[LS]

With a REASONABLENESS GOP turnout, can LI and upstate offset NYC?

[AustinBill]

Yes, very much so. Here's some food for thought. First, read this excellent article by Mark Cunningham about how Trump is winning over the Blue Collar vote (a traditional Democratic stronghold).

Second, spend some time with this great tool for analyzing the demographics of the American electorate and its impact on the Electoral Map. Look what happens if, for example, the Black vote moves from 2012's 93% D to 75% D because Trump is the only candidate talking about the disgrace of 50%+ black youth unemployment and saying he's going to fix that. Or if the non-college educated White vote moves from 62% R up to 70% R or turns out a tad more because they believe Trump is serious about bringing jobs back to America.

With Trump there are so many "paths to victory", D strategists won't be sleeping much this Fall if he's the nominee. It's all in the demographics. That "bigger tent" that the GOPe is always blathering about? Trump is doing it right here, right now.