Posted on 03/01/2016 7:59:52 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Caveats galore abound for this new CNN/ORC poll, released on Super Tuesday morning, but let’s tackle the data first. As other polls have shown, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders both would beat Donald Trump if the general election was held today instead of fifteen primary contests. They would have a tougher time beating either Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz, although those results end up in the margin of error:
Both of the remaining Democratic candidates for president easily top Republican front-runner Donald Trump in hypothetical general election match-ups,according to a new CNN/ORC Poll.
But Hillary Clinton, who is well ahead in the Democratic race for the presidency, would likely face a stronger challenge should Florida Sen. Marco Rubio or Texas Sen. Ted Cruz capture the Republican nomination for president.
In the scenario that appears most likely to emerge from the primary contests, Clinton tops Trump 52% to 44% among registered voters. That result has tilted in Clinton’s favor since the last CNN/ORC Poll on the match-up in January.
But when the former secretary of state faces off with either of the other two top Republicans, things are much tighter and roughly the same as they were in January. Clinton trails against Rubio, with 50% choosing the Florida senator compared to 47% for Clinton, identical to the results in January. Against Cruz, Clinton holds 48% to his 49%, a slight tightening from a 3-point race in January to a 1-point match-up now.
Caveat One: The general election won’t be held today. In fact, national polling at this stage is at best only a general guideline even in the primary contests, most useful for psychological impact on voters’ perspective on rational choices in the remaining primaries. The general election is still several months off, and in between there will be conventions, endorsements, unendorsements, news stories, oppo research, a pending criminal investigation and a pending civil fraud action, and even a World Series. Electability issues exist, of course, but to look at this poll as a definitive look at how a race will unfold in November is only slightly more reliable than rune-casting, as I’ve noted before.
Caveat Two: This poll uses a sample of 920 registered voters, not likely voters — so we’re not even sure they’re voting in primaries, let alone the general election. Some will respond by noting that it’s way too early to run a likely-voter screen on a question about November’s election, to which I’d respond: See Caveat One.
Caveat Three: Take a look at the responses on the issue questions in this poll. Trump leads most of them, and he leads the other Republican candidates on all of them. Most presidential elections are about the economy, and Trump leads Clinton by 13 points and Sanders by 21 on that issue. National security issues are a mixed bag; Trump edges Clinton 33/30 on terrorism, while Clinton leads Trump on foreign policy 37/21, with Sanders a distant third in both cases. On immigration, Trump leads Clinton 31/25 and Sanders by 15 points. It’s difficult to look at that and credit either Rubio (who comes in second among Republicans on all of these issues, including immigration) or Cruz with having a better chance of beating Hillary or Bernie in November, at least with the data in this poll.
Democrats aren’t buying this, either:
But there’s another group of Democrats warning that Trump’s unconventional approach — and the success it’s brought him in the GOP primary — means the rules underlying past elections are out the window this time. They’re concerned that Democratic leaders and strategists may be misreading the currents propelling Trump’s rise, and they’re cautioning against the notion that a Trump nomination would pre-ordain the next Democrat in the White House.
“It’s very possible that he could win. Anything is possible in this race,” said Licy DoCanto, head of The DoCanto Group, a public policy consulting firm.
Trump, DoCanto noted, has already defied the countless predictions from both sides of the aisle that his campaign would fade into the night.
“That’s continuing to puzzle those who stare and history and say, ‘This can’t be possible,’ ” said DoCanto, who served as an aide to former Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) and the late Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.).
My advice: Cast your primary/caucus ballot for the candidate you feel would make the best president, and let the head-to-head question wait for the convention. Consider these polls as mainly an entertaining way to look at the long picture, but with little connection to reality for now.
I'm SURE a poll from the Communist News Network can be thoroughly trusted and unbiased.
/sarc
You said...
“This is a common polling result from several different polling outfits going back for weeks. Trump loses to Clinton. Rubio and Cruz win. Denying the data does’t make the reality any different.”
And he continues to have record high negative ratings that even beat her’s.
The Trump supporters seem to want to ignore that. According to them, the country loves trump but the data says otherwise.
It’s usually a “well, I know lots of people who are voting for Trump so it isn’t true” lol
It’s amazing to me that, on a conservative web site, there are people that refer to Cruz as a snake. He is the ONLY candidate that cares one bit about the constitution.
Trump is a complete fraud. The Obama of the Republican party. And his followers are just as blind as those that pledged blind allegiance to Obama.
And other polls give advantage to trump
The average Democrat has no idea who Cruz is, they probably confuse him with Rubio. Once the Average Democrat got to know Creepy, slimy, Holier than thou, Cruz, he would drop like a stone.
What makes you think Bernie Sanders wouldn’t be competetive in the general election?
Consider who won in 2008. This isn’t 1972 anymore.
The Cruzio brothers can barely get above 20% in the GOP primary, yet somehow they are going to get over 50% when you throw Dems in the mix. LOL!
CNN spent the entire day yesterday attacking Trump, yeah their poll is trustworthy.
All this says is that people are smart enough to not support the winner while their hopefuls are in the race. The number of Democrats I have talked with who find Trump preferable to Clinton/Sanders belies this entire poll.
According to the article the poll asked seven different questions. Reading how they did this is like reading stereo instructions. Wow.
That's because the conservative voters will quite possibly stay home rather than vote for Trump. And that will not bode well for his presidential run, nor the house or senate candidates that are up for election this year.
Trump is a weapon of the Democrat party. He exists because he pretends to be a conservative. His only claim to fame is that he has never been a public "servant'. He sure knows how to buy them though.
Wonder how they modeled the double sized horde that is coming out to vote in these Republican primaries?
If you are not modeling expected turnout then the poll will undersample Republicans.
Please see my post # 51.
So Cruz and Rubio can’t beat Trump but supposedly they can beat Hillary?
How does that make sense?
Probably took the poll in a corner of Miami where Rubio parties.
You said: “The average Democrat has no idea who Cruz is, they probably confuse him with Rubio. Once the Average Democrat got to know Creepy, slimy, Holier than thou, Cruz, he would drop like a stone.”
You could say much the same about Trump. The libs in the media have not begun to expose him yet. They are waiting for him to win.
The difference between Cruz and Trump is that Cruz is actually a conservative, so he will actually have a credible ideology to campaign on against Hillary.
Not just the primaries! When voters are bombarded day in and day out with "polls" that show their candidate can't win, the psychological impact is priceless: they give up thinking their candidate can win and stay home.
THAT is the media and the polls intended effect!
Hillary Could Lose to Trump in Democratic New York - NY Post
It's BS. How is it that candidates not polling above 18% in their own party suddenly become formidable opponents to Hillary or Bernie in the general?
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