A better question is how were the entrance polls so wrong?
Every one of them had people going into the caucus locations for Trump 27-23.
because in Iowa you have your neighbors talking you into who to vote, and enough people didn’t want to be seen standing in the Trump corner with the rest of the mouth breathers.
These the same polls that predicted a Romney victory in 2012?
Simply put, polls are not information, polls are opinion swaying devices.
Wishful thinking and ignoring some obvious signs of trouble.
A win in Iowa does not mean a win in the other states. Huckaby won Iowa in 2008 and Santorum won in 2012.
Trump says its the polls that matter most and he is at the top of them still.
Perhaps some people don’t like to talk to pollsters and tend to share certain political leanings?
I think it’s difficult to accurately poll for a small turnout with a big field of candidates.
The total R votes last night was about 150,000 split among 5 major contenders.
Caliph Baraq got over 800,000 votes in Nov 2012.
The MSM polls were done most likely by people who wanted Trump to be in the lead, as Cruz scares the hell out of them...................
The polls weren’t wrong. Creative counting and a conveniently tweaked Microsoft app did the job they were supposed to do.
:: But polls,...A Quinnipiac University poll...out Monday afternoon had Trump beating Cruz 31% to 24%...while...Bloomberg Politics Survey out the day before had the outspoken mogul up 28% to 23% ::
That would be Quinnipiac University in Quinnipiac ^IOWA^, right and Bloomberg is a “surveyor” in Des Moines, right?
All politics is LOCAL!
The media was covering for their favorite candidate.
I wonder how the Donald is going to react to the NY Daily News front pages shown in the original article?
here is a link to one of them:
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/new-york-daily-news-front-pages-presidential-election-gallery-1.2512941
I have heard this question about pollsters in recent elections including those for the English, Israelis.
The pollsters are asking agenda driven questions, not simple binary questions.
No one asks "Will you vote for Trump tomorrow".
Instead they convolute the question like this:
"If you plan on voting tomorrow and considering that a bombastic billionaire, a candidate born in Canada with a Cuban father, or another candidate from hixville Texas also of Cuban heritage, are Republican candidates, who would you vote for the hildabeast or do you feel the berne?"
Polls showing Trump leading were, IMO, wishful thinking. Without significant time nor organization in the state, Trump shouldn't have been anywhere close to Cruz and others in this state.
But Iowa is now over and Cruz NOW must deal with a 22 point deficit in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Good luck with that one.
“How did they get it so wrong?”
They couldn’t predict that Cruz was going to lie about Carson and steal his votes.
Everything about Iowa’s role in the presidential election process is absurd. Their Caucus system is a joke. There are problems and inconsistencies in their caucus system every Presidential election year. It is a state with a comical election system which includes flipping a coin to decide a tie ( Clinton won 6 coin flips in a row this year) and where the overwhelming majority of voters can’t be bothered to make it to their state’s contest. It is first because there is a state law mandating it has to be. WTH is up with that? Are they going to go stompy foot and decide not to vote at all if another saner state goes first (that would be fine with me)!
No one has land-lines anymore. All cell phones with caller ID.