Posted on 03/11/2016 2:43:31 PM PST by Kaslin
Could independent voters hand Trump a general election win?
Don’t let GOP Establishment naysayers fool you — Donald Trump is positioned to win a general election with the help of working class and independent voters attracted to his economic message.
While Sen. Lindsey Graham may liken nominating Trump to being “on the team that bought a ticket on the Titanic after we saw the movie,” polling suggests Trump has wider appeal than the Establishment cares to admit.
At the core of Trump’s support has been largely less-educated, low-income white voters, the average blue-collar Americans who have been aligning less and less with the Democratic Party.
It might be tempting to ask if Trump can pull white, less-educated voters who lean Democrat to the Republican Party like Ronald Reagan did in 1980, but research actually shows that since 1980 that demographic has already distanced itself from the Democratic Party, aligning itself more with Republicans.
What’s more, since 1980 there has been a 9.5 percent decrease in the amount of white voters with no college education who identify as Democrats, according to a Washington Post report.
Since 1980, this demographic swung more to the Republican party with the exception of 1992, 1996, 2008, and 2012. Some Democratic strategists suggest that they fear a Trump nomination because of his ability to bring these voters back to the GOP -- something Romney wasn't able to do in 2012.
Indeed, Romney lost among voters making less than $50,000, which make up roughly half of American households according to U.S. census data, a demographic that Trump is currently winning. Additionally, Romney wasn't able to churn out enthusiasm the way Trump has — with only 32 percent of Republicans voting in the general election.
The high turnout and record-shattering numbers Trump has brought to the Republican primary contests, however, mirror the enthusiasm Obama’s candidacy created among Democrats in 2008. It’s possible this same enthusiasm could carry over to a general election.
Another untapped resource in American electorate poised to give Trump a significant advantage in a general election is "new" voters — including voters who are considered "lost," meaning they have not voted in years due feeling left out by the two political parties.
This demographic tends to be more politically apathetic, but this year they have found a champion in Trump and are turning out to vote.
Then there’s the independent voters. So far in the Republican primaries and caucuses independents have strongly pulled for Trump, who has garnered between 20 and 50 percent among them.
Looking ahead to the general election, a CNN/ORC poll conducted at the end of February revealed a close match-up between Clinton and Trump in a general election among independent voters, with 48 percent support for Clinton compared to 44 percent for Trump.
But given the poll’s margin of error of the poll was 5.5 percent, it’s not a stretch to infer that independent voters are effectively split between Clinton and Trump. What’s more, the CNN/ORC survey asked voters to choose which of the remaining candidates, regardless of party affiliation, they trust most to handle seven key issues.
Trump dominates the list, specifically on the economy, with 38 percent to Clinton’s 25 percent. When broken down further, Trump leads on the economy specifically among independents 39 percent to Clinton’s 18 percent. But he also leads Clinton as well on the issues of terrorism and immigration, while Clinton trumps him when it comes to health care, foreign policy, and race relations.
This bodes well for Trump, as the economy remains the number one concern among voters across party lines, with close to half saying it is the deciding factor when voting for a president. Independent voters are a wild card in this election but for now they seem to be in Trump's camp.
The secret of Trump's success is not xenophobia, or racism, or bigotry, or a silent majority with a fetish for large walls, but everyday Americans who feel betrayed by the Establishment and find Trump's America-first attitude when it comes to trade and jobs incredibly appealing.
It's the economy, stupid.
Any polls that say otherwise are lying push polls.
LifeZette needs a better name.
“Don’t let GOP Establishment naysayers fool you — Donald Trump is positioned to win a general election with the help of working class and independent voters attracted to his economic message. “
I agree. Reagan won also with the Dems voting for him too.
I don’t know who broad his appeal is, but his broads are pretty appealing.
A lot of these independents were once Republicans who left because of the GOPe
Lindsey Graham STFU. Both parties have screwed the Americans royally. Trump comes along and has some working solutions that might bring some sanity back. The current establishment don’t like the idea that they will lose power and their stealing of America’s wealth. Like most Americans we are getting tired of being screwed.
