That would be an upside surprise as many Trump followers have written ID off.
Trump polls much better than he does when the votes are counted. He need a 12-15 point lead for me to believe he’ll win the. 11 point lead means a very close election and I give the slight edge to Cruz.
Idaho has a 20% threshold... Kasich and Rubio could very well both be shut out of delegates!
I am in Idaho.
I believe this poll is flawed.
It is virtually the same as a poll conducted back in January. Lots has changed since then and somehow this poll is not reflecting it.
Trump may have a lead in a poll like this...but on the ground the Cruz team is much stronger.
Both Cruz and Rubio were in Idaho on Saturday and Sunday.
I believe Cruz has a very good chance of winning on Tuesday.
Now, make no mistake, Trump has some strength here. There are a lot of people, all over the country, including in Idaho, who are simply angry at the GOP, and will vote for Trump as the definitive anti-GOPe candidate.
Cruz will win Idaho.
Qualifying States (Rule 40- Majority of delegates from 8 states)
Trump 6, SC, AL, GA, MA, TN, VT
Cruz 3, TX, KS, ME
Rubio 1: PR
Idaho is a closed primary. Trump has underperformed and Cruz has overperformed the polls in the closed primaries and caucuses so far.
If anything like last Sat, Cruz wins by 20.
Vote!
30 + 19 + 16 + 5 = 70
That is 30% Undecided. There have been four contests so far where undecideds have been 10% or higher. Cruz has done very well in all of them.
Louisiana with 10% Undecided +36% higher than he polled
Alabama with 10.3% Undecided +43% higher
Oklahoma with12.1% Undecided +69% higher
and Kansas with 24.5% Undecided +124% higher
The undecideds have been breaking to Cruz. (Caveat, in Virginia with 9.9% undecided, they broke for Rubio and Kasich)
The internals of this poll are suspect. These are not likely voters. If the numbers end up being close to these I would really be surprised.
I think Cruz will win Idaho, Trump seems to be too money stingy. Like many episodes of The Apprentice a team won based on just monetary numbers, abd its a flaw in the Trump strategy.
You go cheap on a state it will spoil momentum.
I hope Trump sees that.
This poll is close to worthless if you are looking for an accurate feel for how Idaho will vote tomorrow. A poll taken over nine days ending February 26 must have a margin of error around 20% for a March 8 vote.
I agree, very wary of these polls now.
VERY OLD POLL
STALE
These days Trump 30 to Cruz 19 is well within the Margin of Error.
That’s funny, it’s the same thing they were saying about Iowa, Kansas, and Maine.
They were also saying that Trump would win Kentucky and Louisana by double digits.
If the Idaho primary were to match that poll Trump would get all delegates. I have no confidence in that poll.
“Only Voters registered as Republican are eligible to participate.
Tuesday 8 March 2016: All 32 of Idaho’s National Convention delegates are pledged to Presidential contenders based on the vote in today’s Presidential Primary.
* If one candidate wins more than 50% of the National Convention Delegates, that candidate receives all the National Convention Delegates. [Idaho Republican Party State Rules. Idaho Rules for Selection of Delegates to the National Convention and State Convention. Article VI. Section 3.(a)]
* Otherwise, if at least 1 candidate receives 20% or more of the statewide vote, the National Conventions delegates are allocated proportionally to those candidates receiving 20% or more of the statewide vote. [Idaho Republican Party State Rules. Idaho Rules for Selection of Delegates to the National Convention and State Convention. Article VI. Section 3.(b)]
* Otherwise, National Conventions delegates are allocated proportionally. [Idaho Republican Party State Rules. Idaho Rules for Selection of Delegates to the National Convention and State Convention. Article VI. Section 3.(b)]
A NOTE re: Rounding: All rounding will be done to the nearest whole number. Any rounding and/or over/under allocated delegates will be handled by the Nominating Committee.”
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/ID-R