I'm more than happy to see what happens after the conventions. I disbelieve any general election poll at this point in time, particularly ones that are only being asked of registered voters vs. likely voters, and even that doesn't mean anything at this point in time.
Enthusiasm means more this election than most others. There will be little enthusiasm for Mr. Trump from the conservatives who are pulling for Mr. Cruz. That's a given. There will also be a lot of enthusiasm from every other demographic that will more than make up for the loss of conservative voters, especially when large numbers of dem voters defect for Mr. Trump.
It's a shame that Mr. Cruz is imploding, but it really didn't matter all that much as he is also lacking the enthusiasm factor, outside of conservatives, and that fact also is another reason I disbelieve the head to head polls and discount them as manufactured for an ulterior motive.
On the other hand, you have Clinton who has low enthusiasm overall, and then there will be the disaffected “millenials” who will sit out due to the fact that Sanders didn't get chosen.
Adding all of that up, and more, tells me that there is a lot of disinformation being offered up, and that fraud on voting day in November may be the only thing that actually matters as the winner may already be chosen.
I really appreciate the thoughtful response. I agree with most of what you said, except that I don’t think there is a disinformation campaign targeting Trump in all of these polls. Too many different sources are saying the same thing.
I think at this point in time, Hillary beats Trump. That could change after the primaries are over, but it still remains to be seen.