Posted on 03/01/2016 7:59:52 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Caveats galore abound for this new CNN/ORC poll, released on Super Tuesday morning, but let’s tackle the data first. As other polls have shown, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders both would beat Donald Trump if the general election was held today instead of fifteen primary contests. They would have a tougher time beating either Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz, although those results end up in the margin of error:
Both of the remaining Democratic candidates for president easily top Republican front-runner Donald Trump in hypothetical general election match-ups,according to a new CNN/ORC Poll.
But Hillary Clinton, who is well ahead in the Democratic race for the presidency, would likely face a stronger challenge should Florida Sen. Marco Rubio or Texas Sen. Ted Cruz capture the Republican nomination for president.
In the scenario that appears most likely to emerge from the primary contests, Clinton tops Trump 52% to 44% among registered voters. That result has tilted in Clinton’s favor since the last CNN/ORC Poll on the match-up in January.
But when the former secretary of state faces off with either of the other two top Republicans, things are much tighter and roughly the same as they were in January. Clinton trails against Rubio, with 50% choosing the Florida senator compared to 47% for Clinton, identical to the results in January. Against Cruz, Clinton holds 48% to his 49%, a slight tightening from a 3-point race in January to a 1-point match-up now.
Caveat One: The general election won’t be held today. In fact, national polling at this stage is at best only a general guideline even in the primary contests, most useful for psychological impact on voters’ perspective on rational choices in the remaining primaries. The general election is still several months off, and in between there will be conventions, endorsements, unendorsements, news stories, oppo research, a pending criminal investigation and a pending civil fraud action, and even a World Series. Electability issues exist, of course, but to look at this poll as a definitive look at how a race will unfold in November is only slightly more reliable than rune-casting, as I’ve noted before.
Caveat Two: This poll uses a sample of 920 registered voters, not likely voters — so we’re not even sure they’re voting in primaries, let alone the general election. Some will respond by noting that it’s way too early to run a likely-voter screen on a question about November’s election, to which I’d respond: See Caveat One.
Caveat Three: Take a look at the responses on the issue questions in this poll. Trump leads most of them, and he leads the other Republican candidates on all of them. Most presidential elections are about the economy, and Trump leads Clinton by 13 points and Sanders by 21 on that issue. National security issues are a mixed bag; Trump edges Clinton 33/30 on terrorism, while Clinton leads Trump on foreign policy 37/21, with Sanders a distant third in both cases. On immigration, Trump leads Clinton 31/25 and Sanders by 15 points. It’s difficult to look at that and credit either Rubio (who comes in second among Republicans on all of these issues, including immigration) or Cruz with having a better chance of beating Hillary or Bernie in November, at least with the data in this poll.
Democrats aren’t buying this, either:
But there’s another group of Democrats warning that Trump’s unconventional approach — and the success it’s brought him in the GOP primary — means the rules underlying past elections are out the window this time. They’re concerned that Democratic leaders and strategists may be misreading the currents propelling Trump’s rise, and they’re cautioning against the notion that a Trump nomination would pre-ordain the next Democrat in the White House.
“It’s very possible that he could win. Anything is possible in this race,” said Licy DoCanto, head of The DoCanto Group, a public policy consulting firm.
Trump, DoCanto noted, has already defied the countless predictions from both sides of the aisle that his campaign would fade into the night.
“That’s continuing to puzzle those who stare and history and say, ‘This can’t be possible,’ ” said DoCanto, who served as an aide to former Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) and the late Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.).
My advice: Cast your primary/caucus ballot for the candidate you feel would make the best president, and let the head-to-head question wait for the convention. Consider these polls as mainly an entertaining way to look at the long picture, but with little connection to reality for now.
Funny how that 'credible' ideology is not winning over the majority of Republican voters now, but somehow will win over the majority of the general electorate in November.
Must be an outlier! /s
But, what if it’s reality?
Oops! With apology to Rick Perry...
