Posted on 03/07/2016 10:03:24 AM PST by NYRepublican72
Donald Trump will likely win Tuesday’s Idaho Republican presidential vote, a new Idaho Politics Weekly poll finds.
The polls are open 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. Tuesday. Only registered Republicans can vote in the closed contest, but political independents can register as Republicans at the polls and vote.
IPW’s pollster, Dan Jones & Associates, finds in a survey completed before last week’s Super Tuesday presidential results, that Trump has 30 percent support among Republicans, and 24 percent of political independents favor Trump.
Among all Idahoans, Trump is favored by 23 percent of adults. However, that sample includes Democrats and members of other parties who can’t vote Tuesday.
Here’s what Jones finds in the new survey, conducted Feb. 17-26:
Among Republicans:
30 percent favor Trump. 19 percent like Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. 16 percent would vote for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. 5 percent prefer Ohio Gov. John Kasich. 9 percent would vote for someone else if they could. And 11 percent don’t know. Retired doctor Ben Carson dropped out of t
(Excerpt) Read more at idahopoliticsweekly.com ...
That would be an upside surprise as many Trump followers have written ID off.
Trump polls much better than he does when the votes are counted. He need a 12-15 point lead for me to believe he’ll win the. 11 point lead means a very close election and I give the slight edge to Cruz.
Idaho has a 20% threshold... Kasich and Rubio could very well both be shut out of delegates!
I am in Idaho.
I believe this poll is flawed.
It is virtually the same as a poll conducted back in January. Lots has changed since then and somehow this poll is not reflecting it.
Trump may have a lead in a poll like this...but on the ground the Cruz team is much stronger.
Both Cruz and Rubio were in Idaho on Saturday and Sunday.
I believe Cruz has a very good chance of winning on Tuesday.
Now, make no mistake, Trump has some strength here. There are a lot of people, all over the country, including in Idaho, who are simply angry at the GOP, and will vote for Trump as the definitive anti-GOPe candidate.
Honestly, the poll is a mess. It included Carson, who I believe polled 11%, but is not mentioned in the release.
I don’t think it’s a matter of a lead not holding. Trump’s lead has held in most bigger states or states widely polled.
It’s these smaller states without enough data and caucus states where the polls don’t reflect reality.
The poll was conducted from 17-26 of Feb and that was before Carson dropped out.
It’s also before the results of Super Tuesday and Super Saturday. So yeah, this poll is pretty much worthless.
Cruz will win Idaho.
“[poll] conducted Feb. 17-26” so doesn’t reflect last couple debates and last two election rounds. No wonder it looks like old data.
Qualifying States (Rule 40- Majority of delegates from 8 states)
Trump 6, SC, AL, GA, MA, TN, VT
Cruz 3, TX, KS, ME
Rubio 1: PR
if Main’s 37 percent swing from polls is an indicator, and with trump not willing to put up 16 bucks to fight negative ads, anything can happen
Is Idaho a caucus state?
“That would be an upside surprise as many Trump followers have written ID off.”
Why? There are still plenty of decent people in ID.
In ten years it will be nothing but pigdog murder-muzzies, but that still lies in the future.
I tend to agree with you. This poll may have been accurate during the time it covered, but much seems to have changed in two or three weeks. At the very least, Carson is out and Rubio’s support appears to be collapsing.
Nope.
VT was an 8-8 split with Kasich, so I don’t think it qualifies.
Idaho is a closed primary. Trump has underperformed and Cruz has overperformed the polls in the closed primaries and caucuses so far.
If anything like last Sat, Cruz wins by 20.
Vote!
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