Trump for President.
“I agree. Reagan won also with the Dems voting for him too.”
There is a yuuuuuuuge difference between the two, though. Reagan had an enormously popular base and widespread manufacturing and defense industry base support, was “The Great Communicator” AND had executive experience. His exposure through his representation of GE was probably more valuable than his hosting the TV show or B movies. Plus, he was a self deprecating man, firm, but with a terrific sense of humor.
He applied to an exclusive CC in Los Angeles and during the interview was told that they suggested he apply to Lakeside, that they really didn’t have show business people in their membership, especially actors.
He smiled and said “you are obviously not familiar with my work.” He was ushered in almost on the spot.
I’m not slamming Trump. I think that Reagan’s breadth of experience and his charisma might not be matched anywhere in American history.
like his wisecrack about murdering Ted Cruz, Linda seems to have a habit of repeating anectdotes he has heard someone else use. Except they might have been funny then.
The GOP establishment has talked about expanding the party but they don’t really mean it.
They fight Trump every step of the way instead of seeing what a political gold mine he’s brought the party.
For the GOP to win, it can no longer remain the exclusive club of the country club set and the blue blood elite.
Two things happen to political parties: they either grow or they die. The GOP is now at such a fork in the road.
Time for them to choose.... wisely.
And circumstances constantly change. Reagan himself, if he were living today, might be a fish out of water now.
A lot of great statesmen’s reputations were formed after the fact, not before. Trump if elected comes to the presidency as a tabula rasa. Even Reagan wasn’t looking all that wonderful in the first couple of years. Then the momentum started to change direction.
With the Internet, we are tempted to tell time by the second hand of the clock, so to speak. Some silly tweet is coast to coast and making headlines before the next deadline. Then it echoes around and around and around, sometimes in multiple versions. This is a much noisier and much more impatient informational environment than existed in Reagan’s time. I would expect Trump’s ratings to plummet like a rock for about two years as well, until he’s managed to swing around the ship of state, and then to start gaining a halo. I’m going to keep reminding FReepers of this, if I am still on at the time.
They wanted the big tent but complained about the clown required to fill it.
“And circumstances constantly change. Reagan himself, if he were living today, might be a fish out of water now.”
You make some good points. Certainly the man must fit the times to catch the kind of lightning in a bottle that RR did.
My observation was meant to be more focused on the man and not so much the time, maybe thinking that he was a man for all seasons. I think you may be right though. Thanks.
One observation: You see the word "desperate" and you see the Trumpster scowling. It makes you conclude that he's part of the desperate, frustrated Establishment.
Then you notice Cruz and he's got this big "winner" smile. So it looks as if Cruz is chuckling at the demise of the Establishment, and Trump is upset about it. Is that the intent?
Yeah... different lightning, different bottle. The heavy defense industry backing of Reagan would not apply in this “post Star Wars” era. The emergency of the moment is the chaos wrought by eight years of Obama grade Damn-o-crats, exacerbated by the ISIS terrorism problem.
If Trump is found to address this issue well, then he’s probably also going to come out of this thing with a substantial halo. I could easily envision a plan between Trump and Putin to squash ISIS flatter than a bug, with Russian oil there to back us up in case Saudi Arabia pitches too big a fit. Old enemies aren’t necessarily new enemies. Nobody in 1940 could envision the modern day Japan, which came roaring back into robust civility from the trouncing it got because America was such a gracious conqueror. America lives in a very dynamic world.
I saw both of those on twitter.
“They fight Trump every step of the way instead of seeing what a political gold mine he’s brought the party.”
It’s because they don’t give a fig about building the party. The “gold” they seek is the “gold” they get from the rich open borders jerks!
He is coming into the states where he will be even more formidable. And on the verge of FL and OH all these dirty tricks ( Campaign Manager being accused, elderly rally dude punching protester, etc.) with a new twist of a fricken CANDIDATE telling his OWN supporters to vote for someone else to stop Trump - ON AIR.
Now a Redstate writer is telling protestors to go armed to Trump rallies. In 2016.
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