Newsday/News 12 poll: Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton Lead On LI (Trump Beats Hillary in Long Island)

Newsday ^ | February 25

[Helicondelta]

Donald Trump is far ahead of the Republican field on Long Island and Hillary Clinton holds a commanding lead in the Democratic contest, according to a Newsday/News 12/Siena College survey of Nassau and Suffolk county voters.

And in a potential head-to-head matchup, Long Islanders give Trump a 3 percentage point edge over Clinton

[Jane Long]

When we travel to NYC, which is fairly often, EVERYONE we talk to is for Trump. Enthusiastically for Trump.

[Drew68]

if trump could somehow snatch ny or cali away from the dems that would be game set match

If he snatches NY, it's over. Hillary will be conceding before the polls in California even close. That's a pretty tall order but forcing Hillary to spend money campaigning in New York? YUUUGE!!!

[Jim Noble]

Turnout in the DeBlasio election was 17%.

[Cowboy Bob]

New York State last voted for a Republican candidate in 1984. Goerge HW Bush won without it, as did George W. Bush (twice).

While it would be great to win NY, it is not necessary to win it to get to the White House.

[Drew68]

If Trump can win his home state the last thing it will be is easy but it looks to be in play. That’s a small miracle in itself.

Simply making New York competitive is a monumental accomplishment.

[tflabo]

Yes turnout vote will be a yuuge wildcard factor. OblahMao got the minorities to turn out but Hellary maybe not so much. If Trump can cut big into the black and hispanic votes he will need to win there. What a nice prize if he wins NY but if he takes MA. and NJ what a nice cosolation prize those states will be.

[fedupjohn]

Trump will win NY, NJ, MA easily.

I agree!

[FreeReign]

In '12, Obama won NY by 26 points and he won LI by about 4.5 points.

So if a Trump 3% on LI lead represents a 7.5% shift, I don't think it will be a big enough shift to carry the state.

[FES0844]

I just wish someone would ask her what did she do for upstate NYers?

[o2bfree]

So if a Trump 3% on LI lead represents a 7.5% shift, I don't think it will be a big enough shift to carry the state.

A 7.5% swing nationwide means Welcome President Trump!

[AustinBill]

To win NY State, Trump doesn’t have to win NYC. All he has to do is move the needle from NYC voting 98% D to something like 80% D. There are enough blue collar crossover votes in NYC to do that easily.

[Dr. Ursus]

I still live there and the Reps. aren’t much better,but we’re down to he’s our thief!

[CTrent1564]

Trump could actually make Hillary have to defend the mid-atlantic and New England states. If Trump can get 2 to 3 of those states, say Maine, NJ and New Hampshire for example, that reduces the Dems electoral head start they have had in the last 2 elections.

[FreeReign]

True.

[dp0622]

while I don’t share your enthusiasm, I think she will have to waste time and money in NY.

but who knows, you could be right.

[LS]

I wanna believe, but how does LI= NY state win? How does that offset 8 m in NYC?

[AustinBill]

The LI population is close to 6 million, so a net Trump advantage there is very significant in the overall race for NY state.

[LS]

What is upstate?

[AustinBill]

Upstate NY is strongly Republican outside of D strongholds like Ithaca. The problem is that the Red upstate areas are swamped by the "Blue hole" of NYC in most elections. It's an interesting dynamic.

Make no mistake, NY's 29 electoral votes will most definitely be in play if Trump is the nominee. Anyone else and NY will remain a very safe Blue state.

[LS]

With a REASONABLENESS GOP turnout, can LI and upstate offset NYC?