuesday, Utah and Arizona. After Donald Trump's big win last week, many might expect him to win big here, too. That might happen in Arizona, but don't bet on the Donald winning Utah.
Trump leads the polls in Arizona, the biggest remaining winner-take-all state in the GOP primary -- with 58 delegates up for grabs. Arizona has a closed primary, however, which means that only registered Republicans can vote -- a style that has tended to help Ted Cruz. Word on the ground in the state gives Cruz and Trump nearly equal odds of winning.
"I think Cruz will pull the upset," Kurt Davis, a neutral Republican in Arizona and close confidante of Senator John McCain, told The Hill. "He's the only candidate with any kind of organization out here and they have him positioned to spring the upset. They just have to deliver." In the two polls released this month, Trump leads Cruz by 12 and 14 points, but much of Marco Rubio's old support has swung behind the Texas senator. Cruz may have a fighting chance in Arizona only because Rubio dropped out last week.
Two more states vote on Tuesday, Utah and Arizona. After Donald Trump's big win last week, many might expect him to win big here, too. That might happen in Arizona, but don't bet on the Donald winning Utah.
Trump leads the polls in Arizona, the biggest remaining winner-take-all state in the GOP primary -- with 58 delegates up for grabs. Arizona has a closed primary, however, which means that only registered Republicans can vote -- a style that has tended to help Ted Cruz. Word on the ground in the state gives Cruz and Trump nearly equal odds of winning.
"I think Cruz will pull the upset,"...
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
My family and I are caucusing for Trump in Utah.
We have not yet met an actual Cruz voter.
I am sure they are all near the “Mother Ship” in Provo.
I have actually seen more support for Kasich, who did 3 events here in Utah.
Go figure.
They like Kasich because he’s polite.
Another pundit that doesn’t know what he is talking about. Yes, in the closed caucus states, Cruz has done best. Arizona is a closed primary. After tossing out home states of Texas and Ohio, Trump has done even BETTER in CLOSED primaries than open primaries. Trump wins Arizona easily.
At the same time, I think Trump will easily take Arizona. If he is the nominee in the general, I will vote for him against Hillary. To not vote is not an option. Hillary must be defeated.
You go, Fidelis...but I respectfully disagree re: Arizona...I think there is a good chance that Cruz could take it now that the field has narrowed.
GodGunsGuts: I do think Cruz still has a chance here, but Trump certainly seems like a juggernaut at this point, especially in areas that have traditionally been conservative. I think a lot more of them will turn out to vote than have in recent elections. Lots of pissed off people here. Doesn’t help that we got stuck with McCain as our candidate again.
But...but...he’s the fulfillment of Mormon prophecy.
Word on the ground? Where is that coming from a drunken Indian? :-)
“I do think Cruz still has a chance here, but Trump certainly seems like a juggernaut at this point, especially in areas that have traditionally been conservative. I think a lot more of them will turn out to vote than have in recent elections. Lots of pissed off people here. Doesnt help that we got stuck with McCain as our candidate again.”
Yesterday I felt like Cruz might be closing the gap in AZ, but then I saw the poll out today Trump 46-33. Supposedly Cruz’s internals have him within two, but over half have already early voted, so I think if you look at everything collectively, I’d say 80% chance Trump wins.
Of course, UT is another story, and very good chance Cruz breaks 50% there to take all 40 delegates. I don’t know what else to say about UT — apparently, Mormons recognize a cult when they see one :)
Doesn’t help that McCain is backing Cruz, either.
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