Posted on 02/20/2016 8:55:29 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Today, South Carolina Republicans cast votes in the 2016 presidential primary. As expected, two things happened. First, Donald Trump wiped the floor with the competition. Second, pundits have overreacted in declaring that his second win clears him a path to the nomination. The latter is not only premature, but rabidly underestimates how the party primary system works. But in due fairness, let's address both points.
Trump continues to be underestimated
This is not a post to bash Donald Trump. In fact, as a student of elections, Trump wildly impresses me. He entered a crowded race in which Republicans had not just a number of choices, but a diverse set of good choices. The GOP had young and old, white and nonwhite, male and female, domestic policy guys and foreign policy wonks, experienced politicians and newcomers. Ben and Jerry may have endorsed Bernie Sanders, but the GOP race quickly became the Baskin Robbins of politics.
Enter Donald Trump. He surely brought something different and new to the table. But along with his success as a businessman and tremendous wealth, he also had an easily critiqued history and absolutely no political experience. Combine that with the lack of polish and decorum expected of presidential contenders, and his candidacy seemed not only easily undermined, but doomed. Everyone underestimated Trump, assuming his brash, flippant, offensive, brutally honest, and clearly genuine rhetoric would force him out of the race quickly. Nothing was further from the truth.
As time went on, he just grew more popular. Comments that would normally force a candidate from the race--and political relevance generally--seemed to propel Trump further. And that success continues. After losing a controversial race to an even more controversial Ted Cruz in Iowa, Trump went on to win in New Hampshire and again tonight in South Carolina. That success is indisputable. It is a testament to a very different candidate, who does whatever he wants, in a year where predictions and expectations are thrown out the window. Actually, somehow Mr. Trump has built a wall to combat common wisdom and he's making the political intelligentsia pay for it.
Tonight's win in South Carolina is not only impressive in itself, but it is in a state that had clear currents and moments that favored other candidates. Jeb Bush should have won South Carolina because his father and brother were successful in the state and still remain very well liked. Marco Rubio should have won South Carolina because his story is a compelling one; his foreign policy chops connect well with a defense-oriented state, and Nikki Haley, the popular Republican governor, endorsed him. Ted Cruz should have won South Carolina because the Republican electorate is deeply conservative and disproportionately evangelical Christian. Donald Trump most certainly should not have won South Carolina. He's a wealthy New York businessman with New York values, multiple divorces, a slight relationship to religion, and a history of supporting liberal causes--traits that typically don't resonate with South Carolina Republicans. Yet, despite all of the things other candidates had going for them and the myriad reasons Trump shouldn't have won, the Palmetto State picked the Donald. His message focused on fear, anger, disgust, and a desire to "Make America Great Again" touched a nerve. It's quite odd. In some ways, "Make America Great Again" is the 2016 version of "Yes, We Can." People are responding to the message not necessarily because of its substance, but it makes them feel the way they want to feel. It inspires them as the kind of alternative they want to see. Earlier this week, I drew parallels between how Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump connect with very different supporters in very similar ways. But perhaps, instead, Donald Trump is the 2016 and Republican version of Barack Obama. Trump supporters hope he can change Obama's "Hope and Change."
There is no reason on paper, by demographics, or by outward appearance Donald Trump should be successful in South Carolina, but alas, he won the primary there and marches on to Nevada and then Super Tuesday with more wind at his back than any other candidate by far. His momentum is huge.
Why Donald Trump is overestimated
Every other Republican candidate--and probably both Democratic candidates--would love to be in Donald Trump's shoes. Dominant, in control of most news cycles, Teflon to scandal and his own gaffes, connecting with should-be-out-of-reach demographic groups with ease, and trouncing the competition. Despite that, the reports of Donald Trump's coronation as the next Republican nominee are quite premature. He may well end up the GOP nominee. Yet, there are several reasons why he may not.
The GOP race remains a crowded field. There are five other candidates of varying success and even if you discount Carson (you should) and Bush (you probably should), Cruz and Rubio are serious contenders. So long as that many candidates remain in the race, it becomes difficult for Trump to amass a majority of delegates heading into Cleveland. Cruz and Rubio may not be able to beat Trump in many of the states to come, but they can be enough of a nuisance to keep him from the type of "clinch" we have seen in previous years after a handful of primaries and caucuses. That moment usually comes early (or early-ish) when it becomes clear someone will march to the convention and the race effectively ends. This year is not one of those years.
Party rules make it hard for Trump to clinch. While some states are winner-take-all in their allocation of delegates. Many are not. Many allocate strictly proportionally or function as a winner-take-all if and only if a candidate receives a supermajority (between 66 percent and 85 percent depending on the state). Trump is "winning" by pulling 30-40 percent of states' votes, making those winner-take-all-thresholds far out of reach. It also makes securing the nomination formally (winning a majority of delegates) or informally (broad support being so obvious that further competition is seen as fruitless) that much more difficult.
Party leaders don't like Donald Trump and they're scared to death of his candidacy. The GOP brass see themselves--right or not--to be in a very strong position this year. Secretary Clinton's candidacy exists in the shadow of scandals and investigations and her primary competition is a self-described socialist. They think their chances to retake the White House are quite good, but only if they have the right candidate. They believe Donald Trump is not that candidate. The Republican primary contest has "uncommitted delegates" (Democrats call them "superdelegates") who are able to cast convention votes without input from voters. There are fewer of them than Democrats have, but in a close primary contest, they may make a difference. These unpledged delegates tend to be state party leaders.
