Posted on 03/07/2016 10:03:24 AM PST by NYRepublican72
Donald Trump will likely win Tuesday’s Idaho Republican presidential vote, a new Idaho Politics Weekly poll finds.
The polls are open 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. Tuesday. Only registered Republicans can vote in the closed contest, but political independents can register as Republicans at the polls and vote.
IPW’s pollster, Dan Jones & Associates, finds in a survey completed before last week’s Super Tuesday presidential results, that Trump has 30 percent support among Republicans, and 24 percent of political independents favor Trump.
Among all Idahoans, Trump is favored by 23 percent of adults. However, that sample includes Democrats and members of other parties who can’t vote Tuesday.
Here’s what Jones finds in the new survey, conducted Feb. 17-26:
Among Republicans:
30 percent favor Trump. 19 percent like Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. 16 percent would vote for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. 5 percent prefer Ohio Gov. John Kasich. 9 percent would vote for someone else if they could. And 11 percent don’t know. Retired doctor Ben Carson dropped out of t
(Excerpt) Read more at idahopoliticsweekly.com ...
30 + 19 + 16 + 5 = 70
That is 30% Undecided. There have been four contests so far where undecideds have been 10% or higher. Cruz has done very well in all of them.
Louisiana with 10% Undecided +36% higher than he polled
Alabama with 10.3% Undecided +43% higher
Oklahoma with12.1% Undecided +69% higher
and Kansas with 24.5% Undecided +124% higher
The undecideds have been breaking to Cruz. (Caveat, in Virginia with 9.9% undecided, they broke for Rubio and Kasich)
Ah the ME caucus where 12% had reported in and then nothing for well over an hour.
The establishment just gives out the results and who won the state.
Nah nothing fishy there, move on.
sarc
VT might not. It’s right at 50%. Just checked the definition of “majority” and most say “more than half”.
So you’re probably right.
The internals of this poll are suspect. These are not likely voters. If the numbers end up being close to these I would really be surprised.
Logical fallacy: Too few alternatives.
In almost every state so far, the late-deciding voters almost entirely broke against Trump. So if someone voting tomorrow is still undecided, chances are high that it will NOT be a vote for Trump. It looks like if you are not already a Trump supporter, you won’t be on primary day.
I think Cruz will win Idaho, Trump seems to be too money stingy. Like many episodes of The Apprentice a team won based on just monetary numbers, abd its a flaw in the Trump strategy.
You go cheap on a state it will spoil momentum.
I hope Trump sees that.
Hope the poll is wrong. While I like TX I always thought I’d move home to Idaho. I don’t think I could do it if they’ve slipped that far down the rabbit hole.
Looking through the links now ,t hanks.
I watched that night of the ME election and my oldest son who will get to vote for the first time next week said why are no one else reporting.
I cam in the front room and saw the TV and it still said 12%
Strange I though, maybe ME has a bad storm or something. waited and waited, and nothing.
Then my son lets me know they are saying who won and I was gob smacked. I have never seen anything like that before.
This poll is close to worthless if you are looking for an accurate feel for how Idaho will vote tomorrow. A poll taken over nine days ending February 26 must have a margin of error around 20% for a March 8 vote.
I agree, very wary of these polls now.
Hello again.
And unfortunately all we’ll get out of a smaller state like Idaho.....
Now that we know that the GOPe is counting the votes at caucuses, expect a magic 30% jump for Cruz.
You know....because his “message is resonating”.
Please stop. This is pure speculation. There was no recent polling data coming out of Maine, and anecdotal comments about voters being there to support Trump are useless.
It is clear that the polls in other states going into Saturday were accurate regarding Trump. Trump hit his polling numbers in the places we had recent numbers. It is Cruz that took the undecideds and voters from Rubio, giving him the huge boost. We will probably see the same phenomenon going forward.
Why is this happening? It’s likely due to Romney’s speech (which actually surprises me a lot), and Cruz actually talking policy at the debate, while Rubio and Trump argued like school boys. Trump’s act is only working for a fixed percent of the Republican electorate, albeit a large percentage (but not a majority). The rest are taking a pass.
Trump may win, but please don’t accuse anyone of cheating unless you actually have some proof.
VERY OLD POLL
STALE
These days Trump 30 to Cruz 19 is well within the Margin of Error.
Oh so where Trump is popular, you have a map that proclaims that those people must be doing racist internet searches!
Because correlation is causation!
For a bunch of so-called consistent conservatives, you guys sound like the most retarded viewers of the Daily Show.
If Cruz manages to win with the gope’s help, I CANNOT wait for the media to turn these cannons on him just so I watch his followers melt down wondering why have their “friends” turned on them.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.