Whenever I am working some type of mathematical problem for work or daily life... I always try to make sure my answer makes sense before I take action. In this case we have 30% more voters than normal showing up for Republican Caucuses and Primaries. We have 30% less people showing up for the Democrat contests. On the Republican side we have one candidate who is winning decisively. On the Democrat side we have one candidate who is losing decisively. So on its face this poll quite obviously does not add up. The fact that the losing candidates and the GOPe are embracing it this morning is to be expected but reeks of desperation.
LOL, Sanders over Trump....ok I’ll stop reading this crap.
You said: “Nonsense. These are being put out there to influence voters.
No way can Cruz or Rubio beat either dem. < - Fact.”
No, these are the same kinds of polls we see every election year from the same polling sources. Sometimes they tell us things we like, and sometimes they do not. It is important to be rational about this.
Who believes that CNN wants the Republican to win this election anyways?
You said: “Funny how that ‘credible’ ideology is not winning over the majority of Republican voters now”
I would say it is sad, not funny.
And we are talking about actual polling data, and lots of it. Denying the data might make you feel better, but the data remains.
The difference between you and me is that I believe the polls are telling me my candidate (Cruz) is going to lose against Trump in most of the states today. And by the same token, the same data at this point suggests that Hillary will beat Trump in the general.
Live by polls; die by polls.
Yet, polls that show Trump up big, based on 400-500 data points are good. Amirite? This has been a trend for months now. Trump loses heads up with Cruz, Clinton, and Sanders.
To paraphrase Perry Como, “Don’t let the stars get in your eyes, don’t let The Don break your heart...”
Carter was “ahead” of Reagan in polls right up to election day. So believe what you want, wishful thinking rats. (And GOPe)
Actually I think ALL poles should be outlawed. They’re use has been bastardized to sway voter opinion/results for a particular outcome.........of course, that’s just my 2 cent worth of an opinion and that’s about what it’s worth. Having said all that, believe it or not I intend to vote for Ted Cruz in the Fla. primary.
Please keep saying this; please please keep saying it even if you know it’s a lie - that should be easy please keep saying it.
I'm more than happy to see what happens after the conventions. I disbelieve any general election poll at this point in time, particularly ones that are only being asked of registered voters vs. likely voters, and even that doesn't mean anything at this point in time.
Enthusiasm means more this election than most others. There will be little enthusiasm for Mr. Trump from the conservatives who are pulling for Mr. Cruz. That's a given. There will also be a lot of enthusiasm from every other demographic that will more than make up for the loss of conservative voters, especially when large numbers of dem voters defect for Mr. Trump.
It's a shame that Mr. Cruz is imploding, but it really didn't matter all that much as he is also lacking the enthusiasm factor, outside of conservatives, and that fact also is another reason I disbelieve the head to head polls and discount them as manufactured for an ulterior motive.
On the other hand, you have Clinton who has low enthusiasm overall, and then there will be the disaffected “millenials” who will sit out due to the fact that Sanders didn't get chosen.
Adding all of that up, and more, tells me that there is a lot of disinformation being offered up, and that fraud on voting day in November may be the only thing that actually matters as the winner may already be chosen.
Following polls before the last week in October cracks me up.
No, seriously.
Like, Jimmy Carter was up 62-32 over Reagan in the late winter of 1979-80. But then, there was a campaign. You know, a campaign FOR PRESIDENT. You know, after, like, Labor Day?
If the method of having idiots vote has any merit, it’s that most of them are able to change their minds when confronted with the facts.
When Trump is through with Hillary, she won’t be able to be elected activities director at the Villages, never mind President.
That was a great post.
“Trump is a weapon of the Democrat party. “
Seems like the weapon of those that rather stay home and complain.
Cruz supporters after Iowa:
All polls are inaccurate. They dont see ground game and secret armies.
Cruz supporters today:
This poll proves Trump I guaranteed to lose!!
I believe it, and celebrate you for your choice.
You make too much sense.
Stop!
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