Posted on 02/02/2016 10:23:32 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
Iowa pollsters' losses were Ted Cruz's gain Monday night, as even the most storied surveys of the Hawkeye State's electorate missed the Texas senator's surging momentum.
Cruz cruised to victory in the early-voting state's caucuses, easily beating bombastic billionaire Donald Trump 27.6% to 24.3%, with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio finishing a close third, with 23.1%.
But polls, even ones released just hours before voters headed to caucus-locations, showed Trump in the solid lead: A Quinnipiac University poll out Monday afternoon had Trump beating Cruz 31% to 24%, while a Des Moines Register / Bloomberg Politics survey out the day before had the outspoken mogul up 28% to 23%.
How did they get it so wrong?
(Excerpt) Read more at nydailynews.com ...
:: But polls,...A Quinnipiac University poll...out Monday afternoon had Trump beating Cruz 31% to 24%...while...Bloomberg Politics Survey out the day before had the outspoken mogul up 28% to 23% ::
That would be Quinnipiac University in Quinnipiac ^IOWA^, right and Bloomberg is a “surveyor” in Des Moines, right?
All politics is LOCAL!
And do you remember, it was MONTHS before the elites finally acknowledged Santorum as the Iowa winner. They immediately declared Romney the winner!
The media was covering for their favorite candidate.
And Dole won in 88.....................IIRC..................
I wonder how the Donald is going to react to the NY Daily News front pages shown in the original article?
here is a link to one of them:
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/new-york-daily-news-front-pages-presidential-election-gallery-1.2512941
Can’t these people make up their own minds? I would totally dislike my neighbors telling me who I should vote for.
The GOPe would be just as happy with Rubio and his 3rd place finish was too close.
I have heard this question about pollsters in recent elections including those for the English, Israelis.
The pollsters are asking agenda driven questions, not simple binary questions.
No one asks "Will you vote for Trump tomorrow".
Instead they convolute the question like this:
"If you plan on voting tomorrow and considering that a bombastic billionaire, a candidate born in Canada with a Cuban father, or another candidate from hixville Texas also of Cuban heritage, are Republican candidates, who would you vote for the hildabeast or do you feel the berne?"
No, I don’t. How long was it?
Polls showing Trump leading were, IMO, wishful thinking. Without significant time nor organization in the state, Trump shouldn't have been anywhere close to Cruz and others in this state.
But Iowa is now over and Cruz NOW must deal with a 22 point deficit in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Good luck with that one.
“How did they get it so wrong?”
They couldn’t predict that Cruz was going to lie about Carson and steal his votes.
Yup. David Stone or whatever his name is left the Trump campaign very early on saying that Trump won’t conduct internal polling.
A campaign needs honest internal polling to give them an idea how they’re actually doing with who on what issues. Its how a campaign knows how and where to allocate resources for the greatest effect.
yo-yo how appropriate... most people get rid of those after Jr. High.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/trump-loss-could-mean-trouble-ahead/article/2582165
“....................Most of the people at the Trump event had attended caucuses earlier in the evening. At those caucuses, the presiding officer asked whether there was a representative from each campaign present to speak, and, if not, whether anyone attending would like to speak on a particular candidate’s behalf. At the caucus I attended, in Pleasant Hill, a suburb just east of Des Moines, there was no one to speak for Trump — no representative of the campaign — and no voter willing to stand up and speak on his behalf. (The precinct ended in a Cruz landslide: 110 votes for the Texas senator, versus 36 for Trump and 34 for Rubio.)
At the Sheraton, some Trump supporters had similar stories.
“We were at a caucus and Trump didn’t even have anyone there to speak for him,” one man told me.
“That’s insane,” added a man nearby.
“Donald Trump : ‘It will be wonderful. It will be glorious., You will be amazed, Just wait’”
Well, at least it was wonderful and glorious last night!
Oh my!
=0
Everything about Iowa’s role in the presidential election process is absurd. Their Caucus system is a joke. There are problems and inconsistencies in their caucus system every Presidential election year. It is a state with a comical election system which includes flipping a coin to decide a tie ( Clinton won 6 coin flips in a row this year) and where the overwhelming majority of voters can’t be bothered to make it to their state’s contest. It is first because there is a state law mandating it has to be. WTH is up with that? Are they going to go stompy foot and decide not to vote at all if another saner state goes first (that would be fine with me)!
So true.
The only poll he cares about is how many in the MSM call him for interviews.
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