If Republicans head to Cleveland with no candidate securing a majority of delegates (every political pundit's daydream), and a brokered convention comes to fruition, the uncommitted delegates may play an outsized role. So, too, may the party brass--the baron-like establishment that Trump and his supporters rail against. It would be a risky proposition to strip the man with the most delegates from being the nominee, but the party may see it as their only avenue to beating a Democrat in November and thus make it a reality. For the GOP leadership the calculus is easy: if we nominate Trump we absolutely lose; if we give the nomination to someone else, Trump's supporters will be angry, but we at least have a chance of winning. Economists' expected value calculations make that decision a no-brainier. The politician's calculations make it more difficult.
That said, if Republican leadership have any opportunity to usurp Trump's momentum and keep him from being the 2016 Republican Party nominee, they will do it. The crowded field, the primary rules, and the preferences of many in the party mean it's a real possibility. Trump and, in a similar way, Ted Cruz have built campaigns and candidacies based on running against and explicitly spitting in the face of the party brass. They work well with angry voters, but in a brokered convention it is a death knell. A brokered convention is great news for party leaders afraid of Trump, for more mainstream candidates like Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, and for the health of the Republican Party. But at the end of the day, the almost unbelievable state of the Republican primary could be salvaged on the floor of Cleveland's Quicken Loans Arena. If it takes that long, the man or woman chosen in a smoke-filled room may bask in the glow of being the Republican nominee. But the real winner in that situation will be the person Democrats select as their nominee a week later in Philadelphia. In that way, the only thing worse for the Republican Party than Donald Trump would be an establishment-led overthrow of Donald Trump.
For those making absolutist predictions based on the South Carolina results, take a deep breath. This race is nowhere near over. We have no idea who the nominee will be. The only thing Trump's unbelievable win in South Carolina tells us is that the Republican primary will continue to be an unbelievable mess...maybe even a YUGE one.
Brrrrr, that is chilling. The last freaking thing this country needs is Rubio. I’ll work my tail off out here, off the net, to educate the liv on who Rubio is and what he stands for - it’s not America I can promise that much.
“You say many Republicans won’t vote for him. So they’re fine with having Hillary choose Supreme Court justices?”
No, they won’t be fine with it - but that doesn’t mean they’ll vote for Trump. Many Republicans will vote for whoever the nominee is. BUT let’s face it: many Republicans felt like they had to hold their nose to vote for McCain and Romney. For some Republicans - those who really dislike Trump - they might be too turned off to go to the poles as happened in 2012.
Let’s be honest. Trump is a life long liberal who only recently began parroting many Republican/Conservatives ideals. Is there that much of difference between Trump and Clinton?
You bring up the Supreme Court. Did you see this?: http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/423196/trump-praises-his-sister-pro-abortion-extremist-judge-ramesh-ponnuru Honestly, he’s not a conservative on many points. I would vote for him to defeat Clinton, but I am not sure I am getting someone who is all that remarkably different on issues like abortion (no matter what he says about abortion now), eminent domain, gay marriage (no matter what he said a month ago), etc. I do think he would make better trade deals. I do think he could turn the tide on illegal immigration.
Problem is the Carson people aren’t going to Rubio they are going to Trump. Once again our “smart” people have decided their opinions are facts. They aren’t.
The clown, and the Americans are going to win this one. Laughing in your face tonight.
I am a Reagan Republican and after imbeciles in California choose Schwarzenegger over a great conservative like Tom McClintock, hell itself will freeze over before I’ll vote for Trump. Trump is another Arnold and will destroy the nation with a few bows to conservatism and a boatload of Democrat manure.
You are right to be unsure about him winning anything beyond the nomination.
The page after page of rules the Republican Party Establishment in each of the states has set up for delegates is fascinating reading.
In South Carolina, the rules say that if the first place finisher drops out of the presidential race, the second place winner gets the delegates.
In other states the delegates are only bound to candidates on a first ballot, plus the Establishment picks the people who will be the delegates. If they can keep Trump from a first ballot win, the Establishment picked delegates will not longer be bound to Trump.
The application of rules, interpretation of the rules committee at the convention in Cleveland along with puffing up of Marco Rubio by the media may be the last resort.
I would put nothing past the GOPe.......
This website has links in it to each Republican and Democrat primary, caucus contest with the complex rules laid out for delegates in each situation.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/events.phtml?s=c
Perhaps it tells you they really hate Cruz.
Indeed.
If he’s the nominee, not voting for him means supporting Hillary as the next judge-picker
And who will Trump pick, Bill Pryor, the attack dog against Roy Moore. Any Trump success will not end well for America.
I am still shaking my head... Half expecting to find a 'breaking news' report that it is not true.
Well, he isn’t capitalizing on it. He’s bringing it to us to see. I appreciate it.
We’re all hoping to see a better nation.
Let’s patch this up.
Have a good one 2ndDivisionVet...
What the Brookings/communists are saying is that they know the establishment GOPe Party globalists leaders, and they will not let Trump be the nominee even if he has more delegates.
Tom McClintock was too conservative for CA.
The reality is Reagan wouldn’t win today.
Case in point: Ted Cruz in SC.
Less rape = Good for America
From your lips to God’s ears. Yes, consolidate the opposition to Trump. That would be wonderful. I want to see the clown and his supporters taken down. Humility will do them all some good.
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